Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251731 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1231 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...18z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for all three terminals
for this TAF cycle. The only question is what will happen with
possible shallow ground fog around HRL. Guidance does ping on some
lower visibility and given the recent trends and AM observations,
can`t rule out additional vis issues tomorrow morning very briefly
around sunrise. Indicated this probability with MVFR for now, but
may briefly drop lower such as this morning. Winds will remain
10kt or less generally out of the east.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Unlike the past couple of
nights, KBRO Doppler radar is devoid of any convection along the
Lower Texas Coast. This might be a harbinger of what`s to come
across the entire BRO CWFA during the forecast period, as a 500 mb
ridge of high pressure is expected to build north out of Mexico
while closed 500 mb low pressure develops over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. This scenario will produce a mid-level flow
increasingly from the north over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley, leading to dry weather during the short term portion of the
forecast. Meanwhile, a record high temperature was tied at McAllen
Miller International Airport on Thursday, and with the previously
mentioned synoptic pattern setting up, there is no reason to believe
that above normal temperatures won`t continue across the forecast

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday):
Negligible changes in the ongoing extended forecast as models
continue to show the dominance of the midlevel ridge aloft. This
will continue to draw dry air across the region, keeping the
atmosphere stable, with mostly clear skies and heat index value
peaking around 105 each afternoon.

Now through Saturday: Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around
8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas slightly under 2.5
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Persistent
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to
produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the
Lower Texas Coast during the period, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed. A
surface area of low pressure will begin to organize near the
Yucatan Peninsula, but it is not expected to be of any threat to
the Lower Texas Coast.

Sunday through Tuesday: High pressure across the northwest Gulf
will keep light winds and seas going into the middle of next week.
Seas will generally remain 2 feet or less, with minimal chop on
the Laguna.




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