Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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AXHW70 PHFO 072054
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HIC001-003-007-009-082215-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1054 AM HST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DROUGHT WORSENS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND LEEWARD MAUI...

SYNOPSIS...
Continued dryness during January, especially over the leeward
sections of the Big Island, resulted in an expansion of severe
drought, or the D2 category on the U.S. Drought Monitor map. The
severe drought area over the South Kohala District of the Big
Island spread farther upslope into the Waikii area. Moderate
drought, or the D1 category, spread eastward to cover all of the
Kau, Puna, South Hilo, and North Hilo Districts, and northward as
far as Ookala in the Hamakua District.

Severe drought was also designated for the lower leeward slope of
Haleakala from Kihei to Wailea. Moderate drought on Maui was also
spreading into the windward areas but was pushed back into the
lower leeward sections of Haleakala and the West Maui Mountains by
wet windward and central valley conditions in late January.

Elsewhere across the state, moderate drought in leeward Kauai
spread southeastward to Koloa, but reduced in size in leeward Oahu
and Molokai.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
Kauai and Oahu.
No significant changes since the last report. Leeward areas of
both islands had deteriorating vegetation conditions. However, no
significant agricultural impacts have yet been reported.

Maui County.
Pastures conditions are poor over the lower leeward slopes of
Haleakala from Kihei to Wailea. Wet conditions during late
January eased drought in Maui`s central valley from Wailuku to
Maalaea.

Big Island.
Drought impacts have been increasing over the past
several weeks. The majority of the impacts have been to ranching
operations. These include very poor pasture conditions which have
been resulting in reduced cattle growth. Some ranchers have also
been forced to reduce herd sizes. Several ranchers reported having
to haul water for cattle due to water holes drying up, and have
been providing supplemental feed, which increases operating
costs. An aquaculture operation in upper Hilo reported having to
provide aeration for their fish due to inadequate surface water
and spring flows.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), ENSO-
neutral conditions are still present in the Pacific Ocean. The
forecast from CPC continues to favor a transition to an El Nino
state in early 2019. The El Nino is forecast to be a weak event by
a consensus of the main dynamical and statistical models.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
The Long-Lead Hawaiian Islands Outlook issued on January 17 by the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center shows probabilities favoring below normal
rainfall into the spring months as a result of the developing El
Nino event. Probabilities favor above normal temperatures across
the entire state into the summer due to the forecast of above
average sea surface temperatures around the Hawaiian Islands. The
next long-lead outlook will be issued by the Climate Prediction
Center on February 21.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
Data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicated that most of the
monitored streams across the state had near to below normal flow
levels. Based on the precipitation outlook, flow levels are expected
to remain near to below normal through spring 2019.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
The next Drought Information Statement will be issued on March 7,
2019 or sooner if necessary in response to significant changes in
conditions.

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:

U.S. Drought Monitor: droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Hawaii Drought Monitor: dlnr.hawaii.gov/drought
USGS Hawaii - Recent Conditions: hi.water.usgs.gov/recent/index.html
Climate Prediction Center long-lead Hawaii outlook:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxhw40.html
Hawaii Drought Impact Reporter: hawaii.droughtreporter.unl.edu/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
Information for this product was compiled from a number of sources
including the county boards and departments of water supply, U.S.
and State of Hawaii agriculture agencies, the U.S. Geological
Survey, and the media.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
If you have any questions or comments about this drought
information statement, please contact:

Kevin Kodama
National Weather Service
2525 Correa Rd. Suite 250
Honolulu HI  96822
Phone: 808-973-5276
Email: Kevin.kodama@noaa.gov


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