Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030218 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1018 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep skies clear and temperatures cool for the morning and mild for the afternoons through early Independence Day. Precipitation chances return Monday evening through late Tuesday evening as a frontal system moves through the region. Temperatures will be trending below normals Tuesday and Wednesday before warming back to around averages late in the week; conditions become more unsettled late next with with periods of precipitation possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1014 PM EDT Saturday...No changes needed to the previous forecast. Temperatures overall have been dropping quickly under clear skies and light winds. Seasonably cool temperatures look to be on track for tonight with near normal temperatures expected again on Sunday. Previous Discussion...High pressure will be firmly in place through Sunday night with daytime breezes out of the west through northwest. Shallow valley radiation inversion are expected tonight and Sunday night keeping winds light. Fog isn`t a particular concern tonight since winds aloft will be 10-20mph above the inversion keeping enough mixing to preclude fog formation at valley surfaces. Inversion strength increases Sunday night with some valleys passably seeing patchy fog. Otherwise, overnight temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be on the cooler side with lows in the 50s for main valleys and mid/upper 40s for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...Overall a quiet and dry start to Independence Day is expected. High temperatures will be quite seasonable in the mid 70s to around 80. As we head into the evening, precipitation chances begin to increase from west to east as a warm front noses in from Ontario. Increasing moisture advection along with some isentropic ascent should support some shower activity moving into the BTV forecast area overnight, though coverage will just be scattered and QPF generally light. Instability will be weak given warm air advection in the mid- levels that will promote weak lapse rates. Have forecast QPF up to around a quarter of an inch. Overnight lows Monday night will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...A developing weak area of low pressure will pass just to our south on Tuesday. With a Bermuda High in place over the western Atlantic, much of the eastern US will experience humid conditions as Gulf of Mexico-sourced moisture is pumped northeastward. However, with the track of the weak low staying just to our south, it appears we will be just north of the moisture/temperature gradient and spared the brunt of the sultry conditions. Nonetheless, will see enough moisture and weak convergence as the low moves through to see some additional scattered light to moderate intensity showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Lapse rates will again be quite weak on Tuesday, so have kept mention of thunder out of the forecast. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Quiet weather is then forecast for Wednesday as high pressure moves through behind the departing low. Temperatures Wednesday will be in the 70s. Conditions turn a little more unsettled going into the end of the week, though difficult to go into too much detail at this point given the discrepancies among different model guidance with regards to the amplification of the upper-level flow. Have stayed close to the National Blend forecast during this time frame, with just some 10-30 percent precipitation chances and near seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...Clear skies with just a few sporadic wisps of cirrus clouds are expected through the forecast period with drier air filtering into the region. Light winds tonight become gusty from the west/northwest during the late morning hours with good mixing under plentiful sunshine. Winds will likely max out around 20-22 knots and will again go light and variable around sunset tomorrow night. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Clay SHORT TERM...Duell LONG TERM...Duell AVIATION...Clay

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