Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
992 FXUS64 KBRO 151147 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 547 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 * Adverse marine conditions this morning gradually improve throughout the day today. * A high risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon. * Probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) steadily increase throughout Tuesday night to a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain by Wednesday morning. * Dry conditions return overnight Wednesday aside from a low (15-20%) chance of rain near the coast in association with a weak cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Northerly winds, partially clearing skies and dry (less than 10% PoPs) conditions continue through today and tonight for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in wake of yesterday`s cold front. Throughout tomorrow, southeasterly winds return, clouds build and chances of rain steadily increase across the region from a low (15-30%) chance in the evening to a low to medium (20-50%) chance, highest near the coast, by Wednesday morning as moisture pooling enhances in response to a cold front moving into northern and central Texas. At this time, rainfall amounts are forecast to range from a trace, or no rain, for most areas while up to half an inch is possible across portions of the lower RGV and the barrier islands. Chances of rain gradually decrease from west to east throughout the day on Wednesday down to less than 10% over the course of Wednesday night. A trough moving across the Central Plains on Thursday may push a cold front into the County Warning Area Thursday night or Friday morning, briefly turning winds out of the northeast, but southeasterly to southerly winds return Friday night and through the remainder of this upcoming weekend as surface high pressure regains control over the Gulf. There is a low (15-20%) chance of rain near the coast Thursday night into Friday morning in association with the front. Cold air advection from northerly winds keep temperatures 5-10 degrees F cooler than average today with highs reaching into the 60s. A warming trend follows tonight through Thursday as return flow results warm overnight lows from the upper 40s and low/mid 50s tonight to the 50s and 60s Tuesday night through this upcoming weekend while daytime highs in the 70s tomorrow warm to the 70s/80s on Wednesday and mid/upper 80s on Thursday, which is 10-15 degrees F above average. A slight cool down is anticipated behind the weak front on Friday, with highs in the 70s. 80s return over the weekend and into the beginning of the following week. A high risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Low stratus will keep MVFR at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, although a slip into VFR cannot be entirely ruled out. Surface winds will gradually diminish through the day and into tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Further improvement in winds and seas are expected throughout today and tonight as moderate to fresh northerly winds diminish to gentle to moderate southeasterly winds by Tuesday morning along with moderate (3-4 ft) seas continuing into this upcoming weekend. Chances of rain increase from a low (15-20%) chance Tuesday evening to a medium (40-60%) chance on Wednesday before dropping to a low (less than 10%) chance by Thursday morning. Winds may briefly shift out of the east-northeast and a low (15-30%) chance of rain may return late Thursday night into Friday as a weak front approaches or passes through before returning out of the southeast over this upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 65 56 75 66 / 0 0 10 30 HARLINGEN 63 51 75 62 / 0 0 10 30 MCALLEN 64 53 75 64 / 0 0 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 51 70 60 / 0 0 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 61 73 68 / 0 0 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 55 75 64 / 0 0 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$