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Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000
UXUS97 KBOU 140012
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1711 MST Wednesday, November 13, 2019
This forecast is for Thursday, November 14, 2019:
If the trigger temperature of 48.4 F/9.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 647 ft/min (3.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13429 ft MSL (8070 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 56.0 F/13.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10625 ft MSL (5266 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 11/15....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 17179 ft MSL (11820 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 39343 ft MSL (33984 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 11/15.......... Poor
Remarks... None
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:43:01 / 16:44:44 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 1 min 43 sec (601 min 43 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:43:52 MST... 31.82 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/14/2019 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 5551 ft MSL (192 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 7257 ft MSL (1898 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11170 ft MSL (5811 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12372 ft MSL (7013 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +9.7
K index......................... -9.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.0 -81.4 315 21 11 1.2 0.6 M M M M M
45000 -61.3 -78.3 320 22 12 0.5 0.3 M M M M M
40000 -60.5 -76.9 325 38 20 0.5 0.3 M M M M M
38000 -57.5 -71.5 325 41 21 7.3 4.0 M M M M M
36000 -52.6 -62.7 330 41 21 7.3 4.0 M M M M M
34000 -48.1 -54.6 335 41 21 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
32000 -43.4 -46.1 335 41 21 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
30000 -38.5 -37.3 335 40 21 8.3 4.6 38.7 101.6 19.1 M M
29000 -36.0 -32.8 340 40 21 8.3 4.6 38.0 100.5 18.8 M M
28000 -33.5 -28.3 340 40 20 8.3 4.6 37.5 99.6 18.7 M M
27000 -31.1 -24.0 340 39 20 7.2 3.9 37.0 98.6 18.5 M M
26000 -29.0 -20.2 340 39 20 7.2 4.0 35.9 96.6 17.8 M M
25000 -26.8 -16.2 340 38 20 7.2 4.0 35.0 94.9 17.3 M M
24000 -24.6 -12.3 340 37 19 6.5 3.6 34.1 93.5 16.8 M M
23000 -22.9 -9.2 340 36 19 5.8 3.2 32.6 90.6 15.7 M M
22000 -21.2 -6.2 340 35 18 5.8 3.2 31.1 88.0 14.7 M M
21000 -19.4 -2.9 335 33 17 6.0 3.3 29.8 85.6 13.8 M M
