016
FXUS64 KBRO 160520 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1220 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Key Messages:

 * Persistent chance of rain, with the greatest threat for
   precipitation on Thursday.

 * Above normal daytime highs and overnight lows, with a Moderate
   to Major heat risk.

 * A Moderate to High risk of rip currents at the local beaches.

 * Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory
   conditions for mariners.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Increasingly unsettled weather will occur during the forecast
period. First, deepening and persistent mid-level troughiness over
the western United States will allow a 500 mb flow from the
southwest to northeast to form and linger over Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, especially from Sunday through
Wednesday. This will allow convection to develop over the
neighboring higher terrain of Mexico daily, which will then have
the potential to move into the BRO CWFA. Then, on Thursday, the
approach of a weak cold front will pool moisture and produce and
even greater chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperature-wise, despite the persistent rain chances, well above
normal daytime highs and overnight lows are anticipated. A
Moderate to Major heat risk will occur almost daily, with the
exception of Thursday, when a Minor heat risk is forecast due to
the more widespread rain chances and associated cloud cover.

Finally, with elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, a
Moderate to High risk of rip currents is likely for the local
beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Primarily VFR, with brief periods of MVFR possible through sunrise
at all sites. Southeasterly winds become gusty late morning
through the afternoon, up to 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will
create Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory conditions through the forecast period. The most likely
period for Small Craft Advisory conditions, especially in regards
to seas, will be in the Monday through Tuesday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  80  93  82 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               93  78  94  80 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 95  80  96  80 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  78  98  79 /   0   0  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  81  85  81 /  10   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  79  91  81 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...69-HK