263
FXUS63 KDLH 140925
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
425 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwesterly winds behind the front will usher another plume
  of Canadian wildfire smoke into the area today, lingering
  into tonight and Tuesday.

- Additional rain and storms are possible Monday night through
  Wednesday as a slow moving cold front moves through the
  region, with cooler temperatures to follow.

- A dry period is expected Thursday into Friday, followed by a
  return of precipitation chances for next weekend. Temperatures
  will gradually warm through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Smoke...

A surge of smoke that has flowed into the area behind the front
that moved through the area overnight will affect mainly
northern Minnesota this morning, before gradually dissipating
somewhat this afternoon and evening. Smoke is expected to linger
tonight and into Tuesday, but with a more inconsistent density
than today. I have included areas of fog in the forecast through
Tuesday, but it will be much less noticeable than today.

Today...

The cold front that is sagging through the forecast area this
morning will stall across the southern portions of the CWA and
gradually get more and more diffuse. With only a small change in
airmass, it will be warm and sticky once again today. Northwest
Wisconsin will get into the mid to upper 80s, with lower to mid
80s farther north.

Tonight through Wednesday...

Zonal flow aloft over the high plains has some embedded
shortwaves that will ride east across the forecast area in the
coming days. These will interact with an 850mb baroclinic zone
that is setting up over the MT/Canada border this morning, and
will extend east along the US/Canada border today, and into
northern MN tonight. Along/south of this mid level boundary, an
inverted trough is expected to develop, with cyclogenesis
developing over Wyoming today. The resulting low gradually sags
southeast into Kansas by Wednesday. The inverted trough
associated with it which extends up over Minnesota tonight will
gradually sag south through Wednesday as well. This set up is a
fairly classic set-up for an extended period of showers and
thunderstorms that move across the forecast area. In fact, they
may begin as early as this afternoon as the convection currently
over NE MT and southern Saskatchewan pushes east today. This
may or may not maintain itself very well, and have kept pops
this afternoon on the lower side for now. Tonight, a low level
jet should cause additional convection to develop over North
Dakota before sliding east into Minnesota for overnight into
Tuesday. Similar waves of showers and storms are expected to
move across the forecast area through Wednesday. With the
surface boundary in the vicinity tonight through Tuesday night,
we will have a risk of severe storms, bringing the risk for
damaging winds and large hail. SPC has placed us in a Marginal
Risk for tonight and again Tuesday and Tuesday night. For
Wednesday, the boundary sags farther south and with easterly
flow off Lake Superior we are looking at much cooler
temperatures for most of the area, reducing our risk of severe
weather. However, convection will continue to develop and move
along that boundary, and with healthy PWAT values of 1.5" or
higher and repeated thunderstorms moving over the same areas,
there is a risk of heavy rainfall for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. We have a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from WPC.

Thursday and Friday...

We should have some cooler and drier conditions as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the area from the north. Temperatures
will be well below normal, with highs on Wednesday under the
above rainfall only in the 60s for a large portion of the area,
and only getting into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday even
as some sunshine returns to the forecast. We warm a little more
into Friday, but still mostly in the 70s.

Next weekend...

Precipitation chances return to the forecast for next weekend,
with the broad zonal flow continuing across the Plains into the
Great Lakes region, and shortwaves moving through that flow fire
off some rounds of showers and storms. At the surface, the high
pressure that should bring us the quieter days on Thursday and
Friday will retreat off to the east and allow some warmer air to
push back into the area from the southwest. Temperatures will
slowly return to near normal values for July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak cold front slowly dropping southeast across the area
overnight will be accompanied by isolated showers or a storm or
two. It has yet to pass KHYR, and have included a VCSH group for
the next few hours there. Behind the cold front, smoke will
filter into the region. Have included a few hours of MVFR
visibilities for the terminals during the early morning hours,
but then improving back to VFR by 15z. A few showers or storms
are possible beginning by early evening for far northern
Minnesota. I have added a PROB30 group to KINL for after 01z
with TSRA with MVFR cielings and visibilities.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

West to southwest winds today of 5 to 10 knots will back into
the east tonight, and back even farther to the northeast and
north on Tuesday. Waves through this period will remain a foot
or less. Tuesday night northeast winds will gradually increase,
sustaining around 15 knots and gusting into the 20 to 25 knot
range on Wednesday before decreasing again Wednesday night.
Waves will build Tuesday night through Wednesday, peaking in the
2 to 4 foot range before diminishing again Wednesday night.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed in the Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE