Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

A few stronger cells just moving out of Eddy County, but overall a
weakening trend during the last hour or so as we`ve lost daytime
heating. A band of rain continues over our southeastern counties,
and there has been reports of over 2 inches with a 3.5 inch report
in Ashby. Included a flood advisory for that area as it looks like
rain will be hanging on a bit longer. High res models have at
least some widely scattered showers hanging on for much of the
night with another weak vort moving down. Thus, kept some low POPs
going through morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
across the southern half of the CWA. New development is beginning
to take shape along and ahead of a cold front that is expected to
move across the region tonight. Thunderstorm chances will increase
across the area as this occurs, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. The main threat will be hail up to one inch in
diameter along with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. Due to
relatively high surface vorticity, funnel clouds and brief
landspout tornadoes could also occur. The severe threat will be
short lived, however, as indices remain unfavorable for organized
severe thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be rainfall and
cloud cover dependent, ranging from the upper 60s to near 80

For tonight, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will decrease in
coverage along the front. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower
60s. Rain chances diminish as we head into Friday morning with highs
on Friday expected to reach the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Friday night - Saturday night: As upper-level ridging builds to the
west, showers will begin to decrease in coverage as they progress
eastwards and conditions turn dry late Friday. Mostly sunny skies
then return for the area Saturday under high pressure.

Sunday - Monday morning: By Sunday night a positively tilted mid-
level trough will begin to pivot over the Dakotas initializing
thunderstorm potential. Southerly flow ahead of an oncoming cold
front will support increasing temperatures and moisture transport
Sunday allowing for CAPE values near 2000 J/Kg and higher in
addition to deep layer shear 30-50 kts. Given those parameters,
severe storms are still a possibility for late Sunday into early

Monday - Thursday: Conditions dry back out early Monday leaving
quiet conditions under high pressure. By Tuesday afternoon a
secondary shortwave will progress eastwards back into the area. This
will bring rain and storm chances once again primarily for
northwestern Minnesota. Still low confidence for this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Rain is ongoing at KFAR, KBJI, and KTVF as showers rotate around
an upper low pressure system. More intense thunderstorms have been
going on around KDVL, so have a mention there. Those will diminish
in a few hours as the sun starts to go down. Have the southern and
eastern TAF sites transitioning to VCSH this evening and then
eventually drying out as the system slowly pulls away from the
region. There is good model agreement on some MVFR ceilings moving
in later tonight and early tomorrow morning. Have mostly 1500-2500
ft, although some lower spots are not out of the question. Think
there will be enough northerly wind at 5 to 10 kts to prevent fog
from forming.




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