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Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000
UXUS97 KBOU 020115
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1912 MDT Thursday, June 1, 2023
This forecast is for Friday, June 2, 2023:
If the trigger temperature of 65.1 F/18.4 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 639 ft/min (3.2 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13095 ft MSL (7810 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 71.0 F/22.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1200 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9463 ft MSL (4178 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 06/03..... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 24501 ft MSL (19216 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Saturday 06/03........ Poor
Remarks... Scattered afternoon storms
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:32:59 / 20:22:00 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 49 min 1 sec (889 min 1 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:57:30 MDT... 72.45 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/02/2023 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 12291 ft MSL (7006 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12342 ft MSL (7057 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12659 ft MSL (7374 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -0.7
K index......................... +16.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.1 -69.0 190 25 13 4.8 2.6 M M M M M
45000 -49.9 -57.8 200 31 16 0.1 0.0 M M M M M
40000 -49.8 -57.6 190 27 14 -0.1 -0.0 M M M M M
38000 -48.7 -55.7 180 26 13 2.2 1.2 M M M M M
36000 -47.3 -53.1 170 25 13 2.2 1.2 M M M M M
34000 -45.2 -49.4 165 24 12 5.8 3.2 M M M M M
32000 -41.3 -42.3 170 23 12 5.8 3.2 M M M M M
30000 -37.3 -35.1 175 25 13 7.6 4.2 38.8 101.8 12.9 M M
29000 -35.0 -31.0 180 27 14 7.6 4.2 37.9 100.2 12.4 M M
28000 -32.7 -26.9 185 29 15 7.6 4.2 37.1 98.9 12.0 M M
27000 -30.4 -22.7 190 32 16 7.6 4.2 36.4 97.5 11.5 M M
26000 -28.1 -18.6 190 33 17 7.6 4.2 35.5 95.9 11.0 M M
25000 -25.8 -14.4 195 35 18 7.7 4.2 34.7 94.5 10.5 M M
24000 -23.6 -10.5 195 36 19 6.1 3.4 33.9 93.1 10.0 M M
23000 -21.8 -7.2 195 34 18 6.1 3.3 32.5 90.5 8.9 M M
22000 -20.0 -4.0 195 32 17 6.1 3.4 31.2 88.2 7.9 M M
21000 -18.1 -0.6 195 30 15 6.5 3.5 30.0 86.0 6.9 M M
20000 -16.2 2.8 195 26 13 6.4 3.5 28.7 83.7 5.9 M M
19500 -15.3 4.5 195 24 12 6.5 3.5 28.2 82.7 5.5 M M
