Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 160536 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1136 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

The brief bout of milder temperatures quickly shifts back to cooler
temperatures late today as a clipper moves across the Upper Midwest.
The cold front associated with this clipper is already across far
northern to northwest Minnesota early this afternoon, with the
supporting mid-level shortwave trough tracking east and deepening as
it tracks east towards the Upper Great Lakes region late today into
tonight. As stronger northerly winds develop tonight behind the
front, lake effect snow showers will develop across the south shore
of Lake Superior.

Total snowfall today into this evening will be fairly light, less
than an inch, except for across parts of the higher elevations of
the MN Arrowhead where 1-2 inches are possible. Along the south
shore a total of 1-3 inches are possible tonight into Friday.

Lows tonight in the 20s with north wind 10-20 Most areas of
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will be occasional light
snow, with a band of moderate snowfall rates producing a quick
coating to an inch of snow late this afternoon into the evening.
(Most intense snowfall rate timing... Iron Range and Brainerd Area 3-
6pm, Twin Ports 6pm-9pm, Hayward/Ashland 7-10pm.) Mostly cloudy
Friday with highs in the 20s. Northwest winds not as strong, 10 to
15 mph through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Overall quiet conditions are expected through the long range outside
of a few chances for light snow. Temperatures will start out well
below normal before moderating closer to normal as the period
progresses. There will also be a few chances for lake effect snows
along the south shore of Lake Superior, with the best chance being
Friday night into Saturday morning.

Low pressure to the south over the lower Missouri Valley will lead
to northerly winds across the Northland for Friday night. Cold air
will be arriving with these north winds on the order of -12 to -18C
at 850mb by Saturday morning. This will lead to a chance of lake
effect snow along the south shore of Lake Superior, primarily in the
snowbelt of Iron County from 06Z Saturday through 18Z Saturday. Lake
temperatures around 40-42F will lead to favorable delta-T values.
However, no large scale forcing will be present, so this activity
will be entirely by lake effect processes, which will keep the
snowfall from getting out of hand. Only a few inches are expected
along the Highway 77 corridor in eastern Iron County.  High pressure
will then move in for Saturday, turning the winds more northwesterly
and reducing the lake effect snow Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions
are then expected into Sunday as the high slides off to the south
and east. Low pressure over Hudson Bay will then swing a shortwave
into the International Border area on Sunday afternoon which may
bring a few light snow showers to northern Minnesota and perhaps far
northern Wisconsin. The weekend will be unseasonably cold as well
with highs only reaching into the teens and middle twenties.

Heading into the new week, upper-level ridging is expected to build
across the western half of the US putting the Northland into
north/northwesterly flow for the first half of the week. Models
bring a shortwave through the region Monday into Tuesday, but there
are differences in both the track and timing. The GFS is a bit
quicker and brings most of the snow chances right through the area
while the ECMWF is a touch slower and takes the system mainly to our
south. The ridge over the west will then start to move east by
midweek and push into the Central Plains. This will turn winds
southwesterly and help to moderate the cold air in place and bring
temperatures closer to normal for the remainder of the period. The
GFS also swings another trough through for Tuesday night into
Wednesday that may result in another quick shot of light snow, but
the ECMWF keeps this energy well to our north and east.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

A cold front continues to make its way through the Northland this
evening, which is currently bisecting our northwestern Wisconsin
counties. This has resulted in mainly light snow along the front,
along with MVFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities. These lower
ceilings will continue through the morning hours Friday, mainly in
the MVFR/IFR range. Also, due to cold air advection and steepening
low-level lapse rates, winds will be gusty overnight between 15 to
30 mph at times. There will be a brief respite from precipitation
through early Friday afternoon before another system moves through
central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, which could bring
light snow showers to KBRD and KHYR in the late afternoon and
evening hours.


DLH  25  27  12  19 /  80  10  10   0
INL  20  22   7  16 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  24  27  12  19 /  70  30  30   0
HYR  27  29  16  21 /  70  30  30   0
ASX  29  31  18  23 /  70  30  30  20


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ147-148.



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