Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161123 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Light southeast winds with a few passing low clouds
prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible around sunrise as some low clouds
drift across the aerodromes, especially at HRL. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will persist for the next 24 hours as a mid-level
ridge over northern Mexico and south Texas continues to provide
subsidence across deep south Texas. Light winds this morning will
become moderate to breezy later this morning into the afternoon.
Moderate winds are expected to continue through this evening into
the overnight hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level ridging anchored over
the southern tip of Baja California will maintain hot days, warm and
humid nights, and rain-free conditions through the period. At the
surface, high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico will
support moderate to breezy southeast winds. Temperatures will remain
several degrees above normal today and Tuesday with near normal
temperatures expected tonight. Highs will range from the lower 80s
at the beaches, the low to mid 90s across the Lower Rio Grande
Valley and the upper 90s to the triple digits along and west of the
I-69C/U.S. 281 corridor under mostly sunny skies. Heat indices
between 100 to 105 degrees are expected each afternoon. Lows tonight
are expected to fall into the upper 60s across the northern
Ranchlands and the Brush Country to the lower 70s along the Rio
Grande River and near the coast. Also, patchy fog will be possible
around sunrise this morning, especially across the northern
Ranchlands. Any fog that develops should be brief and will quickly
dissipate after sunrise.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): High pressure in the
middle layers of the atmosphere will be the dominant feature over
the BRO CWFA during a majority of the period. This will produce
dry weather with gradually increasing daytime high and overnight
low temperatures from Tuesday night through Saturday. In fact, the
combination of well above normal high temperatures Friday and
Saturday and a moist atmosphere may result in a Heat Advisory
those days for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley. A welcome change to the anticipated hot and dry pattern
may occur on Sunday, as the approach of a weak cold front,
combined with the proximity of a 500 mb disturbance, could produce
much cooler (near normal) temperatures and isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly under
3.6 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 0220 CDT/0720 UTC. Moderate
south to southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the
period with high pressure parked across the central Gulf. Slightly
stronger winds will support Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
on the Laguna and the nearshore Gulf Waters this afternoon and
especially Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: High pressure positioned over the
Gulf of Mexico will interact with thermal low pressure situated
over inland Mexico throughout the period. This will create breezy
winds and slowly building moderate to rough seas along the Lower
Texas Coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft
Advisory are likely to be needed on a daily basis.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  73  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          93  75  93  77 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            96  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              99  72  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  70 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  77  83  77 /   0   0   0   0




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