Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 160940
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
540 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until the passage
of a cold front on late tonight and Tuesday. Cooler and less
humid conditions are expected for mid week under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some minor adjustments to the forecast based on satellite
and near term models. Otherwise, mid level ridging should
maintain mainly dry weather this morning. This ridge should move
E of the area this afternoon as a shortwave trough and
associated cold front begin to approach from the west. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by afternoon
as convective thresholds are met. Moderate instability and a
weak wind flow should result in localized strong storms and
locally heavy rain. Will mention this potential in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook. Another warm and humid day is expected with
highs around 5 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave and associated cold front is expected to cross the
region tonight through part of Tuesday. Continued with a band
of likely POPs with its approach and passage. Waning instability
and increasing wind flow aloft should preclude a severe or
widespread flood potential.

Sfc high pressure building under a NE CONUS upper trough should
result in dry and cooler weather Tue night through Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather through Thu night. Periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to return as a
trough progged to advance ewd out of the Plains reaches the
Upper Midwest and OH Valley region late in the week through the
weekend. Temperatures are expected to average near seasonal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR forecast through most of the day. Patchy MVFR fog
is possible at the fog prone ports early this morning.

Sct-Bkn cu is expected through the forecast period, with the
risk for showers and storms increasing from NW to SE late in the
afternoon and through the evening hours.

OUTLOOK...
Restriction potential continues into early Tuesday with
scattered showers and low clouds. A return to VFR is expected
later Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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