Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
636
UXUS97 KBOU 080016
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1715 MST Saturday, February 7, 2026
This forecast is for Sunday, February 8, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 55.3 F/12.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 801 ft/min (4.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14933 ft MSL (9640 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 65.0 F/18.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12414 ft MSL (7121 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/09....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 18836 ft MSL (13543 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 02/09.......... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:59:54 / 17:27:25 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 27 min 31 sec (627 min 31 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:13:40 MST... 35.33 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/08/2026 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 9634 ft MSL (4341 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16550 ft MSL (11257 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15672 ft MSL (10379 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.2
K index......................... +6.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.5 -75.1 280 32 16 3.3 1.8 M M M M M
45000 -54.4 -65.9 280 38 20 1.0 0.6 M M M M M
40000 -52.6 -62.7 275 41 21 1.3 0.7 M M M M M
38000 -52.9 -63.2 290 35 18 -2.0 -1.1 M M M M M
36000 -54.1 -65.4 320 32 16 -2.0 -1.1 M M M M M
34000 -54.3 -65.7 345 37 19 7.5 4.1 M M M M M
32000 -49.5 -57.1 345 39 20 7.0 3.9 M M M M M
30000 -45.1 -49.2 350 39 20 8.0 4.4 30.4 86.7 9.0 M M
29000 -42.7 -44.9 350 37 19 8.0 4.4 29.6 85.3 8.6 M M
28000 -40.3 -40.5 355 35 18 8.0 4.4 29.0 84.2 8.2 M M
27000 -37.9 -36.2 355 34 17 8.5 4.7 28.4 83.2 7.9 M M
26000 -35.3 -31.5 355 32 16 8.5 4.7 27.9 82.1 7.5 M M
25000 -32.8 -27.0 350 31 16 8.5 4.7 27.4 81.3 7.3 M M
24000 -30.2 -22.4 350 29 15 8.2 4.5 27.0 80.6 7.0 M M
23000 -27.8 -18.0 345 26 14 8.1 4.5 26.3 79.4 6.5 M M
22000 -25.4 -13.7 340 24 12 8.1 4.5 25.8 78.4 6.2 M M
21000 -22.9 -9.2 340 22 11 7.7 4.2 25.2 77.4 5.7 M M
20000 -20.6 -5.1 340 21 11 7.8 4.3 24.4 76.0 5.1 M M
19500 -19.5 -3.1 340 20 10 7.8 4.3 24.1 75.4 4.9 M M
19000 -18.3 -0.9 340 19 10 7.8 4.3 23.8 74.8 4.6 M M
18500 -17.2 1.0 340 18 9 7.2 3.9 23.4 74.2 4.3 M M
