Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 160805
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain offshore through Tuesday. A cold
front will move in from the northwest Tuesday night and push
through the region Wednesday. The front will lift back north
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Benign conditions across E NC early this
morning, with seasonably mild temperatures. Sct/bkn cirrus
streaming through on wrly flow aloft. A weak low/coastal trough
is to the SE of Cape Fear and producing some iso showers across
the southern coastal waters. This feature will move across
coastal E NC through today, though forcing is quite weak and
atms moisture quite limited, so no more than iso showers
expected for mainly eastern portions of the FA today. Otherwise,
hot and muggy conditions expected with near climo highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 interior and mid/upr 80s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Temps will be a bit warmer tonight and
moisture increases across the area. Still no showers expected,
with exception along far south and immediate coast where better
moisture convergence could spur a couple showers or storms
developing through the overnight. Otherwise, warm and muggy with
lows in the 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 330 am Monday...

Tuesday through Wednesday... A broad trough aloft will move through
the area, while a cold front approaches the region from the
northwest Tuesday night. At the surface, high pressure extends from
the Western Atlantic, providing a southerly flow and rich moisture
with precip values above 2.00 inches into the area, while a Piedmont
trough inland. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with
possible severe over the inland areas on Tuesday ahead of the front
as the latest 00z/16 models are suggesting MUCAPE values up to 3000
J/Kg and bulk shear 10-20 kts. As the cold front moves closer to
Eastern NC, showers and thunderstorms will become widespread and
heavy Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are suggesting the front
will stall over the southern portions of our forecast area on
Wednesday. It will depend how far south will the front stall and how
much dry air advects in behind the cold front, will depend if there
is the potential for another round of severe weather. At this time,
SPC Severe Weather Outlook has the area in general thunderstorms for
both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, expect additional showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with heavy rainfall which can lead to
localized flooding. Expect highs in the upper 80s inland and low/mid
80s along the coast. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to
mid 70s.

Wednesday night through weekend...Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Wednesday night as drier air advects in as high
pressure build in from the north, but some shower activity may
linger near the stall frontal boundary on Thursday. Models have the
stalled front to our south lifting north on Friday with a low
developing along the boundary this weekend. Meanwhile, a significant
shortwave trough along the northern stream deepens over the Great
Lakes/Midwest with a sfc low developing. At this time confidence is
low how the two lows will interact/impact our area. Overall, expect
showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Expect highs
in the upper 80s inland and low/mid 80s along the coast with
overnight lows in the low 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 111 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected at the TAF
sites through the period. Cannot rule out patchy light fog just
before daybreak but should be shallow and brief with minimal
impacts. May see some iso showers in the AM, esp for KEWN,
though covg very limited so will not mention in TAFs attm.

Long Term /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 345 AM Monday...Sub-VFR with possible IFR conditions as
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms move through the
area ahead of the approaching cold front Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR
conditions returns Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Mon...S winds around 10 kt will remain this way
through today. The S winds will inc slightly this evening to
10-15 kt. Seas mainly 2-3 ft today will build a bit tonight to
3-4 ft.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Monday...SW winds increase to 15-25 knots Tuesday
ahead of the cold front, then becoming NE 5-10 knots Wednesday
after the frontal passage and continues through Thursday. Winds
will veer to the SE 10-15 knots Friday. Seas 2-4 ft Tuesday,
then building 4-7 ft Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
Seas will subside by Wednesday afternoon/evening to 3-4 ft and
continue through Friday. Small Craft Advisory is in effect south
of Oregon Inlet from Tuesday to Wednesday morning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...TL/BM


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