Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
554 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Scattered storms are developing across southeastern Kansas into
west central Missouri this afternoon. These scattered storms will
continue to develop and slowly sag southeast into this evening.
Instability has increased across the area with generally 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE along and west of Highway 65 and north of Highway
60, with over 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across extreme southeastern
Kansas. An upper level jet is spreading southeast across the
central Plains, and as a result deep layer shear has increased
slightly across the area. There will be a few strong to severe
storms this afternoon and evening mainly along and west of Highway
65. Hail to the size of quarters and damaging straight line winds
will be the main risk. The storm movement will be slow, so
locally heavy rainfall will also occur with the storms.

Storms will develop across Nebraska this evening and form into a
complex and dive southeast overnight. This activity is expected to
spread into portions of the area late tonight into Thursday
morning. There could be training of storms and where this occurs
there will be a flash flood risk. There is also the potential for
a few strong storms too, mainly along and east of Highway 65.
This activity should spread east of the area by Thursday
afternoon. Dry air will spread into the mid levels of the
atmosphere Thursday afternoon and evening and will help prevent
redevelopment of storms Thursday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 90s with heat
index values around 103 to near 110 degrees west of Highway 65
Thursday afternoon/early evening. Clouds from the morning complex
of storms will keep the eastern Ozarks slightly cooler. If the
clouds clear sooner or the complex of storms tracks farther east
temperatures could warm more across the eastern Ozarks. Went
ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for locations west of Highway 65
Thursday afternoon/early evening where there is higher confidence
in the hot and humid conditions occurring.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Storms are expected to develop across the central Plains again
Thursday evening and dive southeast. This activity will be
weakening as they move towards and into the area late Thursday
into early Friday.

An upper level trough and weak surface front will spread through
the area Friday/Friday night. This will bring a drier air mass to
the area this weekend into early next week. Highs will warm into
the upper 80s to middle 90s this weekend into early next week.

A shortwave trough may move through the region during the middle
of next week bringing additional rain chances to the area. Medium
range models differ on the exact timing though.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring over parts of
southwest and south central Missouri as of 22:45Z. Have gone with
some VCTS wording for SGF, although a significant downward trend
has started with the convection northwest of SGF. The SGF site
looks to be the only site potentially affected with the convection
during the evening. Have gone with VFR conditions through the


MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055-066>068-

KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073-097-101.



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