18000 -16.1 3.0 335 18 9 7.1 3.9 23.0 73.3 4.0 M M
17500 -15.1 4.8 330 18 9 6.9 3.8 22.5 72.6 3.6 M M
17000 -14.1 6.6 325 18 9 6.6 3.6 22.0 71.6 3.1 M M
16500 -13.1 8.4 320 17 9 6.6 3.6 21.4 70.6 2.6 M M
16000 -12.0 10.4 310 17 9 4.5 2.5 20.2 68.4 1.5 M M
15500 -11.4 11.5 310 17 9 4.5 2.5 19.4 66.8 0.7 M M
15000 -10.7 12.7 310 15 8 4.6 2.5 18.5 65.3 -0.1 798 4.1
14500 -10.0 14.0 310 13 7 4.7 2.6 17.6 63.8 -0.8 763 3.9
14000 -9.2 15.4 310 11 6 6.0 3.3 16.9 62.5 -1.5 724 3.7
13500 -8.4 16.9 310 9 5 5.8 3.2 16.3 61.3 -2.1 683 3.5
13000 -7.4 18.7 310 8 4 7.6 4.1 15.8 60.4 -2.6 639 3.2
12500 -6.3 20.7 315 6 3 7.4 4.0 15.4 59.7 -3.0 591 3.0
12000 -5.2 22.6 325 5 3 7.8 4.3 15.1 59.1 -3.3 543 2.8
11500 -4.0 24.8 330 4 2 7.8 4.3 14.7 58.5 -3.7 494 2.5
11000 -2.9 26.8 340 4 2 7.6 4.2 14.4 57.9 -4.0 445 2.3
10500 -1.8 28.8 345 3 2 7.8 4.3 14.1 57.3 -4.4 396 2.0
10250 -1.3 29.7 350 3 1 3.9 2.1 13.8 56.9 -4.6 374 1.9
10000 -1.0 30.2 355 3 1 6.0 3.3 13.3 56.0 -5.1 360 1.8
9750 -0.3 31.5 355 3 2 11.6 6.4 13.3 56.0 -5.2 331 1.7
9500 0.5 32.9 355 4 2 10.0 5.5 13.4 56.1 -5.1 299 1.5
9250 1.2 34.2 350 4 2 7.2 4.0 13.3 56.0 -5.2 272 1.4
9000 1.7 35.1 345 4 2 7.1 3.9 13.1 55.6 -5.4 250 1.3
8750 2.3 36.1 340 5 3 11.2 6.2 13.0 55.5 -5.5 222 1.1
8500 3.2 37.8 335 6 3 11.2 6.2 13.2 55.8 -5.3 187 1.0
8250 4.0 39.2 325 7 4 9.1 5.0 13.2 55.8 -5.4 158 0.8
8000 4.7 40.5 320 10 5 9.4 5.2 13.2 55.7 -5.4 130 0.7
7750 5.4 41.7 315 12 6 9.4 5.1 13.2 55.7 -5.4 101 0.5
7500 6.0 42.8 310 14 7 5.4 2.9 13.0 55.4 -5.6 76 0.4
7250 6.2 43.2 305 17 9 2.4 1.3 12.5 54.5 -6.1 63 0.3
7000 6.4 43.5 300 19 10 3.5 1.9 12.0 53.6 -6.7 49 0.3
6750 6.6 43.9 295 22 11 2.4 1.3 11.5 52.7 -7.2 36 0.2
6500 6.7 44.1 290 23 12 2.0 1.1 10.9 51.6 -7.9 26 0.1
6250 6.9 44.4 290 21 11 4.7 2.6 10.4 50.7 -8.4 12 0.1
6000 7.1 44.8 285 19 10 -1.7 -1.0 9.9 49.8 -9.0 M M
5750 6.3 43.3 280 15 8 -18.1 -10.0 8.4 47.1 -10.5 14 0.1
5500 4.5 40.1 260 9 5 -26.9 -14.8 5.9 42.6 -13.0 60 0.3
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
02/08/2026 at 0800 MST | 02/08/2026 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.8
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -3.2 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -8.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.3 -74.7 280 33 17 3.4 1.9 | -59.1 -74.4 280 31 16 3.4 1.8
45000 -54.4 -65.9 285 37 19 -0.6 -0.3 | -54.4 -65.9 275 35 18 -1.2 -0.7
40000 -54.6 -66.3 300 38 19 -0.1 -0.1 | -55.7 -68.3 330 42 22 -0.9 -0.5
38000 -55.0 -67.0 320 36 19 -1.1 -0.6 | -56.3 -69.3 345 41 21 -0.9 -0.5
