Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 160745
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
245 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Long Term Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

A large scale pattern shift will bring above normal temperatures to
central Indiana starting Saturday. In addition, southwest systems
will bring mainly rain chances to the area with the best chances
Sunday and late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Satellite and rh time sections suggest there will be decent cloud
cover tonight, especially near and north of Interstate 74.
Otherwise, surface high pressure over the southern states will allow
for a southwest low level flow. The clouds and southwesterly winds
should keep temperatures from falling too much overnight. Blend lows
in the upper 20s look ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures and then
timing and coverage of mainly rain on Sunday.

Model rh time sections are showing a dry column Saturday and
Saturday night as the surface high holds across the South.
Increasing sunshine and southwest winds should allow temperatures to
jump to above normal with blend highs in the mid 40s northeast to
lower 50s southwest look good.

After that, models in good agreement that a southwest system will
impinge upon central Indiana Sunday. This system will have plenty of
moisture to work with on Sunday and should allow for scattered to
widespread precipitation. Model soundings and BUFKIT suggest the
rain could start off briefly mixed with snow or sleet. However, good
confidence rain will be the main precip type.

Finally, energy may eject from a southwestern trough and bring small
chances to all or parts of the area overnight Sunday night and
Monday. However, good confidence most areas will see dry weather
with continued warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

The upper pattern transitions from a zonal upper flow with an
upper disturbance moving east across the southern U.S. around the
middle of next week to a more amplified upper pattern Friday into
next weekend as an upper trough digs into the upper midwest and
eventually the great lakes.

Both the GFS and GEMNH models keep all precipitation well south
of Indiana...while the 00Z brings it as far north as southern
Indiana late Wednesday and Wednesday evening.  The 00Z superblend
POPS had precipitation farther north based on the old Euro.  Will
mention slight chance POPS far south late Wednesday and go dry
elsewhere.

Models develop an area of low pressure over the southern plains
move it into the southern Great lakes Friday.  Will lean toward the
slower Euro and Canadian models.  Looks like rain will develop
Thursday night and become mixed with snow north and northwest
sections by Friday.  Could see falling temperatures Friday as colder
air arrives.

Raised superblend temperatures a little Thursday and Thursday night
as we will be mostly in the warm sector.  Otherwise...superblend
temperatures seem reasonable most other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1140 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period
with southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TDUD


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