Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 170931
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
231 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Coverage and intensity of storms will decrease today
with most being limited to the higher terrain. The drying trend
continues into the weekend. Temperatures will be trending upward and
nearing 10 degrees above their seasonal normals by Sunday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Saturday.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a few areas of dissipating
cloud cover associated with Thursday night`s convection. Otherwise,
quiet weather conditions across the region early this morning.

A drying southwest flow associated with a shortwave to the north
will begin to work into the Great Basin and western Mojave Desert
today. This will limit thunderstorm coverage across the western
portions of the forecast area. The best storm chances this afternoon
will be over the higher terrain in Clark, Mohave, Lincoln and
eastern San Bernardino counties. With PWATs remaining in the 1"-1.5"
arena and very light steering flow, isolated flash flooding will be
the main threat this afternoon, especially for storms anchored to
terrain. Thunderstorms should peak during the mid to late afternoon
hours and diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

On Saturday, the dry air will push further west and scour out
remaining moisture. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will consolidate
itself over the California and Nevada. Ridging combined with the dry
air mass will eliminate the threat of thunderstorms and increase
temps 3-5 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

High pressure is directly over the area Sunday for a hot day and
suppressed thunderstorm activity. Models forecast stable conditions
area wide with the deeper moisture south of the area. However, with
temperatures expected to be 6-8 degrees above normal and little
change in near surface moisture, expect it to feel sticky. On
Monday, the high pressure center moves to SE Arizona/SW New Mexico,
turning the upper flow to the southeast and allowing moisture to
creep northward into our area. The GFS forecasts 1-1.25 inch pwats
covering much of San Bernardino, Clark and Mohave counties by late
Monday afternoon with moisture primarily in the mid-upper levels of
the atmosphere. The surface moisture is forecast to decrease leading
to less humid conditions even with little change in the temperature
forecast. Moisture continues to increase Monday night with the GFS
bringing a wave north into San Bernardino County which then spreads
north and east during the day Tuesday.

Expect more cloud cover and increasing chances for thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday with embedded weather features passing across
the area. Temperatures are forecast to return to near normal.
&&

.AVIATION....For McCarran...Storm chances diminish today with
storms mainly developing along the higher terrain. Outside of storm
outflow, expect light easterly winds this afternoon. Mostly clear
skies this morning with FEW to SCT clouds aoa 10 kft this afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Storm chances diminish today with storms mainly
developing along the higher terrain. Outside of storm outflow,
expect diurnal wind trends today. Mostly clear skies will give way
to FEW to SCT clouds aoa 10 kft this afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM............Boothe
LONG TERM/AVIATION....Salmen

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