Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 171056
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 AM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm temperatures with dry conditions expected for one last day
today. A strong cold front will move through the region Sunday
into Sunday night bringing snow showers and much colder
temperatures for the start of next week. The temperatures early
next week will be the coldest of the season with dangerous wind
chills in the Sierra.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

One last day of warm sunny weather today before winter makes its
return Sunday into next week. Main change to the forecast
overnight was to increase QPF in the Sierra. The incoming system
is taking a slightly farther westward track allowing the trough
to dig into California and increasing the upslope flow along the
central Sierra Crest.

Overall this system is still expected to be a low QPF event with
current forecast still only around 0.40" in the Sierra. Very cold
temperatures aloft will push snow ratios into the high range for
the Sierra, as much as 20 to 1 or more, bringing the snow totals
potentially up to 6-8 inches for some areas in the central Sierra.
Most of the rest of the region, including most of the eastern
Sierra in Mono County, can expect accumulations mainly in the
0.5-2" range.

Winds will begin to pick up late Saturday afternoon with the
strongest winds expected Sunday as the strong cold front moves
through the region. Wind advisories have been issued for areas
mainly south of I-80 with wind gusts expected to be 40-50 mph and
up to 65 mph in wind prone areas.

While it has been a long time since we have seen much snow
accumulation in the Sierra, the bigger story may actually be the
cold temperatures expected for the start of the week. Overnight
low temperatures will plummet from relatively mild lows tonight
to downright frigid by Monday night with the coldest temperatures
of this "winter" anticipated. By Tuesday morning, lows are
expected to drop into the teens and single digits for most areas
with colder Sierra valleys dropping below zero. Wind will make
temperatures Tuesday morning feel even colder with some areas
well below zero in the Sierra with wind chill factored in. -Zach

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Cold trough of low pressure settles into the western U.S. next
week with another shortwave dropping down just offshore,
reinforcing the cold air over our area. Temperatures will remain
below normal Tuesday and Wednesday with only slight warming on
Wednesday. Overnight and early morning temperatures will be in the
teens and single digits across most areas both Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings, with a few colder valleys in the Sierra seeing
temperatures dip down below zero. Cold temperatures will be here
to stay through the week and possibly into next weekend.

Another pair of sliders will push down into the Sierra and
western Nevada Wednesday night into Thursday, and then another on
Friday. Both of these sliders will bring potential for light snow
across the area. Temperatures will be plenty cold enough that
snow levels will be at all valley floors. There is still quite a
bit of model variability for the second half of next week,
although the second wave on Friday is looking to be the better
chance of seeing precipitation. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Light winds and VFR conditions expected for today. Winds will
increase late this afternoon and tonight as a strong cold front
approaches the region. By Sunday morning we start to see wind
gusts increasing to near 40kts for some locations. LLWS and
mountain wave turbulence will be likely Sunday, along with a quick
burst of snow Sunday afternoon and potential for brief IFR
conditions and light runway accumulations. -Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday NVZ002>004.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday NVZ001.

CA...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday CAZ072.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday CAZ073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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