19000 -14.3 6.3 195 22 12 6.5 3.6 27.6 81.7 5.0 M M
18500 -13.4 7.9 195 21 11 6.3 3.4 27.1 80.8 4.6 M M
18000 -12.4 9.7 195 19 10 6.3 3.4 26.5 79.6 4.0 M M
17500 -11.5 11.3 195 18 9 6.4 3.5 25.9 78.6 3.6 M M
17000 -10.5 13.1 195 17 9 6.8 3.7 25.4 77.6 3.1 M M
16500 -9.5 14.9 195 16 8 6.7 3.7 24.9 76.7 2.7 M M
16000 -7.9 17.8 195 15 8 7.3 4.0 24.2 75.5 2.0 M M
15500 -6.9 19.6 195 15 8 7.4 4.0 23.8 74.8 1.6 M M
15000 -5.8 21.6 195 15 8 7.8 4.3 23.4 74.1 1.3 M M
14500 -4.7 23.5 195 15 8 7.8 4.3 23.1 73.5 0.9 M M
14000 -3.6 25.5 195 15 8 7.8 4.3 22.8 73.0 0.6 M M
13500 -2.5 27.5 195 15 7 7.9 4.3 22.4 72.4 0.2 M M
13000 -1.4 29.5 195 14 7 7.6 4.2 22.1 71.8 -0.1 622 3.2
12500 -0.3 31.5 195 13 7 7.6 4.1 21.8 71.2 -0.5 576 2.9
12000 0.8 33.4 200 13 6 7.4 4.1 21.4 70.5 -0.9 529 2.7
11500 1.8 35.2 200 12 6 7.4 4.1 21.0 69.9 -1.4 482 2.5
11000 2.9 37.2 205 11 6 6.4 3.5 20.6 69.1 -1.8 437 2.2
10500 3.7 38.7 205 10 5 5.1 2.8 20.0 68.1 -2.4 395 2.0
10250 4.2 39.6 205 10 5 9.8 5.4 19.8 67.6 -2.7 375 1.9
10000 5.0 41.0 210 9 4 10.5 5.7 20.0 67.9 -2.5 342 1.7
9750 5.6 42.1 215 8 4 6.1 3.3 19.7 67.5 -2.8 319 1.6
9500 6.1 43.0 215 7 4 7.8 4.3 19.5 67.2 -3.0 296 1.5
9250 6.6 43.9 220 6 3 5.3 2.9 19.3 66.8 -3.2 273 1.4
9000 6.9 44.4 225 6 3 5.5 3.0 18.9 66.0 -3.6 256 1.3
8750 7.5 45.5 235 6 3 8.1 4.5 18.7 65.7 -3.8 232 1.2
8500 8.0 46.4 245 5 3 8.2 4.5 18.6 65.5 -4.0 208 1.1
8250 8.6 47.5 260 5 3 6.6 3.6 18.4 65.2 -4.1 183 0.9
8000 9.0 48.2 270 5 3 5.5 3.0 18.1 64.6 -4.5 163 0.8
7750 9.5 49.1 280 5 3 7.7 4.2 17.9 64.2 -4.7 141 0.7
7500 10.1 50.2 290 6 3 8.6 4.7 17.8 64.0 -4.9 116 0.6
7250 10.7 51.3 295 6 3 6.4 3.5 17.6 63.7 -5.0 91 0.5
7000 11.1 52.0 300 7 4 4.8 2.6 17.3 63.1 -5.4 72 0.4
6750 11.5 52.7 300 7 4 6.6 3.6 17.0 62.5 -5.7 52 0.3
6500 12.0 53.6 305 8 4 5.3 2.9 16.7 62.1 -6.0 31 0.2
6250 12.2 54.0 300 7 4 1.7 0.9 16.2 61.2 -6.5 17 0.1
6000 12.2 54.0 295 7 3 1.3 0.7 15.6 60.1 -7.2 7 0.0
5750 12.3 54.1 290 6 3 1.0 0.6 15.0 59.0 -7.9 M M
5500 12.1 53.8 275 5 3 -5.8 -3.2 14.1 57.4 -8.8 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
06/02/2023 at 0900 MDT | 06/02/2023 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +181.7 LI... -1.3 | CAPE... +310.5 LI... -2.4
CINH... -62.1 K Index... +15.6` | CINH... -6.8 K Index... +21.3`
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.2 -67.4 195 21 11 3.7 2.0 | -54.7 -66.5 180 24 12 4.1 2.3
45000 -50.2 -58.4 205 33 17 0.9 0.5 | -49.3 -56.7 195 30 15 1.3 0.7
40000 -48.9 -56.0 185 31 16 0.8 0.4 | -47.3 -53.1 180 29 15 1.4 0.8
