Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 191130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
530 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

Mid/high clouds continue to stream into the area from the WSW in
advance of a weak cold front located from NW MS swd into cntrl LA. A
little bit of patchy fog is in place across a few parts of the cntrl
TN Valley this early Mon morning, although the increase in cloud
cover is helping to offset more in the way of fog development. Given
the cloud cover in place, current temp trends are a few degrees
warmer compared to the last few early morning, with values mainly in
the lower/mid 40s for most spots. These temps are prob near their min
value for this morning, with temps xpcted to rebound more into the
upper 50s/lower 60s later today ahead of the oncoming cold front.
Latest model suites have this front moving ewd into the area later
this afternoon, with iso/sct showers developing along/ahead of the
front starting late this morning. Some of this rainfall/showers will
continue to spread ewd into the area heading into the afternoon hrs
with the approaching front.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The front will continue to move east and exit NE AL this evening.
Iso/sct showers will also continue into the evening hrs, mainly
for areas along/east of I-65, before tapering off from the west by
the start of the overnight period. Slightly cooler air will then
begin to spread into the area from the NW late tonight, with lows
falling mainly into the upper 30s. A strong dome of high pressure out
of the mid/srn Plains will then build ewd into the region starting
Tue, with cooler air continuing to filter into the area. Afternoon
highs both Tue/Wed look to remain around 50F/in the lower 50s while
lows Tue night fall more to near 30F for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

Surface high pressure situated over the region will provide dry
conditions across the region on Thanksgiving Day. After a chilly
start with lows in the lower 30s, high temperatures later on under
mostly sunny skies should rise into the upper 50s, a little below
normal highs of around 61.

A storm system currently affecting the Gulf of Alaska will progress
eastward in a generally progressive upper level flow, generating a
surface low over the NW Gulf coast late Friday. Strong ascent north
and east of this developing system will result in clouds
overspreading the Tennessee Valley overnight Thursday. Unsettled
weather is expected to begin on Friday, as sufficient moisture
upglide in the 290-300K region brings isolated to scattered showers
to the region. Went a tad faster than the models in starting shower
activity Saturday morning. Better rain chances are expected Friday
night as the deepest moisture and a frontal boundary approaches the
region. Some of the models were hinting at a possibility of an
isolated t-storm or two mixed in with more predominate showers. Kept
the forecast thunder free this go around, given that although very
high shear values will be realized Friday and especially Fri night,
sufficient lower level instability should not move this far inland
from the Gulf.

The deterministic models by the end of the week really diverge in
their solutions, mainly induced by timing differences of another
system forming over the central North Pacific near the Date Line late
this week. Feedback downstream over the North American domain will
result in various solutions and a low confidence on when showers will
affect this region. For the weekend, stayed closer to a GFS-ensemble
solution; which maintains some chance of showers each day. With more
clouds than sun and rain chances, high temperatures for period
should trend below normal levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

With mainly just some mid/high clouds streaming into the area from
the WSW, VFR conds prevail for now at both main airports. A cold
front moving into the area from the west later today will reduce cigs
into the 2000-2500 ft range mainly between 19-21Z. Sct shra are also
possible along/ahead of the cold front, and a VCSH group has been
maintained from this afternoon into this evening. Cigs then look to
lift more into the 5-7K ft range late tonight, with shra tapering
off to the east as the cold front exits NE AL.





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