Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181922
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
222 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

With the help of some sunshine today, temperatures have risen back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s as of 2 pm although it was fairly
dry with dewpoints in the 30s. Aloft, a closed low system was over
the northern high plains into the four corners region with broad
southwesterly flow from Baja into the Mississippi valley region.
Regional radar was showing showers from Oklahoma back into New
Mexico.

Main focus in the short term will be with rain chances as this
upper level low opens up and energy transitions eastward into the
area tonight into Friday.

In the longer term, we will focus on temperatures this weekend
with another frost/freeze chance.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

For tonight, the upper closed low is expected to open up with
energy transitioning eastward into the area. Moisture will
increase from the top down and we should start to see some rain
overnight tonight. A northern stream system will begin to dive
southeast towards the Great Lakes region behind the main shear
zone on Friday along with a cold front approaching from the north.
This will continue the rain chances through the morning with
clearing from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be held back by the cloud cover and rain with
highs in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

The rain should end over the southeast CWA early in the evening,
with the cold front pushing through later that night. Temperatures
in the 40s Friday night and 60s on Saturday, but the Canadian high
pressure system will move overhead Saturday night, especially over
the eastern Ozarks and will see another Frost/Freeze potential
with lows in the low to mid 30s.

Some additional frost will be possible Sunday night over the
eastern Ozarks with lows in the mid 30s, but the coldest part of
the air mass will have shifted well east. By far the best frost
and freeze chances will be Saturday night. Since we have not had a
hard freeze over the area yet, will still be issuing Frost /
Freeze products, but not with this forecast issuance.


Another cold front is expected on Tuesday with some upper level
energy moving in ahead of a trough Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This will bring the next chance of rain to the area after tonight
into Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Upper level energy and an approaching cold front will bring about
some increased rain chances tonight into Friday across the area.
Clouds should be on the increase this evening, eventually
lowering, but should remain in VFR conditions. Rain should start
mainly after midnight with rain chances through at least most of
the morning. The front will not arrive until after the 18z TAFs
end, so winds should be southeast to south during the time period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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