Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 161500
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today, followed
by a second, stronger cold front Wednesday. High pressure will
build in from the northwest late in the week. Another cold front
is expected to move through the area this weekend, followed by
dry and cool conditions early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...The cold front has pushed to near Oregon
Inlet westward to just north of the Pamlico River late this
morning will will continue to progess south through the day,
stalling along or just south of southern sections late this
afternoon. Late morning update captures T/Td, PoP and wind
trends otherwise forecast in good shape.

Strengthening high pressure over the Virginia Piedmont will
force this shallow cold front into the area this morning.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible near the front as it
progresses through the area over the course of the day, but
overcast skies and unimpressive mid level lapse rates will limit
coverage and intensity of precip. Moist flow overriding the
front will cause overcast conditions to prevail, and highs will
be around 10 degrees cooler than Monday despite a weakening
trend in cold air advection through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tue...By this evening, high pressure over the
northern Mid-Atlantic will weaken and elongate zonally, stunting
the southward progression of the cold front. Meanwhile, a low-
to-mid level shortwave rounding the base of the large scale
trough over the eastern US will work across North Carolina. Late
tonight, the front will lift back north into the area in
response to the approaching wave, allowing low level moisture to
increase. Likely POPs remain in the forecast for much of the
area for late Tuesday as the wave passes over the area.
Instability remains limited, precluding any significant severe
weather threat, but a few downpours within a larger area of
light to moderate showers are possible. The wave will pass off
the coast around Sunrise Wednesday, conclusively forcing the
cold front south of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 am Tue...The second cold front pushes through
Wednesday, followed by a drier and cooler airmass to filter into
the region; bringing seasonal fall weather for the forecast
period.

Wednesday through Friday...The cold front from today will linger to
the south of our forecast area with a weak low developing along it
off the NC coast, meanwhile the secondary cold front and its
associated rainfall will move into the area Wednesday. Most of the
showers are expected to slide offshore during by late morning as
conditions start to clear from north to south during the afternoon
as drier air filter in. The cooler air will arrival Wednesday night
as the high builds into the region from the NW. The center of the
high will move offshore Friday afternoon.

Temperatures for Wednesday will be a little tricky and depends how
fast the clouds erode away, but at this time forecasting highs in
the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast. Thursday and Friday,
these days will be beautiful fall weather days with highs in the
60s. Expect overnight lows to drop into the 40s inland and mid 50s
coast Wednesday and Thursday. Friday night lows are expected to be
slightly warmer as high pressure moves offshore and brings warm
southernly flow; expect lows in the 50s across the area.

Saturday through early next week...The latest models (GFS/Euro)
continue to show good agreement with a significant longwave trough
to sink down from the Northern Plains towards the Carolinas during
this period. At surface, a cold front is progged to approach the
area Saturday, along with rain showers associated with it.
Afterward, models have high pressure building into the region,
bringing more fall weather to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday night/...
As of 715 AM Tue...Shallow, light fog plaguing the region this
morning will erode quickly with the onset of solar insulation
over the next hour or so. A shallow cold front near the NC/VA
border will progress southward through they day today, with a
modest northerly wind surge immediately following the front.
Moist air overriding the front will result in prevailing MVFR
ceilings, with occasional passing showers/storms, for all
terminals beginning this morning and continuing into the
evening. The exception is at KPGV, where low level dry air
filling in behind the front could bring several hours of VFR
conditions this afternoon. Tonight, guidance is in agreement
that conditions will deteriorate through the overnight hours as
a low level disturbance traverses the area, and IFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the overnight, with LIFR
conditions possible early Wednesday morning.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 315 AM
Tue...VFR conditions for most of the week, except for Wednesday
morning and Saturday as MVFR and possible IFR under rainy
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Generally southwesterly flow prevails through
the early morning hours south of an approaching cold front. This
front will begin to work across the waters by mid-morning. A
pinched gradient north of the front will allow northerly winds
to gust into the mid-20 kt range for a couple of hours this
morning immediately behind the front for waters north of Oregon
Inlet. The period of these gusts is too short to justify a
Small Craft Advisory. The front will weaken as it progresses
across the rest of the waters through the day, with all of the
waters experiencing moderate northerly winds by late afternoon.
Generally light flow prevails overnight as disturbance brings
unsettled weather to the area. Mainly 2 to 3 ft seas increase to
3 to 4 ft in northeasterly wind chop behind the front.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tue... A secondary cold front will push through
the coastal water Wednesday leading to a surge of stronger winds
after the frontal passage and then another cold front this
weekend.

Wednesday, expect northwest winds 10-15 knots, then becoming north
20-25 knots which will lead to small craft conditions Wednesday
night through most of Thursday. Seas will range from 4 to 6 feet,
highest over the central and northern waters. Thursday night, winds
start to diminish 10-20 knots and then 5-10 knots Friday as the high
pressure center is over the area. Seas will subside below 6 ft
Thursday night and becoming 2-4 ft Friday. Winds will increase again
as the gradient tightens with the next approaching cold front
Saturday with SW winds 15-25 knots and seas building 3-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...BM/CB
MARINE...BM/CB


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