Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 161718
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
118 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A frontal system will bring rain showers to the area Friday and
Friday night. Otherwise, it will be dry with continued below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

The main concern for the near term will continue to be the freeze
and frost potential. 3 am temperatures have dropped to the middle
30s and winds were very light to calm. However, extensive high cloud
shield was streaming in from the southern Plains. This shield was
impacting all but our far northwestern counties. That said, models
and IR satellite loop hint there may be a break in the cirrus in the
next couple of hours. This would support the current headlines of a
Frost Advisory for our far southern tier and Freeze Warning over the
rest of the forecast area 5 am to 9 am.

For the rest of the day, should see plenty of sunshine per model rh
time sections and layered rh progs. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
should allow temperatures to recover to blend highs in the middle
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Models agree that a dry cold front will drop through from the
northwest tonight. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build in
from the west. Building high pressure along with a dry column, per
model rh time sections, will result in dry weather with continued
below normal temperatures.

With southwest winds expected to stay up a bit tonight, good
confidence there will not be a freeze or widespread frost. However,
there is another good chance for widespread frost and perhaps a
freeze overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the center
of high pressure approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Models in good agreement that a cold front and upper wave will move
across central Indiana Friday night. These features will interact
with sufficient moisture and will allow for rain showers to return
Friday. Would also not rule out a shower or two Saturday and
Saturday night with a Great Lakes trough. However, with the blend
dry, will hold off. Otherwise, surface high pressure will move in
from the west and allow for dry weather Sunday and Monday.

Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover lend good
confidence that below normal temperatures will continue per the
blend. More frost is likely late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds will start out southwesterly, gradually veering to the
northwest as a dry cold front moves through the area tonight.
Sustained speeds will generally be 6 to 11 kts with some gusts up
to 18 kts into tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD


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