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000
FXUS64 KBRO 111632 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1132 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions now with moderate south southeast
winds. Few to scattered low cumulus cloud streets evident on
satellite over coastal sections. Isolated showers out over the
Gulf moving north. Mid level ridging lies over North Central
Mexico/West Texas with an inverted trough along the West Gulf.
High pressure dominates the Gulf. The morning BRO sounding showed
a healthy 1.75 inches PWAT. Expect a sea breeze to develop
shortly, but models are not keying on much precip, despite what
appears to be ample moisture. Influence from upstream ridge could
be a factor. Precip is better indicated over more unsettled areas
to the south over the Gulf. Guidance keeps conditions VFR, even
overnight, with a mix of clouds and sun today becoming mostly
clear tonight. Continued modest south southeast flow on Saturday
will likely mean a repeat of low cumulus cloud streets.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Minor changes needed to the previous suite of TAFs.
MVFR to VFR will persist through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure centered
over west Texas will remain the dominant force over the BRO CWFA
during the period. Dry weather with slightly above normal daytime
high and overnight low temperatures is anticipated for Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. On a positive note, the combination
of high temperatures today and Saturday and relative humidity will
not necessitate a Heat Advisory for any portion of the area during
the short term forecast period.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): The mid-level ridge
of high pressure pivots northwest across the Four Corners as low
pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Tropical moisture
slowly increases through the long term, building cloud cover and
returning a chance of rain by Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures
stay near normal into Monday before dropping a couple of degrees
each afternoon into late next week. This is highly dependent on
the increased chance of rain and cloud cover.

Of course, the biggest question of the long term remains what will
happen across the southwestern Gulf and the chance of any
tropical development late next week. This is still beyond the 5
day outlook for the NHC and on the edge of our 7 day forecast.
Models have been consistent with abundant tropical moisture and
instability across the western Gulf late next week. The most
appropriate messaging at this time continues to be preparedness
for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which started 10 days ago. As
always, stay tuned.

MARINE (Now through Saturday): High pressure over the western Gulf
of Mexico will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate
seas along the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Small Craft
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be
needed.

Saturday Night through Thursday: Mid-level low pressure slowly
builds across the western Gulf through the period. Very favorable
marine conditions are expected late this weekend into Wednesday.
Beyond Wednesday, all eyes remain on any tropical development
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Marine interests should stay
tuned and at the very least, expect an elevated swell with
increasing thunderstorm chances by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  78  91  76 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            95  77  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              95  76  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     100  76  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  81  85  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54-BHM/69-Farris