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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 270521
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
121 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and quieter weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday
with high pressure moving over the North Country. A few lake
effect snow showers will be possible over the northern
Adirondacks on Tuesday but areal coverage is expected to be very
limited. The remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta will move across
southern New England Thursday night into Friday and will bring a
chance for rain and snow to the southern half of Vermont. The
coldest air mass of the season thus far will follow Friday night
but temperatures are expected to moderate to near normal values
by the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1031 PM EDT Monday...Moisture is moving east of the area
tonight, and cold air will be filtering in overnight. Will have
just a chance for a snow shower as precipitation comes to an end
across the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. Have dropped the
lake wind advisory as winds have weakened following the frontal
passage. Clouds sticking around through the overnight will keep
temperatures from dropping too drastically. Previous discussion
follows.

The thick blanket of cloud cover we have seen overhead today
likely won`t begin to lift and dissipate until daybreak on
Tuesday which will cap our overnight lows in the 30s. High
pressure building across the region should help break up the
junky clouds and allow for a little bit of sunlight tomorrow but
it`s going to feel like a late fall day as high temps max out
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A 7- 12 mph steady northwesterly
wind won`t help at all tomorrow where wind chill values will
likely hover around the freezing mark throughout the day. By the
late afternoon/early evening hours, it looks like our low level
flow will back to the west/southwest which could help a few
lake effect rain/snow showers to impact the northern Adirondacks
but areal coverage should be very minimal given the low fetch
across Lake Ontario. Much cooler temperatures will be in store
for the region Tuesday night as partly to mostly clear skies
couple with light winds allow temps to drop into the low 20s to
low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...High pressure slides to our south
Wednesday and Wednesday night while we remain under fast zonal
flow aloft. A couple of upper shortwaves will scoot through this
flow during this period, skirting along or just north of the
international border, along with a strengthening jet. This
combined with a ribbon of increased moisture will allow for a
few light rain/snow showers late Wednesday through Wednesday
night, mainly over the higher terrain. The aforementioned jet
will also make for breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon,
especially in the St Lawrence Valley where southwest winds will
be channeled up the valley. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, followed by overnight lows in the lower
30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...The focus for the long term continues
to be a low pressure system which will lift from the Deep South
northeastward Thursday and move off the Mid Atlantic coast
Thursday night into Friday morning. Meanwhile, high pressure
will build south from Canada, helping to keep the bulk of the
low pressure system shunted to our south. The result will be a
tight precipitation gradient on the north side of the
precipitation shield, and the latest model guidance has shown a
slight southward trend in where this gradient will lie. Hence,
southern portions of our forecast area will likely see a quarter
inch or more of precipitation, while northern areas will see
little to nothing. Precipitation will be rain at the onset
Thursday afternoon, but falling temperatures overnight will
allow rain to mix with/change over to snow. A couple of inches
of accumulation will be possible over portions of south central
VT, with the highest accumulations over the higher terrain.
Elsewhere, any snow accumulation would be less than an inch.

The precipitation winds down Friday afternoon, with cold and
blustery conditions to persist through the day and overnight.
Friday`s highs will likely only be in the 30s in most spots, and
nighttime lows will be in the teens and 20s. Dry weather
prevails for the weekend as the high crests over the North
Country on Saturday, then moves south on Sunday. South flow will
quickly increase Sunday afternoon around the back of the high
and ahead of low pressure approaching from the northern Great
Lakes, so a warming trend is expected through the weekend as
well. Saturday`s highs will be in the lower to mid 40s while
Sunday will see temperatures topping out in the mid 40s to
around 50. Precipitation chances increase as we head into early
next week with the aforementioned low and its attendant front
bring showers to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs continue
through 12Z, gradually lifting to a mix of VFR/MVFR through 18Z,
then VFR at all terminals by 00Z Wed. Scattered light showers
with brief MVFR visibility restrictions possible through 10Z at
selected terminals. Additional scattered light shower activity
possible at KSLK/KRUT in the 20-02Z time frame. Winds generally
light north to northwesterly 4-8 kts through 20Z, trending light
and variable thereafter.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Slight chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...JMG