Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 180655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
155 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Ongoing showers are affecting areas mainly east of I-65 early this
morning, and have diminished somewhat from earlier coverage. An
upper trough will come through Middle Tennessee during the next
few hours, but a surface boundary approaching from the northwest
will stall over the mid state/Tennessee Valley until early next
week. POP`s will decrease considerably after today owing to the
trough passage, but enough moisture will stay around to warrant at
least isolated/scattered rain chances the remainder of the
weekend. Both the GFS & Euro continue to bring a progressive low
pressure system across the region on Tuesday, so look for POP`s to
increase back to likely beginning Monday. The atmosphere will dry
out considerably by midweek as a significantly cooler air mass
introduces temperatures several degrees below normal for the
remainder of the week. A surface ridge will slip east of the mid
state by next weekend, allowing some moisture to seep back in, so
maybe we`ll see small rain chances again by next Saturday. At this
time, QPF`s for today and again Monday/Tuesday don`t seem
excessively high. We will have to monitor previously rain-soaked
areas for additional precipitation and possible flooding today,
but the updated SPC outlook leaves us out of any severe weather
risk for today.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Consensus of short range model runs showing the
potential of rounds of at least shwrs training at least in the
vcnty of CSV thru 19/06Z. Most confidence of terminal impacts CSV
thru 19/06Z. Some MVFR fog possible CSV 18/10Z-18/13Z. For CKV/
MQY/BNA, have less certainty with at least VCSH possible BNA/MQY
thru at least 18/03Z. VFR, MVFR fog if breaks in ceilings occur,
will be possible at these terminals generally 18/09Z-18/15Z. VFR
conditions should prevail at all terminals by 18/15Z. Long range
model consensus continuing to show best moisture remaining over
Cumberland Plateau Region 18/15Z-19/06Z. However, instability to
the W will remain. Thus, mentioned VCTS at all terminals
18/18Z-19/02Z. The potential of shwrs should end in CKV/BNA/MQY
by around 19/04Z. Generally, over valid TAF period, sfc winds
will generally be SW TO W 5-10 kt range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  72  89  72  88 /  60  30  30  20  60
Clarksville    85  69  87  71  85 /  50  20  20  20  60
Crossville     78  67  81  68  81 /  70  50  40  30  50
Columbia       84  70  87  71  86 /  60  30  30  30  60
Lawrenceburg   84  69  86  70  86 /  60  40  30  30  60
Waverly        84  69  87  71  86 /  50  20  20  20  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........31


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