


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --288 FXUS61 KBTV 142332 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 732 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will push south and east of the region this evening. A humid air mass will linger overnight with light winds and the potential for patchy dense fog, especially in favored valley locations. Temperatures will climb in the coming days, with afternoon highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday should be the hottest day, with valley locations reaching the mid-90s. An approaching frontal system from the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region by Thursday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 229 PM EDT Monday...This afternoon, we continue to monitor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some containing brief heavy rainfall and generally sub-severe wind gusts. Storms at 1830Z extended from Orleans County in northeastern VT swwd to near Waterbury and into the Middlebury area. Some limiting factors exist for much in the way of severe potentially...namely modest mid-level lapse rates around 6C/km and sfc-6km bulk shear of only around 20kts. PW axis remains across VT, with values of 1.7 to 1.8". This is favorable for heavy downpours (in conjunction with SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg), but as is typical, generally limits the mid-level lapse rates with tall/skinny CAPE profiles. Have seen some convective rainfall amounts in the 1-1.25" range in southern Chittenden and Addison counties earlier this afternoon, helped by slow storm motions of only ESE 10-15kts. Will continue to monitor convective threat through early this evening for potential heavy rain/gusty winds. Thereafter, activity should diminish in intensity and gradually shift to the south and east of our CWA. For the overnight hours, generally quiet with light wind conditions. Have noted some increase in near-surface particulate matter across the Ottawa Valley into nrn NY this afternoon, so will probably see some areas of smoke/BR this evening and overnight. This may also help fog formation, and included patchy dense fog overnight in the favored river valley locations. Overnight lows should range from the low-mid 60s. With the increase in fine particulates, Air Quality Alerts are in effect from midnight tonight through midnight Tuesday night. On Tuesday, mid-level ridge starts to build across the nern CONUS with 850mb temperatures increase to +18 to +19C. Should yield warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The July 15th record high at BTV is only 93F...we will likely fall a degree or two short of that value, but it will be close. Dewpoints will generally be in the mid-60s. With anticyclonic flow aloft and building heights, not expecting any tstm development for Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 229 PM EDT Monday...The story for the mid-week period will be the high probability of hot and humid conditions, with potentially our first stretch of 3 consecutive 90 degrees days at BTV this summer for the TUE-THU time frame (i.e., our first "heat wave" locally). Wednesday appears to be the hottest day of the stretch with highs reaching the low-mid 90s across most of the North Country. With heat index values in the 95-100 degree range on Wednesday, will need to monitor for a possible heat advisory. We have heat messaging in the Hazardous Weather Outlook at this time. Can`t rule out an isold thunderstorm or two across nrn NY on Wednesday afternoon/evening, but absence of any strong forcing will limit coverage. Lows Wednesday night will generally remain in the 70s in most areas outside of the Adirondacks and Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 229 PM EDT Monday...A frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring modest mid-level height falls and developing mid-level cyclonic flow, sufficient for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon/evening, especially given strong PBL heating and high dewpoints. NBM suggests 2-m dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Despite temperatures being a few degrees cooler (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s), heat index values will not vary considerably from Wednesday. Would anticipate still having concerns for possible heat advisories in some areas through the day Thursday. The high dewpoints will help drive moderate surface-based instability, with SBCAPE potentially 2000-2500 J/kg. As a result, a few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, and we will continue to monitor for that potential. Will also need to watch for localized heavy rainfall, and WPC has continued to marginal risk in their Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. In the 12Z NWP guidance suite for Friday, frontal system progresses further south and east, and there is an increasing chance that most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be shifting to our south and east accordingly. Have maintained 30 PoPs during the morning hours, with diminishing PoPs in the afternoon from NW-SE. This should also bring about some cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Friday afternoon. Seasonable temperatures are expected to continue through the upcoming weekend, with highs mainly in the 80-85F range. Canadian high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for Saturday, with just a low potential for showers (20-30 percent) Sunday based on current indications. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals as showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon have since ended. Some fog development is expected overnight in some of the more favored valleys and terminals, especially KMPV and KSLK, with less confidence at other terminals. Outside of any fog bringing IFR to LIFR conditions, VFR conditions should continue to prevail throughout most of the forecast period, although the other exception would be haze from Canadian wildfire smoke bringing some reduced visibilities at times. Winds will generally be light and variable throughout the forecast period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Kremer