Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 112045
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
245 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Cloudy skies prevailed across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the 20s.

For tonight, low clouds will continue to linger across the region
as the next system approaches from the southwest. Weak 850mb warm
advection and increasing lift associated with the system could
cause light freezing rain or freezing drizzle to break out across
central Wisconsin towards 12z on Wednesday. Followed the superblend
for lows tonight, although there will be a slow rise in
temperatures across east-central Wisconsin due to increasing
easterly winds off Lake Michigan.

Once the mid level moisture arrives Wednesday morning, the
precipitation should change over to snow. The precipitation
should expand rapidly into portions of north-central and northeast
Wisconsin by mid to late morning. Little precipitation is expected
across the far north. Accumulations of around an inch or less are
expected south of highway 29. During the afternoon, the mid level
moisture is expected to decrease, resulting in the snow changing
back over to drizzle or freezing drizzle at most places. Followed
previous forecast for max temperatures on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Fall like upper air pattern is forecast through the period with
the arctic and polar jet streams to our north and the subtropical
jet well to our south. Most of the significant precipitation will
be associated with jet energy moving through the southern stream.
That leaves us in a mostly mild and dry pattern with a few exceptions.


The first is Thursday night and Friday when an upper trough moves
across the northern Great Lakes while a closed low moves across
the Southern Plains. This combination should produce an inverted
trough at the surface with some precipitation across mostly
eastern Wisconsin. There isn`t much cold air around so a mix of
snow, sleet and rain is expected.

The second is the possibility of snow showers Sunday night and Monday
as a cold front goes by, but otherwise there do not seem to be many
chances from snow through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

IFR CIGS will continue across the north, with IFR CIGS rising
into the MVFR category later this afternoon into this evening
across the south. CIGS will lower later tonight into Wednesday
morning across the entire area. Band of freezing rain/drizzle
and snow will arrive towards 12z south of KY50/KISW/KMFI. The
precipitation will overspread much of central and east-central
Wisconsin between 12z and 16z. The precipitation should change
over to all snow for awhile, then switching back to flurries,
drizzle or freezing drizzle during the afternoon hours.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Wednesday for
WIZ035>038-045-048-049.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Eckberg



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