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004
FXUS64 KBRO 170813
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
313 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Looks like much of the same
for the short term. Mid level ridge will continue to dominate the
region through the weekend. Subsidence will limit much of the
cloudy cover...minus a few passing cloud here or there. At the
surface, high pressure downstream will work with low pressure
across northern Mexico to bring breezy conditions to the eastern
half of the forecast area today. With the mid level heat bubble
sitting across the region, another hot day is expected across the
RGV and Deep South Texas. Temperatures will again reach the upper
90s along the coast to mid 100s across the western tier. Heat
Index values will approach 110 again today, however, much of the
area should remain just below heat headline thresholds.

Winds will drop overnight as the atmosphere decouples, or at least
not be as gusty. With low level moisture quickly returning after
sunset, a warm/humid night is again expected. Sunday the H5 high
settles right over our region bringing another hot dry day. With
the high sitting right over south Texas, decided to bump afternoon
highs a degree or two given the very close proximity of the high.
Last few days guidance has had a bit of a cooler bias so bringing
everyone up a degree or two fits well with the pattern. Looks
like most with the only exception right along the coast will hit
the 100 degree mark on Sunday. With the warmer temperatures heat
headlines are looking probable at the moment for much of the
region.


.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): By early next week a
weakness will continue to gradually carve out across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This should help push the
aforementioned high pressure aloft westward toward the Desert
Southwest. With subsidence now centered well upstream, expect
moisture to gradually increase throughout the column little by
little. As it does, daily rain chances will gradually increase
through the long term period with the best potential along the
sea breeze...generally east of the HWY281/I69C corridor.

Globals continue to struggle with the tropical wave expected to
move into the Bay of campeche mid to late week next week. At this
point, the operational ECM and GFS have a disorganized surface
feature, however, plenty of moisture associated with a slightly
better defined mid level vort. Even the GEFS members have become
poor defined with this surface feature over the last 24 hours or
so. Regardless, as the disorganized surface trough moves generally
northward, it appears the best rain chances will remain offshore.
We`ll continue to keep POPs as is for now (rather low with the
best shot across the Gulf waters) as confidence beyond Wednesday
is still a bit below average with discrepancies noted among the
solutions.

&&

.MARINE (Today through Sunday): Moderate to some cases strong
southerly winds expected across the Laguna Madre today.
Cautionary wording in coastal waters forecast is probable with
SCA not totally out of the question. For now, we`ll hold off on
an advisory and have the day shift take another look. Winds will
gradually decrease this evening across the bays, however, a
slight uptick is expected across the gulf waters after sunset.
Breezy afternoon conditions are expected through the short term
marine period with cautionary headlines expected for the bays and
portions of the gulf Sunday.


(Sunday Night through Friday): Winds will gradually begin to
improve early next week. There will still be daily breezes that
may approach SCA early on, however, as the flow becomes more
easterly and lightens, conditions should quickly become more
favorable. That said, we`re still watching the inverted trough
across the southern Gulf of Mexico late in the period. If this
does indeed begin to develop, winds and seas may need to be
altered (upward) and rain chances increased. At this time,
confidence beyond midweek is below average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  96  80 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          99  82  99  80 /  10   0  10  10
HARLINGEN           101  81 102  79 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN             103  82 104  80 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     105  80 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  83  91  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...Frye-55
Long Term...Frye-55
Upper Air/Climate...Miller-54