Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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279
FXUS63 KEAX 200404
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1104 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

Large precipitation shield has overspread much of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as of early this afternoon. Expect this activity to
gradually work its way eastward over the remainder of the forecast
area during the afternoon and evening hours. The highest rainfall
will be situated over far northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri,
where more persistent rains are expected to occur with respect to
the track of the surface low pressure. Localized river flooding may
become an issue as 2-3 inches of rain is possible by sunrise Monday.
The overall flash flooding threat should be minimized by the long
duration of rain occurring and the drought conditions in place.
Otherwise, attention is also focused over east central Kansas into
central Missouri for the potential of strong storms. While deep
layer shear profiles would favor storm organization, the
widespread rainfall and associated cloud cover has helped
stabilize the warm sector in advance of the surface
low/convergence boundary. A mid-level dry punch has evolved ahead
of the low, providing a narrow corridor of instability, and a few
strong storms may develop in this zone from northeast Oklahoma
into southeast Kansas. The northward extent of robust convective
development is much more in question. It appears stronger
convective elements may form on the back edge of the existing
precipitation shield late this afternoon or early evening over
eastern kansas and push into Missouri during the remainder of the
evening hours. While the available instability will not favor
severe weather, heavy rain and lightning will be possible in this
activity. The dry punch will eventually work its way into much of
the forecast area, with precipitation becoming light or
temporarily ending during the overnight hours - exception being
far northern MO where the surface low track/frontogenesis will aid
in a longer duration of precipitation. Look for low clouds to
work their way into the area, along with an increase in surface
winds. Another round of light rainfall is expected on Monday as
precipitation rotates around the back side of the surface low, and
redevelops along and ahead of the low that tracks generally along
the Interstate 70 corridor during the day. With the position of
the low and abundant cloud cover, highs on Monday are expected to
be well below normal in the 70s. Thereafter, improving weather
conditions are expected with highs remaining in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and mostly sunny skies Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

IFR ceilings are developing over the area and this trend is
expected to persist through the night and into tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow morning ceilings will lift some to around 1500 ft. These
MVFR ceilings will likely persist through the rest of the forecast
as the upper system slowly works across the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...CDB



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