Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251956
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
156 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

...No Serious Cold is Foreseen thru Next Sun with Wind/Fire Wx
Concerns Tomorrow and Possibly Late Week as Well...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Hazardous Weather: Critical/near-critical fire wx tomorrow.

Aloft: A moisture-starved shortwave trof was crossing this rgn
this afternoon. A low-amplitude ridge will arrive in its wake by
dawn tomorrow. This ridge will depart to the E tomorrow AM with
anticyclonic WSW flow.

Surface: High pres will be S of the rgn tonight...extending from
the Srn Plns into the OH Vly. This high will build and become
centered over the OH Vly tomorrow with a strengthening warm sector
here. A very weak cool front will cross the NW USA and emerge
into the Nrn Plns by 00Z/Tue.

Rest of this afternoon: sunny and mild. Temps just a little above
normal.

Tonight: Clear and quiet. Low temps near normal...a couple degs
either side of 20F most locations.

Mon: Sunny windy and warm. Highs mid 50s-mid 60s except possibly
over the extreme N where 1-3" of snow remains on the ground.

Fire wx a major concern. Please see fire wx section below. S
winds will increase to 17-24 kt with widespread G30-35 kt from
I-80 south.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Potentially Hazardous Weather: There is a slight chance for a bit
of frzg drzl E of Hwy 183 Wed AM. Fire wx concerns may develop
Fri-Sat.

Aloft: The longwave Wrn trof will already be in the process of
reloading tomorrow with a low breaking off at its base over CA.
WSW flow will prevail here Tue-Wed. The last 2 EC/GFS/GEM runs
cont to suggest the CA low will open up over the Desert SW. The
Wrn trof will cross the rgn Wed. A moderate-amplitude ridge will
then move overhead Thu and then drift E into the MS Vly Fri-Sun.
Meanwhile... the next low will be diving into the Wrn longwave
trof. SW flow will prevail over the rgn Fri-Sun and it looks like
there will be a potent shortwave trof or low off to our NW next
wknd.

Surface: The weak Nrn Plns cool front mentioned above will slide
thru Mon night with high pres building in Tue-Wed. This front will
stall just SE of the CWA with a low forming and moving up the
front Wed. High pres will overtake the rgn Thu and then drift E. A
cool front will make its way thru the Wrn USA Fri-Sat and a warm
front will probably form over the Plns and lift into or thru the
CWA. The cool front is currently slated to move thru Sun...but
given some model spread and the developing blocky pattern...that
may change.

Temps: For those that want a break from the cold wx...you`ve got
it. There is no cold in sight thru next Sun.

Precip: Unless the models end up deeper and further W with Wed`s
low...no meaningful precip will occur. However...the low to the SE
Wed may toss enough moisture back into the CWA to produce some
lgt snow or frzg drzl in the AM hrs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Significant Wx: Strong cross winds develop Mon on EAR RWY 13-31.

This Afternoon: VFR with no clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. W winds
11-15 kt with a few gusts near 20 kt. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR with no clds AOB 10K ft. Lgt SW winds under 10 kt.
Confidence: High

Mon thru 18Z: VFR with no clds AOB 10K ft. There could be 2-3 hrs
of LLWS 12Z-15Z...but confidence is not high enough to include it
in the TAFs yet. Lgt SW winds become SSW and increase to 17-27 kt
after 16Z. Confidence: High

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Upgraded the fire wx watch to a RFW...and included Franklin and
Webster counties in S-cntrl Neb. The counties included are where
confidence is currently highest. It is entirely possible we are
not far enough N. If temps get warmer than we are fcstg along the
Hwy 6 and I-80 corridors...then RH levels will be lower than
currently fcst and more counties will need to be added with less
lead-time. Be aware of this possibility.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Monday for NEZ082>085.

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley



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