598
FXUS63 KGID 101132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few sprinkles possible this afternoon, but no accumulation
  expected.

- A return to more active weather returns Saturday evening as an
  upper level low approaches the area from the west. This could
  result in increased cloud cover as well as unsettled weather
  (40-80% chance) late Saturday night through Monday morning.
  Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms (40-60%
  chance) return with a cold front/upper level disturbance
  Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again, severe weather is not
  anticipated.

- For the most part temperatures will remain seasonable through
  the period with high temperatures climbing into the 70s along
  with low temperatures mostly in the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A few high clouds can be seen on satellite this morning
streaming across the local area from the west as the next area
of low pressure spins across central Nevada.

For today, expect another pleasant day across the region with
slightly lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes across
the local area. As the same time, expect a few cumulus to
develop across the area again this afternoon - with some
sprinkles (as seen in NAMnest and to a lesser extend in the
HRRR) likely in spots later in the day as daytime heating helps
in the development of some mainly fair weather CU. Looking at
soundings, this CU should be pretty shallow given the inversion
aloft, and think no more than a few sprinkles (with no
accumulation) appears likely at this time.

As the pressure gradient weakens further and winds turn westerly
on Saturday, expect a slightly warmer and less breezy day across
the area, with high temperatures likely approaching the upper
70s to near 80 in spots. The focus will then shift to the
aforementioned upper level low to our west that is expect to
cross just south of the local area on Sunday. This should mark
the return of a better chance for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity spreading across the region as early as
late Saturday night, with off and on small chances for
thunderstorms then continuing into Monday morning. While
precipitation will not be continuous and thunderstorms should
not be severe late this weekend, precipitation should be a bit
more widepsread with most locations seeing some accumulation
over this period (maybe a quarter of an inch or so), with the
higher amounts expected across north central Kansas - which will
be closer to the upper level low/forcing.

While Tuesday daytime will likely be dry, a cold front coupled
with an upper level wave could bring additional chances for
precip beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through
Wednesday. Again, severe weather chances appear limited given
the atmospheric profile, but most areas should see some light
accumulating precip over this period.

Overall, temperatures should remain fairly pleasant through the
period, with afternoon high temperatures mostly fluctuating in
the 70s and lows in the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with
a few high clouds visible in Satellite imagery that are
anticipated to pass by the terminals through the period. In
addition...could see a bit of fair weather CU develop during the
afternoon near 6KFT, with steady northwest winds gusting to near
20 KTS possible for a few hours during the afternoon
hours...before subsiding again near sunset and gradually
becoming westerly by early Saturday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi