-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
627
FXUS61 KBTV 231126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity is expected through Tuesday, before a
cold front slides south late Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms and a return to more
seasonable weather. An unsettled pattern emerges towards the end of
the week, with another wet weekend possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 718 AM EDT Monday...
**Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories in effect through 8
 PM Tuesday.**

A positive tilt ridge remains over the eastern half of Vermont
with mid-level stratus still hanging around the axis. These
clouds should pull away after a couple hours, with abundant
sunshine taking its place. Surface dewpoints will climb into
low to mid 70 dewpoints across Canada slide eastwards.
Increasingly dry mid-level air and subsidence beneath an
intensifying upper high will promote efficient warming today.
Temperatures are likely to soar into the low to mid 90s with
some upper 90s in the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut
River Valley. The slight positive to this is that some dry air
should mix to the surface midday and bring dewpoints back
towards the lower 60s. Heat indices in the Champlain Valley are
still likely to reach about 105, with widespread 92-103 for the
rest of the region. A shower or thunderstorm could spark along
the Vermont and New Hampshire border, but there will not be
anything across the forecast area otherwise.

Overnight, little cooling is expected due to steady
southwest winds. Sheltered portions of the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom should be able to take advantage of lower
dewpoints from afternoon mixing and make it into the upper 60s,
but the rest of Vermont and northern New York are likely to fail
falling below 70. Due to the winds, it is not impossible that
parts of the Champlain Valley, like BTV, get below 80.

Another hot day will unfold on Tuesday, but a cold front will
shift towards us. The convergence along it is not particularly
strong, and the moisture feed, though rich, is thin. There`s
minimal shear to support organization, but strong heating with
near 90 to mid-upper 90s will provide about 2000 J/kg of CAPE.
If there are any stronger updrafts, a strong or localized severe
storm is possible. For now, high res guidance suggests pulse
convection and perhaps a couple transient multi-cell clusters.
So PoPs are generally 20-40% across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...Temperatures will be in the 60s in most
places by Wednesday morning, except in the valleys of southern
Vermont where they look to be stuck in the lower 70s. However, dew
points will be in the 50s and 60s so the humidity will be noticeably
lower with light winds out of the northwest. A cold front will stall
somewhere to the south of the region for the middle of the week.
Highs in the upper 70s and 80s Wednesday will feel much milder after
the early week heat with near 90 temperatures hanging on in southern
zones. The day will be mainly dry and mostly sunny under the
influence of high pressure in Canada, with a light northerly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...With a cold front stalled to our south at
the end of the week, we`ll have seasonable temperatures and
shower/thunderstorm chances as areas of low pressure develop along
the front. No major impacts are expected at this time as we sit in
the cool sector of the system and precipitation remains progressive.
An upper shortwave tracking along the low level thermal gradient is
expected to enhance the upper forcing for ascent on Thursday, so we
have a 15-35% chance of showers during the day and evening, and a
few rumbles of thunder are possible in southern Vermont.

Friday, coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be more
widespread as the boundary lingers south of our area and surface low
pressure approaches across the Great Lakes with about 50-70% chance
of precipitation Friday through Friday night. An axis of surface
instability looks to set up across the St. Lawrence Valley,
indicating the most favorable area for some thunderstorm activity
will be up that way in the afternoon. Model consensus begins to
really crumble on Saturday, but there should be enough forcing
around for us to have 40-60% chance showers and thunderstorms. Highs
Thursday through Saturday look to be near or cooler than seasonal
averages in the 70s to lower 80s and lows during this same time
frame near or above seasonable in the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 12Z Tuesday...A layer of stratus between 2500-4000 ft
agl is scattered fog as it shifts and dissipates in the next
couple hours. Beyond 14z, increasing south to southwest winds of
8 to 12 knots sustained, up to 15 at times at KMSS will develop.
Skies will be clear. After 00z, winds will trend towards 4 to 8
knots. A zone of 30 knot west-northwest winds at 2000 ft agl
will move northeast to southeast between about 01z and 11z,
with pockets of LLWS noted at every terminal. Faster winds will
move southeast of the region after 12z Tuesday. This should also
preclude fog development overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely during an
upcoming hot spell. Below are the current daily records that could
be broken:

Max Temp Records for 06-23
Site  Forecast   - Current Record
KBTV  98 (Break) - 96|2020
KMPV  93 (Break) - 90|1975
KMSS  94 (Break) - 92|2020
KPBG  96 (Break) - 95|1983
KSLK  92 (Break) - 89|1964


Max Temp Records for 06-24
Site  Forecast   - Current Record
KBTV 96 (Tie)    - 96|2003
KMPV 93 (Break)  - 89|2003
KMSS 92 (Break)  - 91|1957
KPBG 94 (Break)  - 93|1975
KSLK 90 (Tie)    - 90|2003


High Min Temp Records
Date   KBTV      KMPV     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
06-22  71|1976   67|1953  66|1976  68|1976  63|1976
06-23  75|1894   65|1985  71|1975  70|1975  64|1921

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     VTZ006>008-010-011-016>021.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for VTZ001-002-005-009.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VTZ003-004.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ026-027-087.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ028-035.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...Team BTV