38000 -47.9 -54.2 170 31 16 1.8 1.0 | -47.0 -52.6 170 31 16 0.4 0.2
36000 -46.8 -52.2 160 33 17 1.8 1.0 | -46.8 -52.2 160 33 17 0.4 0.2
34000 -45.1 -49.2 155 34 18 4.3 2.4 | -45.5 -49.9 155 35 18 4.1 2.2
32000 -42.2 -44.0 165 34 17 4.3 2.4 | -43.0 -45.4 155 36 19 4.1 2.2
30000 -38.7 -37.7 175 34 17 7.8 4.3 | -39.5 -39.1 160 34 18 8.2 4.5
29000 -36.3 -33.3 180 34 18 7.8 4.3 | -37.0 -34.6 165 32 16 8.2 4.5
28000 -34.0 -29.2 185 35 18 7.8 4.3 | -34.6 -30.3 170 30 15 8.2 4.5
27000 -31.7 -25.1 185 36 18 7.9 4.3 | -32.1 -25.8 180 28 14 8.0 4.4
26000 -29.3 -20.7 190 37 19 7.8 4.3 | -29.8 -21.6 185 27 14 8.0 4.4
25000 -27.0 -16.6 190 37 19 7.9 4.3 | -27.4 -17.3 185 26 13 8.0 4.4
24000 -24.7 -12.5 195 38 20 7.1 3.9 | -25.1 -13.2 190 25 13 6.7 3.7
23000 -22.5 -8.5 195 37 19 7.0 3.9 | -23.1 -9.6 190 25 13 6.6 3.6
22000 -20.4 -4.7 195 35 18 7.0 3.9 | -21.1 -6.0 185 25 13 6.6 3.6
21000 -18.5 -1.3 195 33 17 5.1 2.8 | -19.1 -2.4 185 25 13 6.2 3.4
20000 -16.9 1.6 195 31 16 5.3 2.9 | -17.3 0.9 185 24 13 6.3 3.4
19500 -16.1 3.0 195 30 15 5.3 2.9 | -16.4 2.5 190 24 12 6.3 3.4
19000 -15.3 4.5 195 28 15 5.3 2.9 | -15.4 4.3 190 24 12 6.2 3.4
18500 -14.5 5.9 195 27 14 5.9 3.3 | -14.5 5.9 190 23 12 6.9 3.8
18000 -13.6 7.5 195 25 13 6.0 3.3 | -13.5 7.7 190 23 12 6.9 3.8
17500 -12.2 10.0 195 23 12 7.6 4.1 | -11.9 10.6 190 22 11 7.5 4.1
17000 -11.1 12.0 195 21 11 7.7 4.2 | -10.8 12.6 190 22 11 7.6 4.2
16500 -10.0 14.0 195 20 10 7.9 4.4 | -9.7 14.5 190 21 11 7.7 4.2
16000 -8.8 16.2 195 20 10 8.3 4.5 | -8.5 16.7 190 21 11 7.9 4.3
15500 -7.5 18.5 190 19 10 8.3 4.5 | -7.4 18.7 185 21 11 8.0 4.4
15000 -6.3 20.7 190 18 9 8.1 4.5 | -6.2 20.8 185 21 11 8.2 4.5
14500 -5.1 22.8 190 18 9 8.2 4.5 | -5.0 23.0 185 21 11 8.2 4.5
14000 -3.9 25.0 190 17 9 8.2 4.5 | -3.7 25.3 185 21 11 8.4 4.6
13500 -2.8 27.0 190 17 9 8.2 4.5 | -2.5 27.5 185 20 10 8.4 4.6
13000 -1.6 29.1 190 16 8 8.4 4.6 | -1.3 29.7 185 19 10 8.4 4.6
12500 -0.3 31.5 190 16 8 8.4 4.6 | -0.0 32.0 185 19 10 8.4 4.6
12000 0.9 33.6 190 15 8 8.3 4.5 | 1.2 34.2 185 18 9 8.5 4.6
11500 2.1 35.8 190 14 7 8.3 4.5 | 2.4 36.3 185 17 9 8.5 4.7
11000 3.3 37.9 190 14 7 7.1 3.9 | 3.6 38.5 185 15 8 7.2 4.0
10500 4.2 39.6 195 13 7 5.9 3.2 | 4.6 40.3 180 13 7 6.0 3.3
10250 4.7 40.5 195 13 7 9.8 5.4 | 5.0 41.0 180 12 6 10.5 5.8
10000 5.5 41.9 195 13 6 10.1 5.6 | 6.0 42.8 175 11 6 11.7 6.4
9750 6.1 43.0 195 12 6 6.4 3.5 | 6.6 43.9 175 10 5 7.9 4.3
9500 6.6 43.9 195 11 6 7.8 4.3 | 7.2 45.0 175 9 5 9.3 5.1
