Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 AM MST Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions into next weekend. Daytime
temperatures will trend upward through Tuesday, then above normal
temperatures continuing the rest of the week. Gusty winds at times
should return the second half of the upcoming week.


.DISCUSSION...Various 27/00Z models suggest the upper pattern over
the eastern Pacific/western CONUS through Thursday will generally be
characterized with a trough over the Great Basin to near the West
Coast, and strong high pressure centered over southern Mexico.
Expect dry conditions into Thursday with some cirriform clouds at
times within wly/swly flow aloft.

Generally light surface winds will prevail through Wednesday, then
potentially gusty southwest winds Thursday as a shortwave trough
moves north of the area. Daytime temperatures should warm about 2-4
degrees or so Monday versus today, and another 2-4 degrees or so
Tuesday versus Monday. Only very minor daily temperature changes are
on tap Wednesday into Friday.

The deterministic 27/00Z GFS/ECMWF were in fairly good agreement
with depicting increased heights/thicknesses over this forecast area
next weekend, as high pressure becomes centered over Chihuahua
Mexico or the Big Bend region of Texas. This will likely translate
into 3-6 degrees or so of warming next Saturday versus Friday, and
even potentially hotter daytime temps are possible next Sunday
(which is just beyond the scope of this forecast package). The
upshot is that well above normal daytime temperatures with
associated heat impacts appear to be increasingly likely (at least
at this time) next weekend.


.AVIATION...Valid through 28/12Z.
Clear skies or a few clouds above 20k ft AGL into Monday morning.
Surface wind this afternoon and early evening swly to nwly 8-18 kts
with occasional gusts near 25 kts. Surface wind variable in
direction mainly less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions into next weekend. Expect normal
wind trends early in the week, with gusty winds at times the
latter part of this week.






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