Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 211457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
957 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 957 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Lastest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Great
Lakes, south-southwestward through west Tennessee and into extreme
northwest Alabama. A prefrontal trough just ahead of the front was
sparking isolated light showers across areas east of I-65. This
should continue through the morning and into the early afternoon
hours, as daytime heating aids in the weak lift. Not anticipating
much coverage, with only scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected. The activity will diminish during the late afternoon, as
the main cold front crosses the area. Areas west of I-65 will likely
remain dry, as drier air rushes in along and behind the main front.
Temperatures will remain just below seasonal norms today, as cloud
cover persists and winds shift to the north. Expect highs to top out
into the lower to mid 80s. Previous forecast was on track, so no
major changes were needed.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

All rain chances should end by sunset leaving a dry forecast through
the rest of the short term period. An inversion develops overnight
and with some lingering low level moisture we should see a low
stratus deck build over the area. These clouds combined with slight
breezes overnight should keep lows from dropping much below the upper
60s. CAA increases on Wednesday as a surface high shifts into the
Midwest, and with a strong inversion still in place think we`ll see
the low stratus deck linger for much of the morning hours. Temps on
Wednesday will probably end up a degree or two cooler than today.
Dewpoints drop off noticeably as winds become more northerly
Wednesday with values dropping to around 60 degrees Wednesday night.
These values coupled with clear skies should send lows into the lower
60s, which you have to go back to early June to find the last time
we`ve seen those numbers for lows. Another dry and mild day is
forecast for Thursday as the surface high shifts east into the OH
Valley. Thursday night will likely end up as the coldest night of
the week with lows around 60 degrees for much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

The surface high begins to move off the Atlantic coast on Friday and
with a system moving across the northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes the winds at the surface begin to become more southerly as the
day goes on. This will bring back the Gulf moisture and bring temps
back closer to normal. Even though the system is passing well to the
north of the area, we may see just enough lift as the moisture
streams back into the area for isolated storms both Friday and
Saturday afternoons. By Sunday a ridge begins to build over the
region and will result in a gradual warming trend in temps over the
weekend and into next week. Think that models are on the lower side
for highs and wouldn`t be surprised if we had a few highs in the mid
90s early next week. Even with the ridge centered over the area,
think the combination of temps in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the
70s should be enough for isolated to scattered storms each afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Widespread low level stratus deck AOA 1,000ft should continue through
14z and then begin to scatter out. A cold front will move across the
area today shifting winds to the W/NW. Gusty westerly winds are
expected behind the front with gusts up to 20kts possible at times.
Isolated showers/storms are possible this morning but should stay
east of both terminals. Winds taper off after sunset. Models suggest
the possibility for another low stratus deck to develop early
Wednesday morning but it`s too uncertain to include in the TAFs at
this time.




LONG TERM...Stumpf

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