9250 7.1 44.8 200 11 6 5.9 3.3 | 7.8 46.0 170 8 4 7.5 4.1
9000 7.5 45.5 200 10 5 6.0 3.3 | 8.4 47.1 170 8 4 8.6 4.7
8750 8.0 46.4 200 9 5 7.6 4.2 | 9.1 48.4 170 8 4 10.8 5.9
8500 8.5 47.3 205 8 4 7.3 4.0 | 9.9 49.8 170 7 4 10.5 5.8
8250 9.0 48.2 210 7 3 7.0 3.8 | 10.7 51.3 165 7 4 9.6 5.3
8000 9.5 49.1 210 6 3 6.6 3.6 | 11.3 52.3 170 7 4 9.0 4.9
7750 10.0 50.0 220 5 3 6.9 3.8 | 12.0 53.6 165 7 4 10.1 5.6
7500 10.5 50.9 230 4 2 7.0 3.9 | 12.8 55.0 165 6 3 10.3 5.6
7250 11.0 51.8 245 3 2 6.3 3.5 | 13.5 56.3 160 6 3 9.0 5.0
7000 11.4 52.5 250 3 2 5.9 3.2 | 14.2 57.6 165 6 3 8.5 4.7
6750 11.9 53.4 255 3 2 7.9 4.3 | 14.9 58.8 165 6 3 11.3 6.2
6500 12.5 54.5 265 3 1 8.9 4.9 | 15.8 60.4 160 5 3 12.0 6.6
6250 13.1 55.6 265 2 1 8.2 4.5 | 16.6 61.9 160 5 3 10.3 5.7
6000 13.6 56.5 265 2 1 7.7 4.2 | 17.4 63.3 160 5 2 10.0 5.5
5750 14.2 57.6 260 2 1 10.3 5.6 | 18.1 64.6 160 5 2 10.8 5.9
5500 15.2 59.4 285 2 1 18.0 9.9 | 19.1 66.4 155 4 2 19.1 10.5
06/02/2023 at 1500 MDT | 06/02/2023 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +309.9 LI... -2.1 | CAPE... +222.9 LI... -1.6
CINH... -13.9 K Index... +27.1` | CINH... -49.4 K Index... +27.5`
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.0 -67.0 170 19 10 4.5 2.4 | -55.8 -68.4 145 23 12 4.4 2.4
45000 -49.3 -56.7 175 22 11 0.9 0.5 | -50.0 -58.0 150 29 15 1.4 0.8
40000 -47.9 -54.2 170 30 15 0.9 0.5 | -47.9 -54.2 165 32 16 1.4 0.8
38000 -47.3 -53.1 170 29 15 1.0 0.5 | -47.0 -52.6 165 30 15 1.2 0.7
36000 -46.7 -52.1 165 28 14 1.0 0.5 | -46.3 -51.3 160 28 14 1.2 0.7
34000 -45.5 -49.9 165 23 12 3.9 2.1 | -44.9 -48.8 155 22 11 3.6 2.0
32000 -42.9 -45.2 175 11 6 3.9 2.1 | -42.8 -45.0 150 13 7 3.6 2.0
30000 -39.3 -38.7 200 6 3 8.4 4.6 | -39.4 -38.9 140 6 3 8.3 4.5
29000 -36.8 -34.2 200 6 3 8.4 4.6 | -36.9 -34.4 160 3 2 8.3 4.5
28000 -34.3 -29.7 205 6 3 8.4 4.6 | -34.5 -30.1 215 2 1 8.3 4.5
27000 -31.8 -25.2 210 6 3 7.9 4.3 | -32.0 -25.6 250 4 2 8.3 4.6
26000 -29.5 -21.1 205 6 3 7.9 4.4 | -29.5 -21.1 250 5 3 8.3 4.6
25000 -27.1 -16.8 200 7 3 8.0 4.4 | -26.4 -15.5 245 7 3 8.3 4.6
24000 -24.8 -12.6 200 8 4 7.0 3.8 | -24.1 -11.4 240 8 4 6.8 3.7
23000 -22.6 -8.7 200 10 5 7.1 3.9 | -22.1 -7.8 230 9 5 6.9 3.8
22000 -20.5 -4.9 200 13 7 7.1 3.9 | -20.1 -4.2 220 10 5 6.9 3.8
21000 -18.5 -1.3 195 15 8 6.4 3.5 | -18.0 -0.4 210 12 6 6.8 3.7
20000 -16.6 2.1 195 17 9 6.5 3.5 | -16.0 3.2 205 15 8 6.8 3.8
19500 -15.6 3.9 195 18 9 6.5 3.6 | -15.0 5.0 200 16 8 6.9 3.8
19000 -14.7 5.5 195 18 9 6.4 3.5 | -14.0 6.8 200 17 9 6.9 3.8
