


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
298 FXZS60 NSTU 160101 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 201 PM SST Tue Jul 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... Fair weather conditions with gentle to moderate easterlies continue to be observed throughout the day. This is further observed through the latest satellite imageries and hourly observations in the last couple of hours. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (16/00Z) shows stable conditions over the islands. The National Blend Model (NBM) ensembles show minimal shower activity over the islands for tonight through the rest of the week. This is mainly due to a mid-level high pressure system remaining over the area through the end of the week. This high pressure will also maintain a moderate easterly flow through the beginning of the new week. By the new week, an increase potential for showers is expected as model data projects a low pressure system moving close to the area from the west-southwest. Therefore, expect passing showers with moderate to fresh easterlies for tonight through at least Wednesday. Easterlies will decrease to a more gentle to moderate flow for the rest of the week. Easterlies will likely turn northeast with numerous showers by the end of this forecast period. && .Marine... The latest observations from the PacIOOS buoy to the west (King- Poloa) reports wave heights around 7 to 9 feet with peak periods around 15 to 17 seconds long. These conditions are known to enhance surfs and generate dangerous rip currents along the shorelines, especially the south to west facing shores. Hence, prompting a high surf advisory for these shorelines. Model data shows this long period southwest swell lingering in the area through at least Thursday. Model solutions also show a downward trend in seas starting Wednesday. However, the long periods may prolong the high surfs and dangerous rip currents. By Thursday, model data is showing periods briefly easing below 10 seconds, and increase again by Thursday night. Will continue to monitor conditions as the week progresses and as more data becomes available. In the meantime, advisories for small crafts and high surfs are in place for coastal waters and all islands of American Samoa. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen