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000
FXUS64 KBRO 051937
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
237 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):Isolated seabreeze showers
will dissipate by early evening across interior portions of the
CWA. Otherwise, tranquil conditions are expected tonight with
ridging at all levels persisting. Ridging will remain in place
through Thursday night keeping mostly dry conditions. However,
just like today, there will be some isolated seabreeze showers
possible across mainly the southern portions of the CWA. This is
in response to a subtle moistening and cooling within the boundary
layer due to a slightly better onshore component. The ECMWF is
handling this moisture and slight rain chances better than the
other models and will again lean in this direction. Will again
lean towards persistence for the temperature forecast. A slightly
stronger gradient is expected on Thursday but still generally 15
kt or less.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday):Center of a 500mb ridge
resides over Texas at the beginning of the Long-term with models
suggesting a slow retrograde into New Mexico and Arizona by next
Wednesday. A slight increase in moisture is shown by the latest
model projections for this weekend and again Tuesday into
Wednesday with the passage of two weak tropical waves or inverted
troughs to the south of Deep South Texas. Model consensus is
trending ever so lower on pops for the weekend with the northern
extent of the first tropical wave passing near 20 degrees north.
Pops trend slightly higher, from previous model runs, for the
middle of next week as models suggest wave number two passing just
south of the Rio Grande bringing is deeper moisture. None the
less, with the added moisture some rain chances will continue in
the forecast albeit low. Temperatures remain persistent with no
extremes seen in the near future. Steady state highs and lows with
normal heat indices ranging between 100 and 109 each day.

&&

.MARINE:(Tonight through Thursday Night)...A slightly stronger
gradient will develop through the period but still remain below
caution criteria. Seas are expected to rise another 0.5 to 1 foot
as a result. Overall marine conditions will still remain quite
good. An increase in shower activity, mainly for the extreme
southern waters, will occur through the period as boundary layer
moisture increases with a freshening southeast flow.
(Friday through Monday)...Surface high pressure will
continue to dominate over the Western Gulf maintaining a weak
pressure gradient. Light onshore flow and slight seas to continue
through the weekend and early next week.  A slight uptick in
overnight or early daytime showers and thunderstorms Friday night
and the weekend as the northern edge of some tropical moisture nears
the lower Texas coastal waters.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  92 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  95  79  93 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  95  78  94 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              77  97  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  99  78  99 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  87  81  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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