18500 -13.6 7.5 190 19 10 8.0 4.4 | -13.0 8.6 195 18 9 7.9 4.3
18000 -12.5 9.5 185 18 9 7.9 4.4 | -11.8 10.8 190 17 9 7.8 4.3
17500 -11.3 11.7 185 18 9 7.6 4.2 | -10.7 12.7 185 17 9 7.8 4.3
17000 -10.2 13.6 180 18 9 7.3 4.0 | -9.6 14.7 180 16 8 7.8 4.3
16500 -9.2 15.4 175 19 10 7.3 4.0 | -8.5 16.7 175 16 8 7.8 4.3
16000 -8.2 17.2 170 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -7.3 18.9 175 16 8 7.7 4.2
15500 -7.1 19.2 165 19 10 7.2 3.9 | -6.2 20.8 175 16 8 7.7 4.2
15000 -6.1 21.0 165 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -5.1 22.8 175 16 8 7.8 4.3
14500 -4.4 24.1 155 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -4.0 24.8 180 16 8 7.8 4.3
14000 -3.2 26.2 155 18 9 9.1 5.0 | -2.8 27.0 180 16 8 8.1 4.4
13500 -1.9 28.6 150 16 8 8.9 4.9 | -1.6 29.1 175 15 8 8.2 4.5
13000 -0.5 31.1 150 15 8 9.4 5.1 | -0.4 31.3 175 15 8 8.6 4.7
12500 0.8 33.4 145 13 7 9.4 5.1 | 0.9 33.6 170 14 7 9.0 4.9
12000 2.2 36.0 145 11 6 9.2 5.1 | 2.2 36.0 170 13 7 8.9 4.9
11500 3.6 38.5 145 10 5 9.4 5.1 | 4.1 39.4 175 10 5 8.9 4.9
11000 4.8 40.6 140 8 4 7.1 3.9 | 5.3 41.5 180 9 4 6.4 3.5
10500 5.8 42.4 140 7 4 5.4 3.0 | 6.2 43.2 185 7 4 5.1 2.8
10250 6.3 43.3 145 6 3 12.4 6.8 | 6.7 44.1 190 6 3 11.6 6.3
10000 7.5 45.5 145 5 2 13.8 7.6 | 7.8 46.0 200 5 3 12.5 6.8
9750 8.2 46.8 145 4 2 7.5 4.1 | 8.3 46.9 210 4 2 6.2 3.4
9500 8.8 47.8 150 3 2 10.1 5.5 | 8.9 48.0 225 4 2 9.0 5.0
9250 9.5 49.1 155 3 1 6.1 3.3 | 9.5 49.1 245 4 2 4.1 2.2
9000 9.9 49.8 165 2 1 7.1 3.9 | 9.6 49.3 260 4 2 5.1 2.8
8750 10.6 51.1 185 2 1 11.1 6.1 | 10.3 50.5 275 5 2 10.1 5.6
8500 11.4 52.5 215 1 1 10.9 6.0 | 11.0 51.8 285 6 3 9.4 5.1
8250 12.2 54.0 245 2 1 7.8 4.3 | 11.6 52.9 290 7 4 5.9 3.2
8000 12.6 54.7 255 2 1 6.9 3.8 | 11.9 53.4 290 8 4 5.2 2.8
7750 13.3 55.9 265 3 1 11.0 6.0 | 12.5 54.5 295 10 5 9.9 5.4
7500 14.2 57.6 275 4 2 11.0 6.0 | 13.2 55.8 295 11 5 9.6 5.3
7250 14.9 58.8 280 4 2 8.6 4.7 | 13.9 57.0 295 12 6 7.4 4.0
7000 15.5 59.9 280 5 2 7.6 4.2 | 14.4 57.9 295 12 6 6.8 3.7
6750 16.2 61.2 280 5 3 11.4 6.3 | 15.0 59.0 300 13 7 11.4 6.3
6500 17.1 62.8 285 6 3 11.5 6.3 | 15.9 60.6 300 13 7 11.7 6.4
6250 17.8 64.0 285 6 3 8.8 4.8 | 16.6 61.9 300 13 7 8.7 4.8
6000 18.5 65.3 285 7 3 8.1 4.4 | 17.3 63.1 300 12 6 8.6 4.7
5750 19.1 66.4 285 7 3 12.1 6.6 | 18.0 64.4 300 12 6 12.0 6.6
5500 20.4 68.7 285 6 3 22.3 12.2 | 19.1 66.4 300 11 6 18.7 10.3
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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- Page last modified: May 15th, 2023 16:08 UTC