Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
246 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.Short Term (Now through Thursday night): The surface pressure
gradient is beginning to weaken across Deep South Texas as Hurricane
Zeta makes its way towards the Louisiana coast, resulting in
decreasing winds across the area. With skies clearing across the
region tonight and continued light to moderate northwesterly winds
temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s across much of the
CWA with 50s at the coast. Thursday, high pressure will begin to
settle across the area with dry conditions and warmer temperatures,
though we will still remain below seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): High pressure builds across
Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A 500mb trough
drops out of Canada and into the Great Lakes region Sunday,
sending a cold front south. The 500mb ridge strengthens across
Texas as the trough drops across the eastern CONUS, keeping very
dry air in place. The surface front remains relatively weak as it
attempts to dive south, but reinforces very comfortable conditions
into early next week. Most model guidance has a northerly wind
shift on Sunday holding into early Tuesday before turning to a
southeasterly flow by Wednesday. At this time there is a less than
10 percent chance of rain through the long term. Temperatures
remain below normal into next week, returning to near normal by
Wednesday. Overnight lows remain in the upper 40s to low 50s
Saturday morning, before warming into the 50s each morning through
Monday. Lows dip slightly lower once again on Tuesday morning.


.Marine (Now through Thursday Night): A tight pressure gradient
over the Gulf waters will begin to weaken overnight as Hurricane
Zeta continues to move northeast away from the Lower Texas Coast.
With this said, continued strong northwesterly winds into tonight
along with building seas will lead to hazardous marine conditions
over the Gulf waters with a Small Craft Advisory in effect until 7
am Thursday. Thursday morning into Thursday night, seas will
begin to lower with continued moderate to strong northwesterly
wind and possible SCEC conditions.

Friday through Wednesday: As high pressure builds across the
western Gulf of Mexico, expect marine conditions to continue to
improve, becoming quite favorable on Saturday into Sunday. A cold
front brings another round of moderate northerly winds Sunday
evening, building seas into Monday. Light to moderate seas
continue into mid week as winds shift back out of the southeast by
Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on Monday
through Monday night.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  74  55  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          49  78  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            47  77  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              48  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      46  76  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  73  63  69 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ150-155-170-



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