Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 140732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Water vapor imagery and upper-air analysis this morning shows a
rather complex pattern aloft across the country, with a ridge over
the southwest followed by a low over the central U.S. and another
large low over the northeast. Florida is sandwiched in between a
high over the northwestern Gulf coast and another high over the
western Atlantic, with a weak trough in between. Flow over the
region is a bit ill-defined with all of that going on, but is mainly
northerly. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis is stretched
across the southern part of the peninsula and this will keep a
fairly light southeast/south (southern CWA) to southwest (northern
CWA) flow in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday)...
For today, the ridge aloft over the western Atlantic will build more
over the state as the surface ridge axis lifts northward. A south to
southwest wind flow will be in place through the day, enhanced by
the sea breeze in the afternoon. With this setup, showers and
thunderstorms ongoing across the Gulf and along the coast will
expand while generally shifting inland through the afternoon and
evening. A fairly similar pattern will be in place for Wednesday,
although models are showing some relatively drier air moving over
the southern part of the state, so rain chances for our southern
zones will be less.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Monday)...
High pressure will generally remain aloft over the region into early
next week. The surface ridge axis will remain stretched across the
northern peninsula through Saturday before shifting southward again.
Low-level flow remain fairly light out of the southeast, with the
sea breeze turning winds onshore each afternoon. Relatively dry air
will be over the region for Thursday into the weekend, with slightly
lower rain chances, but then moisture starts to increase again early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few
showers and thunderstorms around the region may briefly impact the
terminals over the next several hours. These will then generally
shift inland through the afternoon and evening. Light and variable
winds this morning will become more southwesterly through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain across the region with light winds and
seas. Winds and seas will be higher near thunderstorms, otherwise no
headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant
visibility issues are anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  77  91  77 /  30  10  30  30
FMY  91  75  93  76 /  50  10  30  20
GIF  91  75  92  75 /  50  40  30  30
SRQ  88  77  89  77 /  30  10  20  20
BKV  89  74  91  74 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  89  78  91  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...05/Carlisle


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