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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall ending across Central America and S Mexico...

The Central American Gyre, which was responsible for heavy rain
across southern Mexico and Central America the past several
days, will break down today. A return to a more climatogical
monsoon trough pattern and associated rainfall regime across
Central America and southern Mexico is expected the next few
days. Tropical Storm Cristobal, moving north in the central Gulf
of Mexico, will produce heavy rainfall in bands rotating around
the outer periphery of the storm. This rainfall can cause flash
floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather
office for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N93W to 12N100W to 10N112W to
09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 07N127W to 08N135W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N
to 16N between 88W and 102W. Scattered moderate is within 60 nm
of the monsoon trough between 103W and 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the
Central American Gyre.

Building high pressure across the forecast area will increase
winds and seas west of Baja California through Mon. NW winds may
become strong E of 120W and build seas to 12 ft on Mon.

A scatterometer pass at 0516 UTC showed very strong 25-35 kt SW
winds N of 30N in the Gulf of California. These winds allowed
seas to build to 9 ft in the northern Gulf overnight. Winds and
seas will diminish in the northern Gulf of California today as
the pressure gradient across the area relaxes.

Large, long-period SW swell will impact southern Mexico today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the
Central American Gyre.

Large, long-period SW swell propagating across the region will
subside through Mon, then increase Tue and Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extends from 30N135W to 12N110W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ
to the south is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades across
the area. South of the monsoon trough and east of 100W, SW winds
are generally moderate to fresh. Monsoonal SW winds will relax
beginning today, while the trades will change little through Wed.

Large, long-period SW swell propagating across the region east
of 120W will subside through Mon, then increase Tue and Wed.

$$
Mundell