Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 282319 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
519 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
some high clouds moving across the CWA early this evening. Expect
VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley tonight
through Saturday morning as the 500mb ridge across the western
United States continues to provide subsidence across the state of

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): It has been a very
pleasant and dry February day across Deep South Texas. Dewpoint
temperatures have dipped into the mid-upper 20s and lower 30s
across the district, allowing temperatures to warm up into the
low-mid 70s early this afternoon. Further warming is anticipated
as peak heating is still a couple of hours away, as of writing
this. Although RH values have been fairly low today (teens and
lower 20s), light winds have kept erratic fire behavior potential
at a minimum.

Weak and dry west-northwest mid-level flow will continue through
the majority of the short-term period as a trough over the
eastern CONUS continues to progress eastward. At the surface,
high pressure draped across the western Gulf of Mexico will
gradually move eastward across the central and eastern Gulf by
Saturday night. As this occurs, the combination of thermal
troughing over the Sierra Madres and a developing and deepening
surface low on the foothills of the Rockies will tighten the
surface pressure gradient across Deep South Texas. Thus,
southeast winds on Saturday afternoon will be on the breezy side,
especially along the coast. At this time, a Wind Advisory is not
anticipated, but will continue to monitor future runs in the
model guidance and update if necessary. As far as rain chances...
rain is highly unlikely through Saturday night.

Overall, temperatures are forecast to be around seasonal average
in the short-term. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than
last night, with temperatures in the mid-upper 40s for the
majority of the region. Temperatures warm up to near or slightly
above seasonal normal on Saturday, with highs in the mid-upper
70s (lower 80s west). Abnormally warm temperatures return starting
Saturday night into Sunday morning, with lows generally in the
mid-upper 50s (lower 60s near and along the coast).

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Mid-level ridging will shift
east and the pattern will flatten on Sunday. Surface high pressure
will also shift east, with lower pressure developing over the
southern High Plains. The CWA will see dry flow aloft and
strengthening south winds at the surface during the weekend and
the early part of the week. A warming trend will continue through
next Tuesday with increasing low level moisture in advance of the
next cold front expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The
GFS suggests that strong northwest winds will develop behind the
front late Tuesday into Wednesday with only a modest decrease in
temperatures except for a little better drop at night under clear
skies and a drier column. The ECMWF now delays the front and is
milder. The biggest impact of the Tuesday night front, following
the GFS, will be fire weather concerns on Wednesday. Reduced
relative humidity values and strong northwest winds forecasted for
Wednesday are suggesting a potential red flag scenario.
Otherwise, high pressure building in behind the system will
support subsidence with mostly sunny skies and near normal
temperatures through the end of the workweek.

Now through Saturday Night...Buoy 42020 reported west-southwest
winds around 6 knots gusting to around 8 knots with seas around
one foot with a period of 6 seconds at 1340 CST/1940 UTC. High
pressure at the surface over the western Gulf of Mexico will
initially produce favorable winds and seas this afternoon, tonight
and into Saturday morning. However, as the high moves off towards
the central Gulf of Mexico and begins to interact with low
pressure over inland Mexico, increasing winds and building seas
will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday afternoon
and evening. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory
may be needed at that time.

Sunday through Wednesday night...Gulf high pressure will interact
with lower pressure across the southern High Plains. Elevated
southeast to south winds will be the rule during the long term
portion of the marine forecast, leading to small craft should
exercise caution to borderline or low end small craft advisory
conditions on the Laguna Madre. Small craft advisory conditions
appear more certain for the Gulf zones during this period. A cold
front will make its way through the area and offshore Tuesday
night, with strong northwest winds developing on Wednesday for all
waters, and persisting into Wednesday night on the Gulf waters.



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