20000 -17.2 1.0 335 30 15 6.0 3.3 28.1 82.5 12.5 M M
19500 -16.2 2.8 335 29 15 6.0 3.3 27.4 81.4 12.0 M M
19000 -15.3 4.5 340 27 14 6.5 3.5 26.8 80.3 11.6 M M
18500 -14.7 5.5 335 26 13 2.1 1.2 25.9 78.6 10.8 M M
18000 -14.3 6.3 335 24 13 2.5 1.4 24.6 76.3 9.8 M M
17500 -13.9 7.0 335 23 12 2.0 1.1 23.4 74.1 8.8 M M
17000 -13.7 7.3 335 22 11 1.7 0.9 22.0 71.6 7.6 M M
16500 -13.5 7.7 330 20 10 1.7 0.9 20.6 69.1 6.4 M M
16000 -13.2 8.2 330 19 10 2.4 1.3 19.3 66.8 5.3 M M
15500 -12.8 9.0 325 18 9 2.4 1.3 18.1 64.6 4.2 M M
15000 -12.5 9.5 325 17 9 2.8 1.5 16.9 62.4 3.1 M M
14500 -12.1 10.2 325 15 8 2.8 1.5 15.7 60.3 2.1 M M
14000 -11.6 11.1 325 14 7 3.7 2.0 14.6 58.3 1.0 M M
13500 -11.1 12.0 320 12 6 3.9 2.1 13.7 56.6 0.1 M M
13000 -10.5 13.1 320 11 6 5.3 2.9 12.8 55.0 -0.8 618 3.1
12500 -9.7 14.5 320 10 5 5.7 3.1 12.1 53.8 -1.4 578 2.9
12000 -8.8 16.2 325 9 4 7.0 3.8 11.5 52.8 -2.0 538 2.7
11500 -7.7 18.1 325 8 4 7.4 4.1 11.2 52.1 -2.4 490 2.5
11000 -6.6 20.1 325 7 4 8.0 4.4 10.8 51.5 -2.8 442 2.2
10500 -5.4 22.3 330 7 3 8.6 4.7 10.6 51.0 -3.1 391 2.0
10250 -4.8 23.4 330 7 3 6.7 3.7 10.4 50.8 -3.2 366 1.9
10000 -4.4 24.1 330 6 3 5.3 2.9 10.1 50.2 -3.5 347 1.8
9750 -4.0 24.8 330 6 3 7.4 4.1 9.8 49.7 -3.8 325 1.7
9500 -3.4 25.9 330 6 3 9.0 4.9 9.7 49.5 -3.9 300 1.5
9250 -2.8 27.0 330 6 3 6.2 3.4 9.6 49.3 -4.1 275 1.4
9000 -2.5 27.5 325 5 3 3.4 1.9 9.2 48.5 -4.5 258 1.3
8750 -2.1 28.2 325 5 2 5.3 2.9 8.7 47.7 -5.0 242 1.2
8500 -1.7 28.9 320 4 2 6.0 3.3 8.4 47.2 -5.3 222 1.1
8250 -1.3 29.7 315 3 2 4.7 2.6 8.1 46.6 -5.6 203 1.0
8000 -1.0 30.2 310 3 1 4.1 2.3 7.7 45.8 -6.1 186 0.9
7750 -0.7 30.7 305 2 1 4.4 2.4 7.2 45.0 -6.5 169 0.9
7500 -0.4 31.3 290 2 1 4.4 2.4 6.8 44.3 -6.9 152 0.8
7250 -0.1 31.8 280 2 1 4.2 2.3 6.4 43.5 -7.4 136 0.7
7000 0.2 32.4 260 1 1 4.3 2.3 6.0 42.8 -7.8 119 0.6
6750 0.5 32.9 240 1 1 4.1 2.2 5.6 42.0 -8.3 102 0.5
6500 0.8 33.4 225 1 1 3.7 2.0 5.1 41.2 -8.7 87 0.4
6250 1.1 34.0 210 1 0 3.8 2.1 4.7 40.4 -9.2 71 0.4
6000 1.3 34.3 185 1 0 3.1 1.7 4.2 39.6 -9.7 56 0.3
5750 1.3 34.3 180 1 0 -6.9 -3.8 3.4 38.2 -10.5 50 0.3
5500 0.2 32.4 180 1 0 -20.6 -11.3 1.6 34.9 -12.4 75 0.4
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/14/2019 at 0800 MST | 11/14/2019 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +11.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.5
CINH... -0.1 K Index... -26.2 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... -31.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.3 -83.7 320 21 11 0.7 0.4 | -64.1 -83.4 315 17 9 0.5 0.3
45000 -63.2 -81.8 325 24 12 1.3 0.7 | -63.3 -81.9 315 19 10 1.1 0.6