36000 -55.7 -68.3 350 40 21 -1.1 -0.6 | -56.8 -70.2 355 36 19 -0.9 -0.5
34000 -54.7 -66.5 005 50 26 7.7 4.2 | -55.6 -68.1 005 36 19 8.6 4.7
32000 -50.0 -58.0 005 55 28 7.8 4.3 | -50.3 -58.5 355 44 23 8.7 4.8
30000 -45.1 -49.2 360 53 27 8.7 4.8 | -45.0 -49.0 355 48 25 9.5 5.2
29000 -42.5 -44.5 355 48 25 8.7 4.8 | -42.1 -43.8 350 46 24 9.5 5.2
28000 -39.9 -39.8 345 43 22 8.7 4.8 | -38.6 -37.5 350 44 23 9.5 5.2
27000 -37.3 -35.1 335 40 21 8.8 4.8 | -35.8 -32.4 350 42 22 8.6 4.7
26000 -34.7 -30.5 335 37 19 8.8 4.8 | -33.2 -27.8 345 41 21 8.7 4.8
25000 -32.0 -25.6 335 34 17 8.8 4.8 | -30.7 -23.3 345 40 20 8.7 4.8
24000 -29.5 -21.1 335 31 16 7.7 4.2 | -28.2 -18.8 340 38 20 7.6 4.1
23000 -27.2 -17.0 335 29 15 7.6 4.2 | -25.9 -14.6 340 36 19 7.7 4.2
22000 -24.9 -12.8 330 27 14 7.6 4.2 | -23.6 -10.5 335 34 17 7.7 4.2
21000 -22.6 -8.7 330 24 13 8.2 4.5 | -21.4 -6.5 330 30 15 6.9 3.8
20000 -20.1 -4.2 330 22 11 8.2 4.5 | -19.3 -2.7 315 23 12 7.0 3.9
19500 -18.9 -2.0 330 21 11 8.2 4.5 | -18.2 -0.8 300 21 11 7.1 3.9
19000 -17.6 0.3 330 20 10 8.2 4.5 | -17.1 1.2 290 20 10 7.1 3.9
18500 -16.4 2.5 330 19 10 8.3 4.5 | -15.9 3.4 290 20 10 8.6 4.7
18000 -15.1 4.8 325 17 9 8.3 4.5 | -14.7 5.5 295 20 10 8.5 4.7
17500 -13.9 7.0 325 16 8 7.8 4.3 | -13.5 7.7 305 21 11 7.4 4.1
17000 -12.8 9.0 320 17 9 7.4 4.0 | -12.4 9.7 305 21 11 7.0 3.9
16500 -11.2 11.8 320 17 9 6.2 3.4 | -11.4 11.5 305 21 11 6.7 3.7
16000 -10.4 13.3 320 17 9 5.7 3.1 | -10.5 13.1 310 20 10 5.5 3.0
15500 -9.5 14.9 315 17 9 5.2 2.9 | -9.7 14.5 310 19 10 5.6 3.1
15000 -8.9 16.0 315 17 9 4.3 2.4 | -8.9 16.0 310 18 9 5.4 3.0
14500 -8.3 17.1 310 16 8 4.4 2.4 | -7.7 18.1 315 16 8 5.5 3.0
14000 -7.6 18.3 305 15 8 4.7 2.6 | -6.9 19.6 315 14 7 5.7 3.1
13500 -6.9 19.6 300 13 7 4.6 2.5 | -6.0 21.2 315 13 7 5.7 3.1
13000 -6.1 21.0 295 11 6 6.0 3.3 | -5.2 22.6 315 11 6 6.0 3.3
12500 -5.3 22.5 290 9 4 5.8 3.2 | -4.3 24.3 310 10 5 6.0 3.3
12000 -4.3 24.3 280 7 3 6.8 3.7 | -3.4 25.9 305 8 4 6.4 3.5
11500 -3.4 25.9 270 5 3 6.7 3.7 | -2.5 27.5 290 7 4 6.3 3.5
11000 -2.3 27.9 250 4 2 6.9 3.8 | -1.5 29.3 280 7 3 6.6 3.6
10500 -1.3 29.7 235 4 2 7.0 3.8 | -0.5 31.1 270 7 3 6.2 3.4
10250 -0.9 30.4 225 4 2 2.6 1.4 | -0.2 31.6 265 7 3 1.3 0.7
10000 -0.8 30.6 220 4 2 5.3 2.9 | -0.1 31.8 260 7 3 5.2 2.9
9750 -0.0 32.0 215 5 2 11.8 6.5 | 0.6 33.1 255 6 3 11.4 6.3
9500 0.8 33.4 215 5 2 9.9 5.4 | 1.4 34.5 250 6 3 8.9 4.9
9250 1.4 34.5 215 5 3 7.0 3.8 | 2.0 35.6 250 6 3 7.1 3.9
