National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 152122
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will bring widespread moderate to heavy snow to
the North Country from tonight through early Friday afternoon.
Expected snow totals will range from 5 to 10 inches through mid
day on Friday with another round of light snow Friday night and
Saturday. Quiet weather returns on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Low pressure forming off the coast
of North Carolina will phase with low over southern Indiana
overnight then lift along the east coast and be centered near
NYC Friday morning. Widespread snow will lift into our region
after about 8pm. Front edge of the snow is currently in a line
from Rochester to Binghamton to Poughkeepsie. Snow spreads north
across our area and will be heaviest between 1 - 7 am. This
will make the Friday morning commute very messy. At times we may
have 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates as a mesoband lifts
across the area. Snow ratios will range from about 9-12:1
initially in the warm air advection burst of snow and then will
switch to 13-15:1 once low pulls to the northeast Friday morning
into the afternoon hours. Low will continue to lift
northeastward towards Nova Scotia by about 00z Saturday. As the
low lifts away, synoptic snowfall comes to an end during Friday
afternoon. Snowfall totals from the storm will range from 5 to
10 inches, lowest in the Saint Lawrence Valley and Western
Rutland Counties. Some areas will see upwards of a foot of snow,
especially in the higher elevations and wherever the mesoband
sets up. This will likely lead to some isolated power outages
and will certainly make travel difficult especially during the
Friday morning commute. The highest qpf totals fall from around
6-12z where region wide we`ll be looking at between 0.25-0.5" of
liquid equivalent. At this time most models indicating that dry
slot and warm nose should remain to our south and east. If the
dry slot does make it into our area, could have some lower
amounts especially in Southern Vermont. As the low pulls off to
our northeast we will have some wrap around snow showers
beginning during Friday evening. There won`t be a real clean
break between the snow from the low pressure system, then the
snow from upper level energy moving across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EST Thursday...Flow aloft will be westerly Friday
night with a shortwave trough moving across southern Quebec and
northern New England. This will allow for additional light
precipitation but upslope flow will enhance precipitation across
northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. Eventually
the upslope flow will relax after midnight Friday night and the
areal coverage of the precipitation should decrease. Mountains
will pick up another couple of inches as a result of the upslope
flow. Plenty of cloud cover will persist Friday night for lows
only falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Westerly flow continues on Saturday for highs in the 30s to
around 40 with a chance for some showers...especially in the
mountains. Secondary arctic front will push across the area
Saturday evening and with steep low level lapse rates could see
some snow squall activity. High pressure builds in Saturday
night for drier weather as precipitation comes to an end. Colder
air moves in with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 356 PM EST Thursday...Still looking at a relatively
unsettled extended period but no major systems expected and
below normal temperatures through the entire period. High
temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s with lows
in the low teens to around 20...certainly continuing the cold
trend of this November. Ridging out west will keep much of the
US poised under a broad upper level trough with continued
unsettled weather through next week.

Surface high pressure builds in on Sunday, but upper level
troughing and NW winds will keep passing clouds around,
especially across the high terrain of the Adirondacks. Snow
showers may be possible across the high peaks, but expect
accumulations to be limited and confined to these areas.
Moisture increases Monday as two pieces of energy pass by the
area. Best chances for precipitation will be showers across the
northern tier and southern areas, with central Vermont in the in
between zones. Behind this front, cold air from Canada brings
another push of well below average temperatures. Conditions look
to be similar to what we`ve been experience these past two days
with high temperatures in the teens and 20s and lows in the
single digits to low teens. Moderating (but still below normal)
temperatures and quiet weather continues to be the early trends
for Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will exist through 02z then
ceilings will lower into the MVFR and IFR categories between
02z and 06z. IFR/LIFR ceilings will then persist over the area
after 06z through the remainder of the period. The lower
ceilings are in response to snow moving into the region between
02z and 06z...but visibilities will still be in the MVFR and VFR
categories. After 06z steadier snow develops and looking at
visibilities lowering into the 1 to 3 mile range for the
remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or
less through the period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for VTZ001>010-012-
     016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for VTZ011.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ028>031-034-
     035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ026-027-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson/Neiles
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Evenson