Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 171935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
230 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017


.NEAR TERM (Rest of today through Monday)...
Warm conditions with a light southerly flow over the area and partly
sunny skies. Sct cumulus have formed underneath a fairly thin veil
of cirrus. Temps were in the 70s most area with a few upper 60s over
the nrn most zones. A band of showers were located from nrn GA
southwest to southeast LA but is expected to weaken as it approaches
our northwest zones.

Weak warm front will lift up to southeast GA tonight and combined
with weak disturbances aloft will generate isolated to scattered
showers across parts of southeast GA. Light rainfall amounts less
than A tenth of an inch expected at this time. Model sounding don`t
show high potential for fog and guidance not all that impressive so
will go with patchy fog except over the srn zones where areas of fog
was advertised due to dew-points in the 60s there. Can`t rule out
locally dense fog over wrn and srn zones. MOS guidance did show a
low potential for an isolated elevated thunderstorm tonight over
southeast GA but MUCAPE much too weak and forcing not impressive so
left in showers.

Monday...weak warm front will be across parts of southeast AL into
southeast GA in the morning with scattered rain/showers mostly over
southeast GA and a slight chance showers near and north of I-10. Mid
level ridging will build a bit northward during the day and shove
deep moisture/front northward in the aftn. Thus should see a slow
northward drift of rain chances through the aftn. Enough instability
(MUCAPE about 1000 J/kg) and lift for perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm. Greater sunshine over northeast FL and south-southwest
flow will enable highs to push to mid 70s to around 80 but mid-upper
70s over southeast GA where more persistent cloudiness is

.Short Term.../Monday night through Wednesday night/...

A few showers could linger across SE GA Monday evening as wave
passes through, otherwise building high pressure will be expected
Monday night into Tuesday. The high will slide to the Southeast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. An area of low pressure will track
Eastward to the North of the region Wednesday, with this systems
associated cold front crossing Wednesday night. Precipitation
associated with this system is expected to remain mainly to the
North Wednesday. Moisture is somewhat limited when the front
crosses, but can not rule out lower end chance with a few storms

A mild Southwesterly flow will be expected throughout this period
with temperatures remaining above normal.


.Long Term.../Thursday through Sunday/...

The flow will become more Northeasterly Thursday into Thursday night
as high pressure builds to the North. The high will build to the
Northeast then East Friday into Friday night. The models have been
somewhat inconsistent in the long range for the weekend with respect
to the arrival time of a cold front. At this point, models depict
the ridge holding to the East, keeping the front to the West through
Sunday. This timing will be monitored during the upcoming week, as
it will make a significant difference in the weekend forecast. If
the front stays West, a warm and mainly dry period will be
anticipated, with a significantly cooler and possibly wetter weather
if the ridge moves off allowing the front to pass through. Will keep
with the warmer scenario at this time.


.AVIATION...VFR likely to prevail through late evening. After
midnight...low level moisture will increase from west to east with
increasing chance of sct-bkn low clouds. In addition...there is a
chance of fog with vsby at or less than 3 miles around GNV...VQQ and
possibly SGJ as well from 08z-14z. By late morning and into early
Monday afternoon...cigs around 3500-6000 ft expected with a chance
of MVFR generally highest from GNV-JAX-SSI. Left out any mention of
showers on Monday for now given low probabilities.


.MARINE...Generally weak low level flow from the south and southwest
expected through Monday night...then more offshore by Tuesday as sfc
high pressure becomes centered over central FL area. As a storm
system gathers strength across the lower and Mid MS valley Tuesday
night and Wed...winds become southwest again and increase. A cold
front is forecast to push through Wed night...with a north-northeast
flow Thursday though not particularly strong


AMG  57  74  59  77 /  30  50  20  10
SSI  57  71  60  74 /  20  20  10   0
JAX  57  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10
SGJ  59  77  58  77 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  57  80  56  80 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  56  80  57  82 /   0   0  10   0




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