Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 111139 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
539 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

...12z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly MVFR conditions today for MFE and HRL, however,
BRO may hold onto IFR through the morning. Eventually, MVFR will
give way to VFR by late this afternoon. Overnight, MFE should
remain VFR, however, HRL and BRO will likely bounce between VFR
and MVFR. Winds will be decreasing today, but northerly winds of
10-15 kts can still be expected. Lighter and more variable winds
are expected toward the end of the cycle, especially for MFE.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): A chilly morning across
much of the region this morning with most of the CWFA in the upper
40s to lower 50s under overcast skies. Winds have started to
subside a bit, especially along and west of the US 281 corridor.
Along the coast, winds remain elevated, especially across Padre
Island. At the surface, a coastal trough has developed across the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. With frictional convergence and
isentropic lift, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue
today, which will keep temperatures across the region cool. The
warmest temperatures will be along the Rio Grande across the upper
valley. A few pockets of drizzle may be possible along the
coastal zones today through tonight. The best rain potential
should remain offshore near the axis of the coastal trough.

Another chilly night is expected tonight, however, perhaps with a
few more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures may drop into the
lower and middle 40s across the upper Ranchlands. Very similar
temperatures across the middle and lower valley as this morning
with more cloud cover in place. On Thursday the coastal trough
will begin to gradually breakdown. This will lead to slightly
warmer temperatures and fewer clouds, though the Lower Valley and
coastal locations will likely hold onto mostly cloudy to overcast
skies through Thursday as the breakdown of the trough will be
relatively slow.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): An upper level
disturbance over Texas on Thursday moves east of the CWA Thursday
night. A few lingering showers will be possible across the lower
Texas Gulf waters Thursday night. Dry northwest to westerly flow
aloft will provide subsidence across deep south Texas Friday into
the weekend. Temperatures will steadily warm to well above normal
levels through the rest of the week into the weekend. High
temperatures Saturday and Sunday are expected to reach to mid to
upper 80s. Strengthening surface low pressure across west Texas
will support breezy southerly winds, especially near the coast, on
Sunday. A slight chance of rain will be possible on Monday as
moisture increases ahead of the next cold front. The best rain
chances will remain over the Gulf waters with the higher QPF
values. Models are in fairly good agreement through much of the
period. However, differences develop early next week with the
timing of the cold front on Monday and post frontal temperatures.
The ECMWF is faster and indicates an mid day cold frontal passage
on Monday, while the GFS is slightly slower and suggests the cold
front arrives late in the afternoon or early evening. Breezy north
winds will develop in the wake of the front Monday night into
Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE (Today through Thursday): Hazardous winds and seas
continue this morning across the Gulf waters of Deep South Texas.
A coastal trough has developed across the northwest Gulf of
Mexico, which will keep winds and seas elevated through the
period. In fact, SCA conditions will probably be present through
much of tonight and into Thursday before finally improving toward
the end of the week as the coastal trough finally breaks down.
Pockets of drizzle and scattered showers may be possible offshore
through much of the short term.

Thursday Night through Saturday Night...Marine conditions will
continue to improve on Thursday night as the pressure gradient
weakens across the western Gulf. Elevated seas may support
exercise caution conditions Thursday night. Otherwise, light
winds and low to moderate seas are expected Thursday night.
Otherwise, favorable marine conditions will prevail Friday into
the first half of the weekend.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-



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