40000 -61.4 -78.5 325 30 16 1.3 0.7 | -61.6 -78.9 315 23 12 1.0 0.5
38000 -57.5 -71.5 325 31 16 7.4 4.1 | -58.0 -72.4 315 23 12 7.5 4.1
36000 -53.1 -63.6 330 31 16 7.4 4.1 | -53.5 -64.3 315 23 12 7.5 4.1
34000 -48.4 -55.1 335 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -48.7 -55.7 320 22 11 8.4 4.6
32000 -43.4 -46.1 335 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -43.7 -46.7 325 22 11 8.4 4.6
30000 -38.6 -37.5 335 30 15 7.7 4.2 | -38.3 -36.9 330 21 11 7.7 4.2
29000 -36.3 -33.3 340 29 15 7.7 4.2 | -36.0 -32.8 335 21 11 7.7 4.2
28000 -34.0 -29.2 340 29 15 7.7 4.2 | -33.7 -28.7 335 20 10 7.7 4.2
27000 -31.7 -25.1 340 28 14 8.5 4.7 | -31.4 -24.5 335 20 10 7.9 4.3
26000 -29.1 -20.4 340 27 14 8.5 4.6 | -29.0 -20.2 335 19 10 7.9 4.3
25000 -26.6 -15.9 345 26 14 8.5 4.6 | -26.7 -16.1 340 18 9 7.9 4.3
24000 -24.1 -11.4 345 26 13 7.3 4.0 | -24.3 -11.7 340 18 9 7.9 4.3
23000 -22.0 -7.6 345 25 13 7.0 3.8 | -21.9 -7.4 340 18 9 7.9 4.3
22000 -19.9 -3.8 345 25 13 7.0 3.8 | -19.6 -3.3 340 17 9 7.9 4.3
21000 -17.9 -0.2 345 24 12 5.0 2.8 | -17.3 0.9 345 17 9 6.8 3.7
20000 -15.9 3.4 345 23 12 5.2 2.9 | -15.3 4.5 345 17 9 6.8 3.7
19500 -15.2 4.6 345 22 11 5.2 2.9 | -14.3 6.3 345 17 9 6.8 3.7
19000 -14.4 6.1 345 21 11 5.2 2.9 | -13.3 8.1 345 17 9 7.0 3.8
18500 -13.6 7.5 345 20 10 5.2 2.9 | -12.4 9.7 345 17 9 5.0 2.8
18000 -12.8 9.0 345 19 10 5.2 2.9 | -11.6 11.1 345 16 8 5.2 2.8
17500 -12.0 10.4 345 18 9 4.8 2.6 | -10.5 13.1 340 15 8 4.4 2.4
17000 -11.3 11.7 345 17 9 4.6 2.6 | -9.8 14.4 340 14 7 4.5 2.5
16500 -10.6 12.9 345 16 8 4.1 2.2 | -9.1 15.6 340 13 7 4.2 2.3
16000 -10.2 13.6 340 16 8 2.7 1.5 | -8.5 16.7 340 12 6 4.0 2.2
15500 -9.8 14.4 340 15 8 2.7 1.5 | -7.9 17.8 335 11 6 3.7 2.0
15000 -9.5 14.9 340 14 7 1.7 0.9 | -7.5 18.5 335 10 5 2.6 1.4
14500 -9.2 15.4 335 13 7 1.8 1.0 | -7.1 19.2 335 10 5 2.6 1.5
14000 -9.0 15.8 335 12 6 2.0 1.1 | -6.7 19.9 330 9 5 2.2 1.2
13500 -8.7 16.3 330 11 6 2.0 1.1 | -6.4 20.5 330 8 4 2.2 1.2
13000 -8.4 16.9 330 10 5 2.6 1.4 | -6.1 21.0 325 8 4 2.7 1.5
12500 -8.0 17.6 325 9 5 2.7 1.5 | -5.7 21.7 320 7 4 2.6 1.4
12000 -7.6 18.3 320 8 4 3.9 2.2 | -5.2 22.6 310 6 3 3.8 2.1
11500 -7.0 19.4 320 6 3 4.1 2.3 | -4.7 23.5 305 6 3 3.9 2.1
11000 -6.3 20.7 320 5 3 6.0 3.3 | -4.1 24.6 290 5 3 4.2 2.3
10500 -5.4 22.3 325 5 2 6.5 3.5 | -3.6 25.5 280 5 2 4.6 2.5
10250 -5.0 23.0 330 4 2 5.3 2.9 | -3.3 26.1 270 5 2 2.8 1.5
10000 -4.6 23.7 330 4 2 5.6 3.1 | -3.1 26.4 270 4 2 3.7 2.0
9750 -4.1 24.6 335 4 2 8.5 4.7 | -2.7 27.1 260 4 2 6.9 3.8
