646
FXUS64 KSHV 132336
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
   possible across the Four State Region today.

 - More in the way of scattered convection on Monday before rain
   chances dwindle as the work week continues.

 - With lower rain chances during the week, temperatures should
   begin to warm with near Heat Advisory criteria possible later
   this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An upper-level trough with embedded closed low across eastern
Oklahoma into Texas to linger through Monday night allowing for
increased instability resulting in periods of mainly diurnally
driven convection today through Monday evening. Locally heavy
rainfall can be expected with some storms today, especially in the
vicinity of the upper-trough across southeast Oklahoma and
northeast Texas. Stronger convection to gradually diminish during
the evening hours with scattered lingering showers and embedded
thunderstorms possibly continuing through the early morning
hours. Overnight lows are forecast to average in the lower 70s.

Similar conditions expected again on Monday as upper-low remains
parked across Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Scattered diurnally
driven afternoon showers expected with conditions again improving
in the evening as the upper-low begins to shift northeast
into Missouri, marking the beginning of an overall pattern shift
across the ArkLaTex. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to range
from the mid 80s across southeast Oklahoma where best rain chances
are expected to the the mid 90s across north Louisiana where
subsidence from an upper-ridge building west will become more
influential.

Upper-ridge to become established across the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing for more typical July hot and dry conditions
areawide. Some locations across the ArkLaTex could expect highs
in the upper 90s by Wednesday afternoon with afternoon heat index
values 105 to 107 degrees across much of north Louisiana.

Models are coming into agreement in bringing an easterly wave
across the northern gulf coast late in the work week allowing for
increased rain chances across mainly portions of Louisiana and
south Arkansas continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Similar to conditions yesterday, ceilings will be mostly VFR with
a line of thunderstorms moving across the region. These storms
will weaken through most of the evening, but could still briefly worsen
conditions as they pass over airports. Surface winds will
generally be light and southerly with lowering ceilings as we get
closer to sunrise tomorrow. MVFR/IFR ceilings should lift back to
VFR ahead of the next round of showers, which I have coming into
the region by 14/18z. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening
across portions of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North
Louisiana for the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall,
which may result in localized flooding. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  93  77  97 /  30  40  10  20
MLU  75  95  75  97 /  20  40  10  20
DEQ  70  87  70  90 /  50  50  20  30
TXK  73  92  74  96 /  40  40  20  20
ELD  72  93  72  95 /  30  50  10  30
TYR  73  90  74  93 /  40  40  10  10
GGG  73  92  74  94 /  40  40  10  10
LFK  73  93  74  95 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57