Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 172205
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
305 PM PDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with above normal temperatures through at least
Saturday afternoon. Clouds begin to spread up into White Pine
County Saturday evening, and expand across most of central and
portions of northern NV by Sunday afternoon with rain shower
becoming possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Sunny across most of the
region this afternoon, the exception being over and near Great
Basin Park in far east-central NV where mostly cloudy will
persist into this evening as an upper level low sits over southern
UT and northern AZ. The low will gradually drift east on Thursday
leaving sunny skies across the entire CWA. High pressure builds in
over the Pacific NW on Friday, while at the same time low pressure
builds over southern CA. This brief blocking pattern will keep
northern and central NV sunny with above normal temperatures
again on Friday.


.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday. The blocking
pattern Friday lingers over the western US into Friday night, then
begins to break down on Saturday allowing clouds and moisture to
spread up into east-central NV Saturday night as weak low pressure
centers across the Great Basin. Clouds will expand across most of
central and northeastern NV on Sunday. Latest model guidance is
showing weak instability developing over east-central NV on
Sunday. Have added isolated thunderstorms to northeastern Nye and
most of White Pine County for Sunday afternoon. Most of the rest
of central and northeastern NV will have a chance for rain showers
Sunday afternoon and evening. Models continue to show lingering
rain showers over central and northeastern NV Monday, which will
taper off Monday night into Tuesday morning as the weak low over
the Great Basin weakens and drifts off to the east. At this time
pretty high confidence in showers Sunday into Monday, however
confidence in QPF amounts is more uncertain. Likely dry Monday
night into Tuesday morning across the CWA. On Tuesday there may be
two separate areas of light precipitation. The first over east-
central NV as weak trough energy centers over the four corners
region which may extend far enough west to bring light
precipitation to the Great Basin Park area. The second area will
be far northwestern portions of the CWA including northern
Humboldt County as near-zonal flow aloft pushing more shower
activity in off the eastern Pacific Ocean. Wednesday into Thursday
as this zonal flow expands eastward, there will be increased
chances of rain across far northern Humboldt and Elko Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering clouds near KELY into this evening,
otherwise clear skies with relatively light winds across the
region through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with relatively light winds and above normal
temperatures through Saturday. Showers are expected to spread up
into zone 455 Saturday night, with isolated thunderstorms possible
Sunday afternoon over eastern 457, along with most of zones 455
and potentially up into the southern most portion of zone 470.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

96/96/96/96


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