Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 162327 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
727 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected until the approach and passage of a
Wednesday cold front. Dry weather is expected to return Thursday
through early Friday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A ridge of high pressure should maintain dry weather tonight. An
increasing pressure gradient between the high and an
approaching cold front from the N should keep winds around 5-10
mph as lows drop to near or just below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday with the
approach and passage of an upper trough and its associated sfc
cold front. More numerous coverage is expected N of I 80, where
the best upper support is progged, and where some lake
enhancement is expected. The pressure gradient should further
tighten through the day. This, along with mixing, should result
in wind gusts of 30-35 mph, with gusts around 40 mph in the
higher terrain.

Showers should taper off Wednesday night as the upper trough
exits. There will be slight chance that snow will mix in with
rain showers in our northeastern counties late Wed night.
However, a building high pressure to the west could cut off our
moisture supply before the ideal time frame for snow to form.
Regardless if snow does fall, the ground will too warm for any
accumulation to form.

With the sfc high pressure pushing through, Thursday will remain
dry and mostly sunny. However, high temperatures will be
struggling to get to 50 degrees everywhere as cold air from the
north continues to seep into our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warmer temperatures return Friday as weak upper shortwave
ridging passes over the area. However, the ridge will be short
lived as another upper level trough moves over the Great Lakes.

Rain chances will increase late Friday and into Saturday morning
as a swath of warm air from the south cuts across the
Appalachians. Rain chances will taper off throughout Sunday
afternoon and evening as another sfc high builds in the lower
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface winds will increase through the day Wednesday ahead of
cold frontal passage...with peak wind gusts ranging from 20 to
almost 30kts during the afternoon hours.

FKL, DUJ, and areas to the north will see MVFR ceilings and
accompanying lake effect rain showers during the late
morning/afternoon period. Cold air behind the front plus strong
NW flow aloft will create a chance for light snow showers for
these sites as well...but best timing will be after the TAF
period.

Otherwise...VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the
region.

Outlook...
More widespread restrictions and rain are likely
with a Fri night/Sat cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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