Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 200834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
234 AM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...Hints of cloud cover on satellite over northern
Idaho were quickly dissipated overnight, and thus another clear
sky day is forecast. The weekend is forecast to be quite beautiful
with no weather worries across the board - just sun and fun.
Moisture begins to work back into the area overnight Sunday into
Monday morning. Have left the mention of showers out of our
forecast Sunday in favor of precip over Utah. The Canadian weather
model continues to be an outlier, bringing in showers to the
Central Mountains during this time. Cannot find a reason to
support this but still feel it is worth noting in case this model
ends up being the correct solution after all. Isolated showers
will begin to make their way from south to north Monday morning
and continue throughout the day. Increasing chances for precip is
expected Tuesday morning for areas south of I-86, however, there
is little organization to what would happen with this weather
system. This system is not especially plentiful when it comes to
rainfall or snow production. We can barely squeak an inch of snow
out of this system in the higher elevations. Brief high pressure
ridging is forecast for the middle portion of the week (Wed into
Thu) before an upper trough arrives from the west. Chances for
precip is expected to increase Friday. NP/RS


.AVIATION...Upper ridging remains dominant, and the boundary layer
remains dry today. Sub tropical moisture moves northward Sunday, a
few rain showers are expected vicinity of KBYI and KPIH Sunday
evening, maybe as far north as KIDA by Monday morning. Ceilings with
showers probably near 5000 feet AGL. Morning lows Sunday and Monday
morning above freezing at those three sites. No freezing rain or
snow issues. RS


.FIRE WEATHER...A high pressure ridge over southeastern Idaho
will provide warm and dry conditions today. The Middle Snake River
Valley and Southern Snake Plain will see persistent easterly winds
of 5 to 10 mph. Elsewhere, more slope valley winds are expected. The
low pressure center we expected to develop near the California coast
appears to be developing just a short distance off the coast. This
is enough that southerly winds developing to the east side of this
low will be felt some in Nevada as well as Arizona and Utah. By
Sunday evening, subtropical moisture moving northward could develop
some isolated rain showers further west near Rogerson and Three
Creek area. This also means on Monday, showers have a better chance
of advancing into the central mountains around Hailey and Stanley.
There is little change in the rest of the forecast. Westerly winds
begin to advance inland on Wednesday. The first disturbance will
favor precipitation the Idaho Pan Handle Wednesday. The second
disturbance will have a greater chance of bringing showers to the
central mountains and the eastern highlands as well both Thursday
and Friday. snow levels remain elevated near 8000 feet elevation. RS



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