Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 161934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
334 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.Near Term.../through Wednesday/...

High pressure will be East of the region this period. A slow moving
cold front will move into interior SE GA counties Tonight, then
to near the GA/FL line Wednesday. This front will be a focus for
isolated storms in SE GA through this evening, and isolated
showers there Tonight. Low level moisture is expected to result in
patchy to areas of fog Overnight, mainly inland. The best chances
for storms will be across the Suwannee valley and SE GA Wednesday
along and near the frontal position, as convergence along the
boundary aids in convective initiation.

Temperatures will remain above normal this period.


.Short Term.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...

The cold front will sink to the South of the forecast area and stall
on Thursday, while strong high pressure builds to the North. Showers
and a few storms will be possible along the boundary as it moves
through. The building high will result in gusty conditions, near
the coast North of the front. The high will weaken and move to the
Northeast Friday into Friday night, as the front lifts back
across the region as a warm front. This boundary will again be the
focus for showers and a few storms as it lifts.

A strong cold front is expected to move Southeast toward SE GA
Saturday afternoon. Convection is expected to develop ahead of this
front, with the potential for storms Saturday afternoon and
evening. The front is then expected to push through the forecast
area and well to the South on Saturday night, as strong high
pressure builds to the Northwest then North on Sunday. This front
will bring a significant airmass change, with lower temperatures
and humidities, beginning on Sunday.


.Long Term.../Sunday night through Tuesday/...

Strong high pressure will remain to the North this period, with the
potential for coastal showers in the onshore flow pattern.
Temperatures are expected to trend a little below normal this
period, with the lower dewpoints remaining. A little better chance
for showers for Tuesday, as long range models depict a wave
developing in the Northern Gulf.



High pressure will move East of area waters through Tonight.
A cold front will slide into Northern waters Wednesday afternoon,
and move just to the South of area waters Wednesday night.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this
front. Strong high pressure will build to the North Thursday, then
weaken and move to the Northeast Friday. With the strong high to
the North a surge of higher winds is expected Thursday, with
advisory level conditions possible into Friday. Another cold front
is expected to move Southeast across area waters Saturday night,
with a high building behind it, which will result in another surge
of higher winds into Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Wednesday. High risk possible Thursday.


.Fire Weather...

A few storms will be possible for inland SE GA this afternoon and
evening. A cold front will move Southeast across the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with strong high pressure building
behind it. Thunderstorms will be possible along this front. Drier
air will advect South into region behind this front, with this
airmass change most noticeable over inland SE GA, where RH values
could fall into the 30 to 35 percent range Thursday afternoon.
Gusty conditions near the coast can also be expected Thursday
into Thursday night. Another cold front will move South across the
region Saturday into Saturday night. There is a chance for storms
along this front. A significant airmass change is expected behind
this front, with RH levels falling into the 30s over interior
portions of the region Sunday into Monday.



VFR expected to prevail with sct-lcl broken cumulus through
the late afternoon and evening hours. Any diurnal convection
expected to be west and northwest of the TAF sites through
tonight. Some fog restrictions are possible late tonight around
KVQQ and KGNV and for now just put in MVFR conditions.
Southeast winds near 10 kt at the coastal TAF sites with more
variable or south winds inland at KGNV. Southwest winds initially
expected on Wed morning. A few showers could impact KSSI by late
Wed morning as a cold front approaches the region.


AMG  73  89  68  82 /  30  20   0  10
SSI  77  88  72  79 /  10  30  30  10
JAX  74  91  71  80 /  10  30  30  30
SGJ  75  89  72  82 /  10  10  30  50
GNV  73  91  71  85 /  10  20  20  40
OCF  72  91  71  88 /  10  10  10  30



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