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000
FXUS64 KBRO 242047
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
247 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A pretty stagnant and
stable weather pattern is expected in the short-term period.
Subtropical ridging over the Caribbean Sea will keep abnormally
warm temperatures in place through Thursday night. The biggest two
stories will be the breezy surface winds during the daytime on
Thursday and the dense fog expected along the coast. A strong
pressure gradient will remain in place as low pressure across
northeast Mexico interacts will strong high pressure over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Similar to today, south to southeast winds
will increase mid-late morning Thursday, peaking by early
afternoon. Although winds will be breezy for the majority of the
CWA, strongest winds will occur across Cameron and Willacy
Counties, where gusts will rival today`s gusts -- around 30 to 35
mph. A slow and nearly stationary, weak cold front will continue
to push south from central Texas through the day on Thursday,
stalling just north of the CWA by Thursday evening. Though chances
are very slight, enough low level convergence may produce a few
showers across the northern Ranchlands Thursday night into Friday
morning. Expect very warm temperatures over the next couple of
days, with lows in the mid-upper 60s tonight and daytime highs in
the mid-upper 80s on Thursday afternoon. Lows will be a tad lower,
especially for the Northern Ranchlands, on Thursday night as the
weak cold front tries to ooze its way south.

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the nearshore Gulf
waters through 9 AM Thursday morning. There might be periods where
the fog lifts or dissipates this afternoon, but ingredients will
remain in place for more fog development this evening and overnight
tonight, especially over the nearshore Gulf waters. Patchy dense fog
may advect over SPI and the Laguna Madre later on this evening or
tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for coastal zones of
Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): A weak front will make its
way south in the short term, stalling at our northern doorstep
Thursday night as the supporting short wave trough scoots east,
leaving the underlying front behind with little momentum. Still,
lowered Friday high temps a skosh below the blend in anticipation
of slightly cooler air reaching the ranchlands. The front will
start to move back north a day or so later. The upper flow will
remain southwest through the weekend with relatively quiet, albeit
warming weather as southeast flow becomes more robust. A short
wave trough will burrow through the Southwest United States and
lift across North Texas on Monday into Monday night. This will
bring another weak, underlying front through the region on Monday.
High pressure will then spread across the region behind the front
with slightly cooler weather through Wednesday under a fairly
zonal upper flow.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Thursday Night: Conditions for dense sea fog will
persist through much of the short-term period. A Dense Fog
Advisory is currently in effect for the nearshore Gulf waters
through 9 AM CST Thursday. Fog may push into the Laguna madre as
early as late afternoon or early this evening. Otherwise, high
pressure over the eastern Gulf will maintain light to moderate
south- southeasterly flow. Winds will be breeziest during the
daytime Thursday as diurnal heating tightens the pressure gradient
along the coast. Other than sea fog, relatively favorable marine
conditions will continue overnight tonight and through the day on
Thursday, with wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots (occasionally
higher) and wave heights around 3 to 4 feet.

Friday through Monday Night...Light to moderate southeast to
south winds will hold up all the way through Monday. Moderate seas
will occasionally trend higher, however, into small craft should
exercise caution territory. A front due on Monday will shift winds
to moderate northeast which will support moderate to high seas.
Sea fog will be possible the next three mornings as the nearshore
waters remain cool under higher dew point air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  79  65  74 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  81  67  77 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            65  82  65  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              68  84  66  80 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  62  81 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   65  70  66  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ150-155.

&&

$$

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