9500 -3.4 25.9 340 4 2 9.5 5.2 | -2.2 28.0 250 3 2 6.7 3.7
9250 -2.8 27.0 345 4 2 7.4 4.0 | -1.8 28.8 240 3 2 5.4 3.0
9000 -2.3 27.9 345 3 2 5.7 3.2 | -1.4 29.5 230 3 1 5.1 2.8
8750 -1.8 28.8 345 3 2 8.6 4.7 | -0.9 30.4 220 2 1 8.0 4.4
8500 -1.1 30.0 345 3 1 9.4 5.1 | -0.3 31.5 205 2 1 8.3 4.6
8250 -0.5 31.1 340 2 1 7.1 3.9 | 0.2 32.4 190 2 1 6.7 3.7
8000 -0.1 31.8 330 2 1 6.3 3.5 | 0.7 33.3 180 2 1 6.3 3.4
7750 0.4 32.7 320 2 1 7.1 3.9 | 1.2 34.2 175 2 1 8.9 4.9
7500 0.9 33.6 295 2 1 5.2 2.8 | 1.9 35.4 170 2 1 8.5 4.7
7250 1.2 34.2 290 2 1 3.2 1.7 | 2.4 36.3 170 2 1 6.5 3.5
7000 1.4 34.5 280 2 1 3.9 2.2 | 2.9 37.2 170 2 1 6.2 3.4
6750 1.7 35.1 270 2 1 2.9 1.6 | 3.4 38.1 170 2 1 9.4 5.1
6500 1.8 35.2 260 2 1 1.0 0.5 | 4.2 39.6 170 2 1 10.3 5.7
6250 1.9 35.4 255 2 1 1.3 0.7 | 4.8 40.6 170 2 1 8.1 4.4
6000 1.9 35.4 250 2 1 -1.1 -0.6 | 5.4 41.7 170 2 1 7.5 4.1
5750 1.5 34.7 245 2 1 -9.1 -5.0 | 6.0 42.8 170 2 1 10.9 6.0
5500 0.6 33.1 225 1 1 -14.5 -7.9 | 7.2 45.0 170 2 1 21.0 11.5
11/14/2019 at 1400 MST | 11/14/2019 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +11.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +9.8
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -35.8 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... -23.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.4 -83.9 300 15 8 0.7 0.4 | -64.4 -83.9 295 15 8 1.3 0.7
45000 -63.2 -81.8 300 18 9 1.2 0.7 | -62.3 -80.1 295 17 9 0.6 0.3
40000 -61.4 -78.5 300 21 11 1.2 0.6 | -61.4 -78.5 290 18 9 0.6 0.3
38000 -58.0 -72.4 300 21 11 7.0 3.8 | -58.2 -72.8 295 18 9 6.9 3.8
36000 -53.8 -64.8 300 20 10 7.0 3.8 | -54.0 -65.2 295 18 9 6.9 3.8
34000 -49.3 -56.7 305 19 10 8.3 4.5 | -49.5 -57.1 300 17 9 8.2 4.5
32000 -44.3 -47.7 305 17 9 8.3 4.5 | -44.0 -47.2 300 16 8 8.2 4.5
30000 -38.8 -37.8 315 16 8 8.0 4.4 | -39.1 -38.4 300 16 8 8.3 4.6
29000 -36.4 -33.5 315 15 8 8.0 4.4 | -36.6 -33.9 300 15 8 8.3 4.6
28000 -34.0 -29.2 320 15 8 8.0 4.4 | -34.1 -29.4 300 15 8 8.3 4.6
27000 -31.6 -24.9 320 15 8 8.1 4.5 | -31.7 -25.1 300 14 7 7.9 4.3
26000 -29.2 -20.6 320 15 8 8.1 4.5 | -29.4 -20.9 300 14 7 7.9 4.3
25000 -26.8 -16.2 320 15 8 8.1 4.5 | -27.0 -16.6 300 14 7 7.9 4.3
24000 -24.4 -11.9 320 15 8 7.7 4.2 | -24.7 -12.5 300 13 7 7.8 4.3
23000 -22.0 -7.6 320 15 8 7.7 4.2 | -22.3 -8.1 300 13 6 7.8 4.3
22000 -19.7 -3.5 320 15 8 7.7 4.2 | -20.0 -4.0 300 12 6 7.8 4.3
21000 -17.4 0.7 325 14 7 7.9 4.3 | -17.5 0.5 305 12 6 8.4 4.6
20000 -15.1 4.8 330 13 7 7.9 4.3 | -15.0 5.0 305 11 6 8.4 4.6
19500 -13.9 7.0 330 13 7 7.9 4.3 | -13.1 8.4 305 11 6 8.4 4.6
