653
FXUS64 KBRO 140534 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Near to above average (1.6-2.0 in.) PWAT values are likely to
continue into Tuesday as surface high pressure over the northern-
central Gulf slowly shifts westward to the northwestern Gulf. This
will maintain a humid airmass with onshore southeasterly to
southerly winds as well as a low (15-20%) chance of isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon along the seabreeze, mainly
across portions of the northern ranchlands, near and east of US-281.
PWAT values decrease Tuesday into Wednesday, likely staying below
average for the rest of the week, as deep south Texas remains on the
southwest side of a low pressure system moving into the central Gulf
states, thus also increasing subsidence aloft while decreasing cloud
coverage and rain chances. Although temperatures are expected to
remain near average during the week, maximizing into the mid to
high 90s inland, a slight warming trend is likely to raise daily
afternoon temperatures by a few degrees throughout the rest of
the period, becoming slightly above average over the weekend while
highs in the mid 80s persist along the coast. Highs in the lower
100`s become more widespread across the Rio Grande Plains by
midweek, possibly expanding eastward towards US-281 over the
weekend and into next Monday. As onshore southeasterly to
southerly winds continue, afternoon heat indices are likely to
range from 100-110 degrees. Near average overnight lows are likely
to persist, with temperatures minimizing in the 70`s inland to
near 80 degrees closer to the coast.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues into Monday along the

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24
hours. Light winds for the remainder of the overnight hours will
become breezy on Monday before diminishing around sunset. Partly
cloudy, rain-free skies are also forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to
moderate (2-3 feet) seas prevail through the rest of this week
and into the beginning of next week. Brief afternoon periods of
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible across the
Laguna Madre as moderate to fresh winds result from a locally
enhanced pressure gradient. Mostly dry conditions continue through
the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  80  93  79 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               95  77  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 97  80  97  79 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  77  98  76 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  80  87  80 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  79  92  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$