Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1257 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Temperatures got down to the 36-37 degree range at a couple sites in
our northern stripe of counties, but cloud cover likely limited too
much frost formation this morning. Just allowed that advisory to
expire and have updated the forecast to remove early morning
wording. Mid-/upper-level clouds coming in from the southwest will
scatter out some, especially over southern IN/northern KY this
afternoon, allowing some filter sunshine. Still looking for highs in
the mid to upper 50s.


.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Quiet weather this morning, with the main challenge being cloud
cover/temperature trends today. We`ll continue to see fast westerly
flow aloft through the short term. Sfc high pressure was centered
off to our west early this morning, with a light northerly wind in
central KY and southern IN. These winds will veer westerly this
afternoon as sfc high`s influence diminishes.

We`re seeing copious high clouds stream ENE overhead, with low
stratus lingering over the southeastern forecast area. Mid and upper
40s were common in central KY, with upper 30s to around 40 in
southern IN. Did go ahead and boost cloud cover through the rest of
the morning, with a mostly cloudy forecast all day across the
southern half of the area. High clouds across Indiana this morning
will be thinner in nature, so plan is to hold on to the Frost
Advisory. With a few breaks in the thin cirrus, temps north of the
river may dip briefly into the 34-38 degree range closer to dawn.
Widespread frost is not likely, however. The coldest temperatures
will be limited to sheltered valleys and typical cool spots.

Despite cooler temperatures aloft, partly sunny skies will allow the
northern half of the area to warm faster. Clouds will mean steadier
temps in the south and southeast. The result should be a lot of mid
50s this afternoon, with a few spots into the upper 50s. A slightly
tighter pressure gradient will keep a steady west wind tonight, with
higher clouds lingering especially over southern KY. Lows will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

On Wednesday, a mid-level trough sitting just to the CWA`s northeast
continues to slowly move east. This trough will be replaced by a mid-
level ridge located with a surface high which will move in over the
CWA by Thursday morning. The surface high will bring a north
component to the wind, clear skies, and cooler temperatures.
Wednesday morning isn`t expected to have much frost, but Thursday
morning could see widespread frost through southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass Region of Kentucky. Highs Thursday will make it to the mid

Early Friday, winds will shift to the south ahead of a quickly
advancing mid-level trough and cold front moving in from the Plains.
This shift will bring moisture north from the Gulf. Rain chances
will likely move into the CWA by mid-day. Widespread rain is
expected through the afternoon until Saturday morning. That is when
showers will come to an end with the passage of the cold front.

Sunday and Monday expect cool temperatures and widespread frost as a
surface high pressure, a mid-level ridge, clear skies, and a north
winds follow the cold front. This will remain until a surface high
passes the CWA early Monday followed by a south wind advecting
warmer air through the CWA and raising temperatures for Tuesday
morning in the 40s and highs in the 60s.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Fuel-alternate stratus finally breaking in the GLW/BWG area. Cannot
rule out a brief reprisal in the next hour or two, but will leave
out of this forecast given low confidence. Rest of the period is
fairly quiet, though a dry cold front will cross the region
Wednesday morning. Expect a wind shift late in the period, from
light and variable to northwesterly around 10 knots.




Short Term...EBW
Long Term...KDW
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