Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161221 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
721 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...SPC brings the MRGL severe weather outlook for
today and tonight down into NE Kenedy County and out over much of
the lower TX Gulf waters. Several of the convective models such
as the HRRR want to push a convective complex out of northeast TX
down south along the TX coastline possibly moving into the lower
TX Gulf waters late tonight into Mon morning. Will monitor the
latest conv outlooks/statements from SPC to see how this weather
situation develops later today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...KBRO radar is showing a few spotty marine showers
moving up from the south towards the RGV. Will include a mention
of VCSH for both BRO and HRL for early this morning. Otherwise,
expect general VFR conditions to prevail for the upcoming 24 hours
as the atms over the region remains pretty dry at most levels.
Will be maintaining some 20% pops along the lower TX coastline
throughout today and tonight. But overall confidence is not high
enough to mention conv in the current TAF package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A 500 mb short wave over the south
central Plains states will continue moving east today pushing into
the lower Miss River Valley by Mon Night. This will allow 500 MB
ridging to build back over the RGV on Mon. Some marginal moisture
levels will linger near the lower TX coastline as this 500 mb trough
sweeps eastwards. As the 500 mb ridging builds in over the area, the
better moisture values will shift eastwards away from the region
allowing for the isold/chc pops to diminish near the coastline.

As the ridging builds back over the area expect temps to edge up a
couple of degrees for highs on Mon as the 1000-500 mb thicknesses
increase. The latest NAM/GFS and ECMWF temp guidance through Mon is
in relatively good agreement for the region. So will stick pretty
close to a blend of these numbers through Mon for maxes and mins.

The PGF will start off pretty decent this morning due to the
interaction of the surface ridging over the Gulf of Mex and troffing
inland over TX and NE Mex. This PGF will then start to weaken later
today and will continue slackening throughout tonight into Mon.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): Hot and humid conditions
will prevail each afternoon through the period as a 500 mb ridge
builds over northern Mexico. Surface high pressure across much of
the Gulf of Mexico will result in onshore breezes and some limited
moisture moving up from the south. A slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms will be possible across the Gulf waters Monday night
into Tuesday due to ample moisture and an exiting 500 mb
shortwave. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected across
deep south Texas through late next week. Winds will strengthen
a bit Wednesday through Saturday as a series of surface low
pressure systems develop and move across the Plains, producing
a tighter gradient. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible
across the area by late in the week. Heat index values will
range from 106 to 111 degrees each afternoon. Heat Advisories may
be needed in some areas by mid to late week.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Winds and seas at Buoy020 are still in
SCA criteria this morning while surface obs near the Laguna Madre
are in SCEC territory this morning. Since the PGF will likely be
weakening slowly today, expect the Gulf conditions to gradually
improve later this morning and this afternoon. However, will need to
extend the SCA for the Gulf waters through the mid to late morning
hours for some lingering strong SE winds and elevated Gulf swells.
Otherwise, expect some SCEC conditions to persist throughout tonight
into Monday as a moderate SE low level flow continues.

Monday Night through Thursday night...Moderate to strong southeast
to south winds and moderate seas will prevail through the period.
Small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft
advisory conditions will be possible on Monday and then again
Wednesday night through Thursday night as the gradient
strengthens.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation/Upper Air...60
Long Term...63
Graphicast...62


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