Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 161033
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
633 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will move into the area this afternoon
and linger into Wednesday. Dry high pressure will return
Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will cross the area
Saturday. Much cooler air is expected behind the front early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Moisture should become a bit deeper associated with convergence
ahead of the front approaching from the west. Hi-res models have
backed off on morning showers, but will continue to include low
slight chance pops across the northern counties after sunrise.
The bigger issue this morning is fog and stratus due to the
increased low-level moisture combined with nocturnal cooling.
The models appear to favor more stratus than fog due to a
possible low level jet. The highest potential for fog appears to
be across the southeast Midlands. Morning temperatures should
be a few degrees warmer than last night.

The front will move in during the afternoon and stall across
the region during the evening. Convection will be weak given
best upper level support remains to the northwest, but still
expected scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be similar to Monday with highs in the low
80s north to upper 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The front will remain in the area tonight, resulting in
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for overnight lows.
Should see lows in in the mid 60s to around 70 under mostly
cloudy skies. The chance of rain will linger. We kept the
highest chance for rain across the north Midlands...closest to
the front.

The cold front is expected to move through the Midlands and CSRA
Wednesday. Models indicated slowly falling heights with weak cold air
advection during the afternoon. The chance for rain will diminish
during the afternoon with drying in the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere. The day will begin the above normal temperatures and
afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid 70s north to the
mid 80s south.

A dry and cool airmass will overspread the region Wednesday night
through Friday as surface high pressure ridges into the area from
the north. Highs in the mid 60s north to lower 70s south on Thursday
will modify slightly to the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday.  Nighttime
lows in the upper 40s and 50s Wednesday will range through the 40s
Thursday night under a clear sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday
night allowing a cold front to cross the region Saturday. Increasing
moisture and lift will bring a chance of showers Friday night
into Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible during
the day on Saturday given weak instability. Dry weather and
cooler temperatures will return Sunday through Monday as deep
upper trough and surface high pressure crosses the eastern
states.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Focus is on fog/stratus this morning. Low level moisture is high
which has led to patchy fog. However, a 25 kt low-level jet is
also facilitating stratus formation across the CSRA and
southern and eastern Midlands. Will continue to indicate MVFR
to IFR conditions at AGS/DNL/OGB. High clouds over the Columbia
area are keeping conditions VFR at CAE/CUB. Gradual improvement
is expected by mid-morning. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will then develop this afternoon and evening
along and ahead of a slow moving front, potentially persisting
overnight. Fog and stratus are once again likely on Wednesday
morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Widespread mainly late night and early morning MVFR or IFR
conditions associated with a front may occur Tuesday Night into
Wednesday Morning, then dry ridging should dominate Thursday
and Friday with VFR conditions. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible
Saturday in showers and thunderstorms with the next cold front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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