Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 161027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
527 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/
The center of the aforementioned upper-level ridge across the
region will slowly drift just to the west across north Texas. At
the same time high pressure will continue to expand across the
southwestern portions of the US. As a result, the western half of
the region, generally across East Texas, will be under the ridge,
but the remainder of the region will be in northwest flow aloft.
Under the ridge, temperatures will warm into the upper 90s with
drier conditions. The rest of the region will have a chance for
showers/t-storms today and Tuesday, as several shortwave
disturbances will move out of the central plains towards the
region. Diurnal convection will also be possible from any left
over outflow boundaries from previous convection. Despite there
being a chance of precipitation over the the eastern half of the
region today, temperatures and dewpoints will be just high enough
for heat indices to rise between 105-110 degrees. Another Heat
Advisory was issued between noon and 7pm today east of a line from
El Dorado Arkansas to Natchitoches Louisiana. High temperatures
will climb into the mid to upper 90s across the region again on
Tuesday with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night in the mid
to upper 70s. /20/

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/
In the Northwest flow around the Northern periphery of the large
middle/upper level ridge of high pressure centered just West of the
Four Corners Region showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near
and along a cold front that will be near and just North of
Interstate 20 across North Louisiana and Northeast Texas. The cold
front will become nearly stationary during the afternoon then starts
to retreat to the Northeast as a warm front by early Thursday.
The boundary will be a focus to help with development of showers and
thunderstorms and some additional development will be possible from
outflow boundaries from dissipating showers. Convection will
decrease by late Thursday as the warm front lifts away from the area
and the upper ridge of high pressure builds East and Southeast into
the forecast area. Increased subsidence from the strong upper ridge
will generally bring thunderstorm chances to an end.  By Saturday a
short wave trough moving around the ridge aloft will merge with
another Northern stream disturbance amplifying a long wave trough
over the Eastern parts of the country helping drive another back
door cold front toward the forecast area, but this boundary looks to
come up stationary and provide some of the more Northern zones with
a slight chance of thunderstorms. The ridge aloft will be providing
a dry period with daytime high temperatures climbing near the
century mark for most locations. The higher temperatues will reside
over parts of East and Northeast Texas and taper lower across South
Arkansas and North Louisiana. This will also lead to heat index
values over 100 degrees F, most likely over Heat Advisory criteria.
The one factor that may keep heat index values a few degrees lower
will be the strength of vertical mixing each afternoon, which may
bring dry air from aloft down to the surface. /06/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1104 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018/

Scattered convection well north of our airspace should remain to
our north through the overnight hours. Thin cirrus noted on latest
IR Imagery will continue to spread slowly westward through the
overnight hours, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail tonight
through much of the day on Monday. Did add VCTS to the TXK/ELD
terminals as the HRRR is now painting some widely scattered
convection north of the I-20 Corridor late on Monday. Otherwise, a
growing cu field will prevail through the daytime hours on Monday.

Light south winds overnight will become southwest near 10kts or
less for Monday.



SHV  98  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  20
MLU  97  77  95  76 /  20  30  30  30
DEQ  95  75  95  73 /  30  30  30  30
TXK  96  77  97  76 /  20  30  30  30
ELD  95  77  95  75 /  30  30  30  30
TYR  96  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  96  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10


AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for

LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for



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