Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281424 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the North Country will bring another day of dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and above normal temperatures. A noticeable change will take place tonight as precipitation chances increase overnight as a warm front approaches the area. A large upper level low pressure system will then move slowly eastward out of the Great Lakes and into the northeast United States Sunday and Monday. Thus you can expect an extended period of wet weather across the entire area. The majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, but areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont could see some freezing rain and snow Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1024 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast for today remains in pretty good shape with only some minor adjustments needed to sky cover and temps. Mid/high clouds are racing in across the region and based on area webcams the sun is mostly blocked to the west with some filtered sunshine across eastern areas. Expect this clouds cover to gradually thicken through the day which will limit the amount of insolation heating and thus, have dropped high temps a couple of degrees for this afternoon, though overall still looking at mostly low 50s. Otherwise, no precip is expected for today with light winds. Enjoy! Previous Discussion... Expect a good start to the weekend with high pressure over the area today. There will be some increasing high clouds, but we should still see a good deal of sunshine and no precipitation is expected. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures today and a very dry air mass over the area suggests we should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Thus looking at highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Flow aloft begins to back to the southwest tonight in advance of a large upper level low pressure system moving into the Upper Midwest. This will bring a warm front and deeper moisture into the region and overnight precipitation should become widespread over the area. Feel temperatures over much of the area will be above freezing and thus expecting precipitation mainly in the form of rain. Forecast soundings show pronounced warm nose moving over the area, but areas east of the Greens will see temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. The Northeast Kingdom of Vermont will be the area most likely to see these colder surface temperatures and thus the potential for some freezing rain will exist. Where freezing rain will be most noticeable will be across the mountaintops. With the warm temperatures during the day today ground temperatures will warm as well and this could actually limit impacts from any freezing rain in the lower elevations. This is definitely not a classic freezing rain pattern where cold air damming develops near the surface. Temperatures will be hovering right around the freezing mark. Will not issue an advisory at this time, however will issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential for freezing rain. As mentioned earlier widespread precipitation will be across the area on Sunday with most locations picking up a half to three quarters of an inch of rain. This will lead to rises on area rivers and streams. Snowpack is confined to the highest elevations and thus additional runoff from snowmelt may not be significant enough to cause flooding issues at this time. However the situation will be monitored. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 30s to around 40 east of the Green Mountains and in the mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday night and Monday will see the upper level low move right over the area. While there might be a few breaks in the precipitation sufficient dynamic support will exist for widespread showers across the entire area during this time period. Additional rainfall is expected during this time period with another quarter to half inch possible. This will lead to additional rises on area waterways. We start to lose the warm layer of air aloft on Monday and this will help to bring snowmelt to an end, but will likely change some of the precipitation over to snow, especially over the higher terrain and east of the Greens for some minor snow accumulations. Highs on Monday will generally be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Showery weather is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning as a cold core upper level low situates across the North Country. With cold air advection noticeable in the mid and upper levels, any chances of mixed precipitation will be non- existent as thermal profiles will be either below freezing through the entire column or below freezing through the entire column except at the surface. This should yield generally elevational dependent snow showers with rainfall likely at the lower elevations. Precipitation rates during the time frame will be fairly light but we will hold onto PWAT values near 0.5 inches. Any snow accumulations Monday night into Tuesday morning should be less than an inch and and snow that does fall will change over to rain Tuesday morning as temperatures warm above freezing. The weather pattern becomes rather complicated this upcoming week as we remain under a longwave trough with several reinforcing upper level lows dropping out of Canada to help amplify the upper level trough across the northeastern US. While no one particular day looks to be dry, no one particular day looks to be a washout. With colder air in the mid and upper levels, diurnally driven "instability" showers look probable. We have included a lot of 30-40 percent PoPs through the extended period to account for these diurnal showers. Nevertheless, temperatures should hover right around seasonal normals through the upcoming week with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through this evening. Rainfall will move into the North country between 07Z and 10Z with MVFR ceilings developing as the rainfall begins to fall. Visibilities will likely be reduced to 3-4 miles during the rainfall on Sunday with the potential for some isolated IFR conditions after 12Z. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: MVFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Clay

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