Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200451 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

An area of scattered showers, primarily centered along a west-east
oriented frontal boundary, will continue to move southeast
through eastern ND and the northwest quarter of MN late this
evening. Gusts with these showers and associated boundary will
ramp up quickly and be brief but are likely to be in the 40-50
mph range. As temperatures drop quickly into the mid to lower 30s
behind the front, lingering post frontal showers are expected to
transition to a rain/snow mix.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Latest radar imagery shows an area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving south across the International
border into adjacent portions of MN and ND. This activity is
associated with a west-east oriented front, currently just north
of the international border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will push south through eastern ND and the
northwest quarter of MN this evening. Expect winds to increase
rapidly along the front, with gusts up to 40-50 mph remaining
possible, and north winds increasing again behind the front.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough was over the area
with some drying noted. Also another upper level trough was located
over northern MAN and northern SASK.  Cold front has moved through
the area this morning. MAN trough will move across northern MN
tonight. Another cold front over central SASK and central MAN will
sweep across the forecast area this evening and overnight. The cold
front is expected to bring another round of gusty northwest winds
for tonight. Winds will settle down Sat as surface high pressure
will be over the MN side by Sat afternoon.

Warm advection showers are expected to develop this evening over the
northern valley ahead of the MAN trough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

GFS/ECMWF/GEM remain in reasonable agreement thru the period.
Northwest flow aloft will exist early next week then transition to
more zonal with a 500 mb wave moving into the northern/central
Plains toward the end of next week.  Temperatures will warm Sunday
then cool off again behind a front for Tuesday before warming again
by late week as flow aloft is more zonal.  Moisture in the area is
scarce and thus dry weather is expected Sunday to Wednesday.  With
the 500 mb wave moving into the Plains late next week there could be
a few showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Remaining scattered rain and snow showers will continue to bring
3-5kft cigs overnight. Otherwise expect gusty NNW winds to
continue overnight, with gusts to 30 kts possible. VFR conditions
will prevail through the period, with cigs lifting and scattering
and winds slowly decreasing Saturday morning.




LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...BP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.