Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 202003
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018


.DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly sunny across much of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Current heat
index values are close to 110 degrees in areas where the excessive
heat warning is in effect. Currently, a cold front extends from
northern Indiana into central Missouri.

This cold front will continue to drop south tonight and move into
the forecast area overnight. Additional thunderstorms are expected
to develop ahead of the front tonight and move into the forecast
area. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe with
damaging winds as the main threat but large hail and isolated
tornadoes can`t be ruled out especially over northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures will remain rather seasonable with lows Saturday
morning in the low to mid 70s.

The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
Saturday with scattered thunderstorms expected ahead of the front
mainly over north Mississippi. Temperatures will be a little
cooler with highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values will be
lower on Saturday so no Heat Advisory should be needed. High
pressure will briefly build into the region for Saturday night
bringing dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures.

An upper level disturbance will drop south into Middle Tennessee
on Sunday with scattered thunderstorms possible over eastern
sections of the forecast area for Sunday and Sunday night. Monday
may see some scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern
sections of the forecast area.

Another cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move
into the forecast area on Wednesday. This will mean more
thunderstorms both days. This front will die out across the
forecast area on Thursday but another front will start to approach
the region Thursday and next Friday so more thunderstorms are
expected to form.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs

Very conditional forecast this afternoon and tonight dependent on
daytime heating, a weak midlevel disturbance and numerous outflow
boundaries lingering from prior convection. It looks less likely
that we will see thunderstorms this afternoon...but short term high
resolution guidance continues to bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms across the Midsouth tonight. Brief periods of MVFR
or lower visibility, along with locally gusty winds is likely in
association with thunderstorms. Included 3-4 hour TEMPO groups
based on model guidance timing. Storms should come to an end
by sunrise with the exception at perhaps TUP. Tomorrow looks
mostly dry at JBR, MKL and MEM. A few storms may linger near TUP.

Prevailing wind will be mainly from the South to Southwest
5-10kt this afternoon and overnight, shifting more from the West
to Northwest Tomorrow.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-
     Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Lauderdale-Shelby-Tipton.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Madison-McNairy-Obion-
     Weakley.

&&

$$


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