Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 151847
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
247 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.Near Term.../through Tonight/...

Combination of a dissipating frontal boundary stretched Northwest to
Southeast across the region, diurnal instability, and sea breeze
boundaries has led to scattered to numerous storms this afternoon.
This activity will continue into the evening hours, with the sea
breezes converging over inland portions of the region. Convection is
expected to dissipate for the overnight hours, with skies clearing.
Patchy fog will be a possibility towards dawn in areas which receive
significant rainfall Today.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday through Wednesday/...

At the surface the area will be between high pressure to the
Southeast and a trough to the Northwest this period. This will
result in a prevailing moist Southwest flow, which should allow
afternoon convection to reach the beaches.

The region will be in the base of an upper trough Tuesday into
Wednesday, with short wave energy pivoting through. This energy
coupled with diurnal instability in a moist environment, along with
sea breeze interactions, will result in higher than normal
precipitation chances.

Near normal temperatures are expected this period.

&&

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...

A frontal boundary will sink into SE GA Wednesday night into
Thursday, and stall into Friday, with surface high pressure to the
East. The presence of this boundary coupled with diurnal instability
and sea breeze interactions will result in a period with greater
than normal precipitation chances.  The region will be between high
pressure to the Southeast and a frontal boundary to the Northwest
over the weekend, with daily rounds of mainly diurnal convection
expected.

Near normal temperatures will be expected this period.

&&

.Marine...

The region will be between high pressure to the East/Southeast and a
series of frontal boundaries to the Northwest this period. This
pattern will result in a greater than normal chance for
thunderstorms over area waters this week.

Rip Currents: Moderate to high risk Today, moderate on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms through the aftn and early
evening, with JAX metro terminals and GNV more likely affected
through the late afternoon and evening. SSI and SGJ for most part
have lower chances of storms at the terminal but kept VC storm
there. Restrictions to vis/cig to IFR are likely in some storms
with gusty winds up to 30-45 kt. Gust recorded at GNV at 37 kt
shortly after 2 pm. Otherwise, multilayered clouds tonight and
weakening convection expected. Low fog potential looks low again
at this time. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and
storms on Monday, most likely to affect GNV first then rest of the
TAF sites later in the aftn. Light and variable winds, or
easterly along the coastal areas rest of today. Winds become more
prevailing west and southwest winds 5-10 kt on Monday.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  92  74  90 /  40  40  40  50
SSI  78  89  77  89 /  10  50  40  50
JAX  76  93  75  92 /  20  50  20  50
SGJ  77  92  75  90 /  10  40  20  40
GNV  75  92  74  91 /  30  40  10  50
OCF  75  92  74  90 /  30  40  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$



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