Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
942 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Hourly temperatures have been running a bit lower than forecast
this morning as a result of the widespread shower activity. Bumped
these values back in line with the latest observations, but left
afternoon highs unchanged.

12Z LCH RAOB observed a PWAT value of 2.36 inches which is only
.02 inches from the daily record and well above the 90th
percentile value of 1.95. A frontal boundary extending across
northeast Texas into southern Arkansas this morning will continue
to gradually work its way south through the day maintaining
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region as it does
so. Some of these storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall that could lead to some localized flash flooding. Reports
of some street flooding around Orange, TX have already been
received this morning. The remainder of the forecast is on track.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018/

12z taf issuance.

Radar rapidly filling with scattered to numerous showers/isolated
thunderstorms across the coastal waters northward into the I-10
corridor parishes/counties this morning. Intermittent MVFR
visibility/ceilings will accompany the periods of SHRA at
LCH/LFT/ARA, with VCTS beginning at 15z. VCTS with intermittent
TSRA beginning a bit earlier at BPT with larger complex of
SHRA/TSRA moving NE from GLS. This will be the story for the
remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours further inland.
Activity expected to diminish by 02-03z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...Local radar currently offline. Tech is addressing
the issue. Regional mosaic showing scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms over the near coastal waters with this
activity advancing inland.

Surface analysis showing high pressure ridging across the
southeast CONUS and adjacent coastal waters. Low pressure and an
accompanying NE-SW oriented cool front bisects Arkansas and
extends across north Texas. Surface boundary will advance across
the forecast area mainly through the overnight hours with the
approach of a shortwave trof across the southern plains. It still
remains in question how far south it will make it before stalling
and washing out. Going with the idea it will make it offshore of
our forecast area and drop temperatures and dewpoints area-wide
a few degrees.

Airmass over the forecast area remains deep in tropical moisture
with the evening LCH sounding coming in with PWAT at 2.31 inches.
Forecast 1000-500 hPa RH progged to increase to 80 percent plus
through the day. Carrying likely pops and certainly could see some
locally heavy rainfall with the approach of upper trof and front.
QPFs at this time however fall short of a need for a Flash Flood
Watch. Will continue to monitor. Deep tropical moisture continues
to linger over the area through the remainder of the week with
respectable rain chances remaining.

MARINE...Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain
considerable through the remainder of the week as deep
tropical moisture holds over the northwest Gulf. Winds will
remain light and primarily southerly for today and tonight,
but transition to offshore Thursday as a weak cold front
advances into the near coastal waters.


AEX  84  70  80  69 /  80  50  40  20
LCH  84  73  82  72 /  80  50  50  20
LFT  84  72  83  71 /  80  50  60  20
BPT  84  73  82  72 /  80  50  50  30




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