19000 -12.7 9.1 330 12 6 8.0 4.4 | -11.8 10.8 305 11 5 7.9 4.4
18500 -11.6 11.1 335 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -10.7 12.7 305 10 5 7.6 4.2
18000 -10.0 14.0 330 11 6 7.1 3.9 | -9.5 14.9 305 10 5 7.6 4.2
17500 -9.0 15.8 330 11 5 6.1 3.3 | -8.5 16.7 305 10 5 6.3 3.5
17000 -8.1 17.4 330 10 5 6.2 3.4 | -7.5 18.5 310 10 5 6.4 3.5
16500 -7.2 19.0 325 10 5 5.4 3.0 | -6.6 20.1 310 10 5 5.5 3.0
16000 -6.4 20.5 325 10 5 4.9 2.7 | -5.8 21.6 310 10 5 5.0 2.8
15500 -5.7 21.7 320 9 5 4.5 2.5 | -5.1 22.8 310 10 5 4.7 2.6
15000 -5.2 22.6 315 9 5 2.8 1.5 | -4.5 23.9 310 10 5 3.8 2.1
14500 -4.8 23.4 310 9 4 2.9 1.6 | -3.9 25.0 310 10 5 3.9 2.1
14000 -4.4 24.1 310 8 4 2.1 1.2 | -3.4 25.9 310 11 5 3.9 2.1
13500 -4.1 24.6 305 8 4 2.1 1.2 | -2.8 27.0 305 11 5 3.8 2.1
13000 -3.7 25.3 300 8 4 3.4 1.8 | -2.1 28.2 305 11 5 5.1 2.8
12500 -3.2 26.2 295 8 4 3.3 1.8 | -1.4 29.5 305 11 5 5.1 2.8
12000 -2.7 27.1 290 8 4 4.6 2.5 | -0.7 30.7 300 10 5 4.8 2.6
11500 -2.0 28.4 285 8 4 4.7 2.6 | -0.0 32.0 295 10 5 4.9 2.7
11000 -1.3 29.7 280 8 4 5.2 2.9 | 0.6 33.1 290 10 5 4.0 2.2
10500 -0.6 30.9 275 7 4 5.8 3.2 | 1.2 34.2 280 9 5 4.4 2.4
10250 -0.2 31.6 270 7 4 3.8 2.1 | 1.5 34.7 275 8 4 2.8 1.5
10000 -0.0 32.0 270 7 3 3.5 1.9 | 1.6 34.9 270 8 4 3.5 1.9
9750 0.3 32.5 260 6 3 5.2 2.8 | 2.0 35.6 265 7 4 5.4 3.0
9500 0.7 33.3 250 5 3 5.2 2.8 | 2.3 36.1 260 6 3 5.6 3.1
9250 1.0 33.8 240 5 3 3.5 1.9 | 2.7 36.9 250 6 3 3.1 1.7
9000 1.2 34.2 225 5 2 2.9 1.6 | 2.8 37.0 240 5 3 2.4 1.3
8750 1.5 34.7 210 4 2 5.6 3.1 | 3.1 37.6 235 4 2 5.9 3.2
8500 1.9 35.4 190 4 2 6.2 3.4 | 3.5 38.3 220 4 2 6.5 3.6
8250 2.4 36.3 175 4 2 6.7 3.7 | 4.0 39.2 210 3 2 6.7 3.7
8000 2.9 37.2 170 4 2 7.2 3.9 | 4.5 40.1 200 3 2 7.0 3.9
7750 3.4 38.1 160 4 2 7.5 4.1 | 5.0 41.0 190 3 1 6.1 3.4
7500 4.0 39.2 155 4 2 9.0 4.9 | 5.4 41.7 180 3 1 6.6 3.6
7250 4.7 40.5 155 4 2 10.1 5.5 | 6.0 42.8 175 3 2 7.8 4.3
7000 5.4 41.7 150 4 2 10.1 5.6 | 6.6 43.9 170 3 2 8.4 4.6
6750 6.2 43.2 150 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 7.1 44.8 170 3 2 5.0 2.7
6500 6.9 44.4 150 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 7.4 45.3 165 4 2 4.8 2.6
6250 7.6 45.7 150 4 2 10.4 5.7 | 7.9 46.2 160 3 2 7.3 4.0
6000 8.4 47.1 150 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 8.4 47.1 155 3 2 7.9 4.3
5750 9.2 48.6 145 4 2 11.8 6.5 | 8.9 48.0 150 3 2 3.0 1.7
5500 10.2 50.4 145 3 2 17.2 9.4 | 8.6 47.5 140 3 1 -9.6 -5.3
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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- Page last modified: Apr 16th, 2019 21:10 UTC