Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171040
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
440 AM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Closed upper low across northern AZ will continue lifting northward
into UT over the next 24 hours.  WV shows quite a bit of mid/upper
level dry air punching northward across NW NM into the 4 corners
region with the upper jet.  However low levels and area radars show
a continual feed of low/mid level moisture and clouds associated
with isentropic upglide.  So while it isn`t a particularly deep tap
of moisture, there is some saturation in the low to mid levels
across the southwest mountains.  Seeing some METARS with reports of -
SN across the southwest mountains and while web cams are not showing
much accumulation yet, have found a couple sites down around
Hesperus showing some snow. With latest model runs now honed in on a
more westward track as the upper low lifts northward it looks more
likely that the southwest mountains, which will be under the best
lift with this system, will stay under advisory level snow amounts
over the next 24 hours. Greatest accumulations will occur today with
around 2 to 4 inches across the higher elevations of the San Juans
and La Garitas. Sangre De Cristos could see around 1-3 inches with
greatest amounts along the southern Sangres crest.  Other mountains
today will see scattered showers at times though snow accumulations
should stay under an inch or two across the higher peaks.
Temperatures will be cooler as more extensive cloud cover spreads up
from the south. There could be a few isolated showers across
southern portions of the plains this morning but these should be
spotty.

Southern CO stays under the WAA side of the storm through tonight.
Clouds will keep temperatures more mild tonight, particularly across
the plains as upglide intensifies again towards 12z.  Could see some
showers associated with this spread into the southeast plains after
midnight.  QPF looks pretty light in all models and there are still
some uncertainties with how far north and west this will spread.
Either way though, snow showers will continue across the southern
mountains with another couple inches expected overnight. Meanwhile
suspect that southerly flow impinging on the southern slopes of the
Palmer Divide will lead to another round of low stratus and
potentially fog towards morning across portions of El Paso county,
but models differ with this detail.  Will lean towards the higher
res model solutions. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Recent computer simulations indicate that closed upper low
located over central Utah Thursday morning is expected to weaken
and move across central Colorado into Friday with varying degrees
of upper ridging then projected to develop over southern Colorado
from later Friday into Monday.

Then, next approaching upper storm system moving into Utah by
early next week will be capable of producing unsettled
meteorological conditions(initially favoring western locations)
from later Monday into next Tuesday.

For sensible weather, have depicted the potential for up to an
additional 3 inches of snow over elevations generally above
10Kft(favoring Continental Divide locations and especially the
eastern San Juan mountains) from Thursday into Thursday evening.
Elsewhere, lower elevations will have the potential of
experiencing rain showers, favoring far eastern locations
Thursday(especially during Thursday morning). In addition,
locally gusty winds will also be possible Thursday.

A dry northerly surge is then expected to push across eastern
locations Friday morning with warmer and drier conditions then
anticipated over the CWA from later Friday into Monday, as upper
ridging interacts with varying degrees of eastern Colorado surface
lee-side troughing during this time-frame.

Meteorological focus then shifts to a return of unsettled
meteorological conditions from later Monday into next Tuesday as
next upper system moves into Utah by early next week.

Finally, warmest temperatures during the longer term should be
realized from Friday into Monday with coolest conditions
anticipated Thursday and next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

VFR cigs will overspread all three terminals today with increasing
south to southeast winds this afternoon in the 15-25 kt range. Winds
look a little lighter in KPUB this afternoon but will still range
around 10-15 kts by late afternoon.  Isolated showers will be
possible at KALS at times today, and at KCOS and KPUB after 06z
tonight.  Cigs will generally remain VFR and confidence is not high
that terminals will be directly impacted so will limit mention to
VCSH.  Of greater concern is the potential for IFR stratus to
develop over KCOS after 06z tonight due to southerly upslope flow on
the Palmer Divide. Will introduce this into the 12z TAFs as think
likelihood is fairly good that this will occur.  These may persist
through 18z Thurs at KCOS.  Cigs at KPUB and KALS will likely stay
in the VFR category but could dip to near the MVFR category towards
morning. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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