Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 210809
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
209 AM CST Wed Nov 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Cloud cover has finally dissipated, and seeing clear skies across
the area. This has caused temps to drop a bit faster than
expected, and thus areas of fog have developed as well. Currently
fog is confined to river valleys and low lying areas, and will
continue to monitor for more widespread development. Will likely
issue an SPS to cover patchy dense fog as most sites are bouncing
between around a mile to 5 miles or so of visibility.

Upper level ridging slowly works its way eastward over the next
few days, so expecting drier conditions with warming temps today
and Thursday. By Friday, a Plains trough moves quickly eastward
towards the area, and cloud cover will build in from west to east.
Models are also hinting at the surface pressure gradient
tightening up a bit during the day, so ramped up winds a bit as
well. Southerly winds ahead of the trough look to be around 15
mph, and gusts 25 to 30 mph possible on Friday afternoon,
especially for higher elevations. Rain looks to begin in the west
by mid afternoon Friday, and quickly spread across the mid state
by Friday evening. Around 9 pm through 6 am looks to be the best
shot at heavier rainfall, but current storm total rainfall is only
around a half inch up to an inch or so across the area. Lingering
showers look to hold on Saturday morning, but the fast moving
trough should be over the eastern portions of TN and allow for
dissipating cloud cover from west to east Saturday afternoon, with
highs reaching around 60.

A much stronger upper closed low will be the next story for the
mid state Sunday. Long term models lined up a bit better
yesterday, and today`s solutions are different from eachother.
Both the GFS and ECMWF have the upper low much further north.
Instead of the upper low over KY/Ohio River Valley, they now place
the upper low over central IL 00Z Monday. The Canadian is now
lagging quite a bit behind having the low over the OK/KS border at
the same time. Went with the GFS/ECMWF blend on timing for now
which places the best precip chances in Sunday afternoon through
early Monday morning. Even with the further north location of the
low, there may still be some air cold enough behind the cold front
to have some mixed precip/snow, but still looks too dry for any
mention. Waiting on higher confidence and consistent model
solutions to try and nail down any precip other than rain Monday
morning.

Tuesday onward, models want to place a broad upper low over the
Great Lakes region. This may bring some isolated precip chances to
the area, but went with a drier solution for now as lack of
moisture may win out and keep pops out of the long term forecast.
High temps will be a bit cooler next week, mainly in the 40s
Monday through Wednesday with the absence of any significant WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The clearing line has finally made it to CKV and it is getting
closer and closer to BNA and MQY. Will have skies clearing out
across the mid part of the forecast area around 08Z. The MVFR
clouds will hang out over CSV through the overnight hours. The
clouds will begin to lift and become VFR after 14Z and will
hopefully clear out by 00Z. Winds will be light from the NW to
calm overnight all across middle TN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  33  58  38  55 /   0   0   0   0  30
Clarksville    52  32  57  37  55 /   0   0   0   0  30
Crossville     47  31  53  35  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
Columbia       52  32  58  38  53 /   0   0   0   0  30
Lawrenceburg   52  33  58  39  51 /   0   0   0   0  40
Waverly        52  34  58  40  52 /   0   0   0   0  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........12



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