-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
365
FXUS61 KBOX 151743
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through today as maritime high pressure`s
influence prevails through the start of the week. Temperatures
remain slightly cooler Monday as a result. A warming trend kicks off
midweek that is expected to peak Thursday. Mostly dry conditions are
expected for much of the week until Thursday when thunderstorms
become possible ahead of a cold front. Seasonably warm temperatures
move in heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry through today with mostly cloudy skies

Lingering showers over the southern waters from earlier this morning
are expected to continue to dissipate. The influence of a maritime
high pressure continues over southern New England today. Light east
to ENE winds prevail, keeping the eastern coastlines cooler than the
rest of the region as well. Cloudy skies continue as well, and highs
will remain in the low 70s towards the interior and upper 60s across
the rest of the region; spots along the east coast could dip into
the low 60s, especially over the Cape and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, cool overnight

* Slightly warmer for Monday

A weak shortwave will pass over the region Sunday night, but rain
chances are expected to remain to our south. Generally, another
dry night expected for southern New England. The maritime
high`s influence continues, keeping winds light and generally
east to ESE over the region overnight. Lows expected to be cool
once again, primarily sitting in the low to mid 50s. Some patchy
fog may also develop in some parts of eastern MA into northern
RI.

Highs begin to recover a bit Monday, but the cooler airmass aloft
will keep temperatures still a bit lower than normal for mid June.
Deterministic guidance has 925 mb temperatures slightly increasing
to around 15C, especially over the interior. Continued easterly
winds will keep the eastern coastal areas cooler again, but highs
may still reach the upper 60s/low 70s. Mid to upper 70s can be
expected for the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Warming trend kicks in midweek, peaking Thursday

* Mostly dry through much of the week aside from Thursday, which
  could see thunderstorms. Some could possibly turn severe.

* Less humid to end the week following cold frontal passage

Details...

Quiet night expected for Monday heading into Tuesday, with winds
shifting more SE Tuesday. WNW flow aloft will begin to shift more SW
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, which will aid in kick-starting the
midweek warming trend. Timing is still slightly uncertain, but
another wave looks to pass over the region sometime between Tuesday
night and Wednesday that may bring some stray showers over western
MA and CT. Chances still remain low and there is still variance
between the guidance in the wave`s track, but some measurable
rain cannot be completely ruled out at this time.

The main threat for rain and thunderstorms comes Thursday ahead of a
cold front expected to pass Thursday night into Friday. Continued SW
flow will keep the region much warmer with highs approaching (and
possibly exceeding) 90F in parts of southern New England. Ensembles
have mean PWAT values ranging from 1.60" to 1.70" across the region
heading into Thursday, and dew points are expected to be in the
upper 60s to low 70s in the afternoon hours. With this environment,
significant CAPE values are favored; the ECMWF ENS already has
MUCAPE values well over 1000 J/kg for Thursday afternoon, and the
other ensembles also have mean surface CAPE values approaching 1000
J/kg. Will be something to continue to monitor as Thursday gets
closer.

Following the cold front`s passage Thursday night, drier, less humid
conditions make a return as dew points drop into the low 60s for
Friday. Seasonably warm temperatures with breezier conditions move
in heading into the weekend with the post-frontal airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Tonight...Moderate Confidence in timing.

VFR dropping to IFR this evening, except remaining VFR at BDL
and BAF. Vsby reductions likely across eastern MA terminals
around 04z. Light ESE winds. Otherwise dry conditions expected.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

IFR improving to VFR through the morning. Light ENE winds
veering ESE.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

VFR. Light SSE winds becoming E along the South Coast, Cape and
Islands.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in IFR timing.

Lower confidence in timing for vsby reductions tonight.
Otherwise, high confidence for rest of TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday...

Seas continue to trend down to 2-4 ft with ENE winds at or below
15 kts. These calmer seas are expected to continue through
Monday. Winds remain below 10 kts over the eastern waters.
Winds pick back up during the day Monday with sustained winds up
to 15 kts possible once more.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...Hrencecin