9000 1.9 35.4 220 5 3 7.0 3.9 | 2.5 36.5 255 6 3 7.9 4.4
8750 2.6 36.7 220 5 3 11.5 6.3 | 3.2 37.8 260 6 3 11.4 6.2
8500 3.5 38.3 230 5 3 10.9 6.0 | 4.1 39.4 265 6 3 10.5 5.8
8250 4.2 39.6 245 5 3 8.2 4.5 | 4.8 40.6 280 7 4 8.6 4.7
8000 4.8 40.6 255 6 3 8.6 4.7 | 5.4 41.7 290 8 4 9.3 5.1
7750 5.5 41.9 270 7 3 10.8 5.9 | 6.1 43.0 300 10 5 8.7 4.8
7500 6.3 43.3 275 8 4 9.0 5.0 | 6.7 44.1 300 11 6 5.5 3.0
7250 6.8 44.2 280 11 6 5.7 3.2 | 6.9 44.4 300 12 6 4.0 2.2
7000 7.3 45.1 285 14 7 7.3 4.0 | 7.2 45.0 295 13 7 4.0 2.2
6750 7.8 46.0 285 16 8 4.5 2.5 | 7.5 45.5 295 15 8 5.3 2.9
6500 7.9 46.2 285 17 9 -2.1 -1.1 | 7.9 46.2 295 14 7 7.3 4.0
6250 7.6 45.7 275 18 10 -2.6 -1.4 | 8.4 47.1 290 12 6 6.7 3.7
6000 7.3 45.1 270 20 10 -7.1 -3.9 | 9.0 48.2 280 10 5 8.2 4.5
5750 6.2 43.2 260 18 9 -19.6 -10.8 | 9.7 49.5 275 9 5 13.5 7.4
5500 4.4 39.9 250 11 6 -24.4 -13.4 | 10.9 51.6 275 8 4 18.3 10.0
02/08/2026 at 1400 MST | 02/08/2026 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +7.6 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -11.2 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -6.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.2 -74.6 280 31 16 3.3 1.8 | -59.3 -74.7 285 31 16 3.8 2.1
45000 -54.7 -66.5 280 36 19 -2.7 -1.5 | -54.1 -65.4 285 36 19 -3.2 -1.7
40000 -57.9 -72.2 320 41 21 -2.1 -1.2 | -58.0 -72.4 300 41 21 -2.4 -1.3
38000 -57.8 -72.0 320 38 20 1.8 1.0 | -57.9 -72.2 305 35 18 1.3 0.7
36000 -56.6 -69.9 310 28 14 1.8 1.0 | -57.2 -71.0 305 27 14 1.3 0.7
34000 -54.1 -65.4 310 25 13 8.0 4.4 | -54.8 -66.6 300 23 12 8.8 4.8
32000 -49.3 -56.7 320 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -49.5 -57.1 300 28 14 8.8 4.8
30000 -44.2 -47.6 330 31 16 9.2 5.1 | -44.2 -47.6 305 32 16 9.3 5.1
29000 -41.4 -42.5 335 30 16 9.2 5.1 | -41.4 -42.5 310 33 17 9.3 5.1
28000 -38.7 -37.7 340 29 15 9.2 5.1 | -38.6 -37.5 310 35 18 9.3 5.1
27000 -35.9 -32.6 345 30 15 9.3 5.1 | -35.3 -31.5 315 35 18 8.5 4.7
26000 -33.1 -27.6 340 32 17 9.3 5.1 | -32.8 -27.0 315 32 16 8.5 4.7
25000 -30.3 -22.5 340 35 18 9.3 5.1 | -30.2 -22.4 320 29 15 8.5 4.7
24000 -27.6 -17.7 340 36 19 8.8 4.8 | -27.6 -17.7 320 27 14 8.9 4.9
23000 -24.9 -12.8 340 35 18 8.9 4.9 | -25.0 -13.0 325 27 14 8.9 4.9
22000 -22.3 -8.1 345 33 17 8.8 4.8 | -22.3 -8.1 325 27 14 8.9 4.9
21000 -19.8 -3.6 340 31 16 7.2 4.0 | -19.7 -3.5 330 25 13 8.7 4.8
20000 -17.7 0.1 335 28 15 7.3 4.0 | -17.1 1.2 330 22 11 8.7 4.8
19500 -16.6 2.1 335 27 14 7.3 4.0 | -15.8 3.6 330 21 11 8.6 4.7
19000 -15.5 4.1 330 26 13 7.4 4.0 | -14.5 5.9 330 19 10 8.1 4.4
