Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 200812

National Weather Service Jackson KY
412 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

The surface analysis shows a prefrontal trough continues to push
south and east this morning with another cold front to the
northwest across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. We
continue to see rain push across the southern half of the CWA this
morning and this activity will continue to trend south. This has
been aided by the surface trough and some upper level divergence
from a jet streak across the Ohio Valley. Given the latest
mesoanalysis shows loss of some of the divergence would suspect
this activity is on track to relent through the morning. The
thermal gradient will tighten ahead of the next front passage and
we will see strengthening low level jet in response to strong
upper level jet aloft. This will lead to gusty winds this
afternoon and evening, with gust of 20 to 30 mph possible. The
next front and a embedded short wave will also lead to additional
gusty rain showers late this afternoon and evening as well.

Then final second front will usher in a cold airmass tonight into
Sunday. This will drop temperatures into the lower 30s in most
spots tonight. The potential for frost looks low given the
potential for mixing and even some lingering cloud cover under
northwest flow. We finally see clearing skies on Sunday, as a
Canadian high pressure settles into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. However, this will lead to what would be normal high
temperatures for early December, with highs in many locations
struggling to climb out of the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

A sprawling area of high pressure will be the primary weather maker
in the extended for eastern Kentucky and surrounding areas for most
of the upcoming work week. We can expect mostly clear skies, light
winds, and dry conditions through afternoon. Widespread frost will
be possible late Sunday through early Monday morning. Low
temperatures on Monday morning could fall into the upper 20s in some
of our deeper and more sheltered valleys. Overall Mondays lows
should bottom out in the lower 30s across the area. We may see some
frost around eastern Kentucky late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning as well in some our northern and western valleys.
An area of low pressure is forecast to move across the region
Thursday night and Friday. This system will bring a chance of rain
to eastern Kentucky to end the week and going into next weekend.
Daily highs should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday and
Monday, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, and
between 55 and 60 on Friday. Nightly lows should range from the mid
30s to lower 40s Sunday night through Wednesday night. Temperatures
should be a bit warmer Thursday night and Friday night, as winds
shift to the southeast or south, and cloud cover begins to move into
the area ahead of an approaching weather system. This system will
bring a chance of rain to eastern Kentucky from Thursday evening
through Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

The latest scans of the WSR-88D radar show light to moderate rain
continues to move across the good portion of eastern Kentucky
tonight along a prefrontal trough. This is leading to reductions
on VIS and we are also seeing CIGs reduce overtime through the
night. Most TAFs sites will eventually see periods of IFR or lower
through a good portion of the TAF period. We are expecting to see
improvements to the CIGs to VFR as we move into the early
afternoon hours today. The prefrontal trough along with rain has
been helping to mix down some higher gust of 15 to 20 knots to
start the TAF period. However, the more widespread higher gusts
will be this afternoon and evening, as we see additional passages
of cold fronts. These aforementioned boundaries will lead to
gusts of 20 to 25 knots, with winds shifting from the west to the
northwest through the evening.




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