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000
FXUS64 KBRO 151934
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
234 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Very weak mid/upper
level inverted trough over deep south Texas to slowly migrate
westward out of the forecast area overnight tonight with the
mid/upper flow become southeast Monday then east Monday night. Net
result of the changes aloft will be to maintain hot and humid, but
precipitation-free, conditions through the period with some
scattered cloud cover over the coastal counties during the late
morning through evening hours. High temperatures Monday afternoon
will range from the lower/mid 90s at the coast with 102-106 over
Zapata and western Starr Counties. Heat indices to remain below
advisory criteria area-wide and will generally range from 103 to
108.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500mb ridge centered across
Texas Tuesday will merge with the subtropical ridge across the
southwest United States Wednesday and prevail across the state
Thursday through Saturday. Low to mid level moisture will remain
limited across south Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico through
the rest of the week into the weekend. Not much in the way of rain
chances if any are expected through the forecast period.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal Tuesday through
Sunday with temperatures likely reaching 100 degrees each
afternoon across the western half of the CWA. Heat index values
will approach heat advisory conditions across the upper portions
of the Rio Grande valley and northwest ranchlands through the
period as a result.
&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Monday Night): The surface pressure
gradient across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will bring periods of
moderate winds through the period, mainly in the afternoons and
evenings, though seas will generally remain low.

Tuesday through Friday...Light southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Tuesday with surface high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will remain weak
across the lower Texas coast Wednesday before increasing slightly
Thursday. Light southeast winds Wednesday will become light to
moderate Thursday and continue light to moderate through Friday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  93  79  92 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  95  78  95 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

19/61/56