18500 -14.4 6.1 330 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -13.5 7.7 330 18 9 5.8 3.2
18000 -12.9 8.8 330 23 12 7.1 3.9 | -12.7 9.1 335 16 8 5.9 3.2
17500 -11.7 10.9 325 23 12 7.9 4.3 | -11.7 10.9 340 15 8 7.3 4.0
17000 -10.6 12.9 320 22 11 7.9 4.3 | -10.6 12.9 335 15 8 7.5 4.1
16500 -9.4 15.1 320 21 11 6.6 3.6 | -9.5 14.9 330 14 7 7.4 4.0
16000 -8.4 16.9 315 21 11 6.3 3.5 | -8.4 16.9 325 14 7 7.1 3.9
15500 -7.5 18.5 315 20 11 5.7 3.1 | -7.4 18.7 325 14 7 7.1 3.9
15000 -6.7 19.9 315 19 10 4.8 2.6 | -6.4 20.5 320 14 7 6.3 3.4
14500 -6.0 21.2 310 17 9 4.7 2.6 | -5.4 22.3 315 14 7 6.5 3.6
14000 -5.3 22.5 310 16 8 4.6 2.5 | -4.3 24.3 305 14 7 4.0 2.2
13500 -4.6 23.7 310 14 7 4.6 2.5 | -3.7 25.3 300 13 7 3.9 2.1
13000 -3.9 25.0 305 12 6 5.0 2.7 | -3.2 26.2 295 13 7 3.0 1.6
12500 -3.2 26.2 300 10 5 4.9 2.7 | -2.8 27.0 290 12 6 3.2 1.7
12000 -2.4 27.7 295 9 4 5.2 2.9 | -2.0 28.4 285 11 6 6.0 3.3
11500 -1.7 28.9 290 7 4 5.1 2.8 | -1.2 29.8 280 10 5 5.9 3.2
11000 -0.8 30.6 285 6 3 6.7 3.7 | -0.1 31.8 280 10 5 8.5 4.6
10500 0.2 32.4 280 6 3 6.7 3.7 | 1.1 34.0 280 10 5 7.6 4.2
10250 0.6 33.1 280 6 3 1.8 1.0 | 1.5 34.7 280 11 6 3.5 1.9
10000 0.7 33.3 280 6 3 5.2 2.9 | 1.8 35.2 280 11 6 7.2 4.0
9750 1.4 34.5 275 6 3 11.7 6.4 | 2.6 36.7 285 13 7 12.6 6.9
9500 2.2 36.0 275 6 3 9.4 5.1 | 3.4 38.1 285 15 8 9.6 5.3
9250 2.8 37.0 275 7 3 7.8 4.3 | 4.0 39.2 290 16 8 6.4 3.5
9000 3.4 38.1 280 7 4 7.6 4.2 | 4.4 39.9 290 17 9 6.5 3.6
8750 4.0 39.2 280 8 4 9.2 5.0 | 5.0 41.0 290 17 9 8.6 4.7
8500 4.7 40.5 285 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 5.6 42.1 290 17 9 7.8 4.3
8250 5.2 41.4 285 8 4 7.7 4.2 | 6.1 43.0 290 15 8 6.6 3.6
8000 5.8 42.4 285 8 4 8.0 4.4 | 6.6 43.9 290 13 7 7.3 4.0
7750 6.4 43.5 285 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 7.2 45.0 285 12 6 9.4 5.1
7500 7.2 45.0 285 7 4 10.5 5.8 | 7.9 46.2 285 11 5 9.7 5.3
7250 7.9 46.2 285 7 4 10.1 5.5 | 8.6 47.5 285 10 5 8.7 4.8
7000 8.7 47.7 285 7 3 10.2 5.6 | 9.3 48.7 285 9 5 9.2 5.1
6750 9.4 48.9 285 7 3 9.8 5.4 | 10.0 50.0 285 8 4 9.8 5.4
6500 10.2 50.4 285 7 3 9.7 5.3 | 10.7 51.3 285 8 4 9.5 5.2
6250 10.9 51.6 285 6 3 9.3 5.1 | 11.4 52.5 285 7 4 8.4 4.6
6000 11.6 52.9 285 6 3 11.1 6.1 | 12.0 53.6 285 7 4 10.6 5.8
5750 12.6 54.7 285 6 3 15.2 8.3 | 12.8 55.0 285 6 3 8.3 4.5
5500 13.8 56.8 285 6 3 16.5 9.1 | 13.1 55.6 285 5 2 -1.2 -0.7
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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