Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 162200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
800 AM ChST Wed Oct 17 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows a surface trough to the west of the Marianas waters.
Thunderstorms along the trough axis are seen along a line from
12N143E to 16N144E. The weather balloon from last night shows
southeast winds 5 to 15 knots through the lowest 5 thousand feet of
the air. Above this the winds become variable then shift to the west
at around 11 thousand feet. They then vary between northwest and
southwest and between 5 and 15 knots through almost 50 thousand feet.
The buoys show combined seas of 3 to 4 feet.


The trough has moved west, still lots of clouds moving toward Guam
and Rota though. The question is, how much shower activity is in
those clouds? Without the radar, it can be difficult to figure out.
Either way, the activity should decrease after today. The next few
days look fair, then the next disturbance, currently near 160E, will
make its presence known for the weekend. Other than lightning, there
are no weather related hazards anticipated for the Marianas through
the middle of next week.

.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough could be found over the Marshall Islands this
morning. It will move very slowly westward and generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across Majuro today through
Thursday night. Trade-wind convergence in the wake of the trough
will continue to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over
Majuro Friday and Saturday. The trough will move west but remain
north of Kosrae and Pohnpei. As Kosrae is south of the activity only
expect partly cloudy skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms there
today through Thursday night. Low-level convergence will generate
mostly cloudy skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms at Kosrae
Friday through Sunday and at Pohnpei today and again on Sunday.


.Western Micronesia...
A surface trough extends from 10N130E to a circulation northwest of
Yap to a second circulation near Chuuk. Low-level convergence south
of the trough and the Yap circulation will generate scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across Palau and Yap today through
Thursday night. The Yap circulation will move slowly west and
eventually dissipate which will cause a decrease in activity across
Palau and Yap. Chuuk remains too far east of all the current activity
so expect only partly cloudy skies and isolated showers there today
and tonight. The surface trough will remain in-place for awhile north
of 10N and a new circulation will form on it by the weekend.
Low-level convergence will increase at Chuuk before the circulation
forms and continue as it move west, north of 10N. While most of the
activity will remain north of Chuuk, expect at least mostly cloudy
skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms there Thursday through


Marianas Waters...None.


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