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000
FXUS63 KJKL 200015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
815 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light showers and drizzle will end tonight, with dry
  weather then lasting through early in the new workweek.

- Frost will be possible in some sheltered valley locations Sunday
  morning, but is expected to be most widespread Sunday
  night/Monday morning and again Monday night/Tuesday morning,
  especially through the valleys.

- Another cold front is forecast to pass late Tuesday through
  Wednesday morning, bringing a round of light rain along with a
  small thunderstorm chance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

Minor adjustments were made to sky cover, temperature, and
dewpoint grids based on recent observations and satellite and
radar trends. Drizzle or light showers linger across much of the
area and the previous pops had a good handle on this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 447 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

A cold front will exit southeast out of the area early this
evening, with remaining showers tapering to areas of drizzle
behind the front. Drier air will slowly displace the lingering low
level moisture, and drizzle should taper off from northwest to
southeast during the night and clouds will start to break up.

Surface high pressure dropping south through the Great Plains and
ridging eastward will bring us fair weather Saturday and Saturday
night, while benign nearly zonal flow aloft occurs. A wave
rippling through the upper level flow over the Deep South is
expected to send some high clouds north over our area late
Saturday night. This could factor into the temperature forecast
and hold mins up slightly, especially for our southern counties.
Based on expected Saturday highs and dew points, temperatures
will probably cool enough for a threat of frost in some locations
by Sunday morning, with the minor effects of the high clouds
coming into play in the frost potential.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

The 21/12z model suite analysis beginning Sunday morning shows a
mean upper level trough in place over the Northeast/Ohio
Valley/Midwest. Narrow upper level ridging extends from the Central
Rockies north northeast into Saskatchewan and then northwestward
into the Northwest Territories. This ridging is bordered to the
west by another trough near/over British Columbia. At the
surface, a ~1030 mb high will be centered over/near Kansas, but
the anticyclone will be influencing the weather across most of
the nation east of Rockies, the exception being portions of Gulf
Coast States and Georgia/Carolinas near a cold front.

That cold front will continue to sag southeast Sunday and Monday.
In its stead, the upper level ridging will shift east and
subside. The corresponding surface high will also shift east,
becoming elongated from the Lower Mississippi Valley on up across
the Appalachians into New England by Monday evening. Meanwhile,
the trough over western Canada will be dropping southeastward,
initiating a lee-side low over Alberta/Saskatchewan. This system
tracks eastward through mid-week, though there is still
substantial spread as to low`s exact track and intensity. In most
scenarios, high pressure will largely dissipate off the East
Coast as the aforementioned low drags another cold front through
most of the eastern CONUS, including eastern Kentucky on
Wednesday. High pressure briefly builds in again from Canada for
Thursday. Another storm system of Pacific origin may affect the
Commonwealth toward the end of the forecast period, but lack of
run-to-run model consistency leaves the details obscure at this
point.

In more sensible terms, the high pressure will bring fair weather
and a warming trend through Tuesday. The coldest temperatures of the
period are forecast on Sunday and Sunday night when high
temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s can be
expected nearly area-wide. Those with cold-sensitive vegetation will
want to monitor the frost potential on Sunday night and early Monday
morning, especially in the typically colder valley locales. Monday
will be milder with widespread maximum temperatures in the middle
60s under a cool northerly breeze. Winds won`t shift to the
southwest until Tuesday night when the high pressure ridge axis
passes. With dry air and relatively cloud free skies still in place,
another chilly night with a touch of frost can be expected Monday
night with minimum temperatures deep in the 30s for many deeper
valley locales. Ridges will largely see minimum temperatures in
the lower to middle 40s. Some of the warmest temperatures for the
period are expected on Tuesday as return flow increases ahead of
the next cold front. Southwesterly breezes gusting up to around
20-25 mph will help raise afternoon temperatures into the 68-75
range for most locations. Rain chances rise from the northwest
Tuesday evening as that cold front approaches and peak overnight
before falling off on Wednesday. Overall QPF with this system
appears light (0.20 inch or less in northern counties ranging to
little or nothing along the Kentucky/Tennessee border).
Temperatures behind the front again cool off into the 60s to near
70 on Wednesday and Thursday. A touch of frost cannot be ruled
out again in the sheltered valley locales on late Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. Low temperatures are forecast to range in
the lower to mid 30s in the most sheltered valleys up to the lower
40s on ridges. Southerly flow returns by Friday as the next storm
system approaches, but the time of arrival for rainfall in our
area remains uncertain. Retained NBM PoP (30 to 40 %) and high
temperatures (upper 60s to lower 70s) during this time but those
values could easily trend lower or higher as weather models get a
better grasp on this next system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

At issuance time, VFR was reported for areas near and north of
I-64 with a mixture of IFR and MVFR to the south. Areas of drizzle
or light showers were also present, but these were not reducing
visibilities. Gradual improvements from northwest to southeast to
VFR are anticipated during the first 9 to 12 hours of the period.
Also, areas of drizzle and showers should taper off from northwest
to southeast during the first 6 hours of the period. Some of the
LAMP guidance suggests fog formation later tonight possibly
affecting the TAF sites. Confidence in this was not high enough to
include at this point, but as clouds break toward dawn some fog
formation is not out of the question. Otherwise, VFR should
prevail by the last 12 hours of the period. Winds will average
between northwest and north at less than 10KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP