Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211134 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 734 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build across the forecast area through the end of the week, resulting in warm, sunny days and clear, chilly nights featuring fog in river valleys and potentially even some isolated frost in the Adirondacks. A low pressure system will likely approach the area during the weekend, increasing cloud cover, but uncertainty remains on whether we`ll receive any rain showers from this system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 733 AM EDT Thursday...Frost Advisory is no longer in effect as temperatures rise out of criteria this morning. No major updates with this update as the forecast is on track. Some minor tweaks to sky cover where there`s some very thick fog lifting up. We can anticipate temperatures rising to the mid-60s to lower 70s today with plentiful sunshine under high pressure. Previous discussion below: Previous discussion...High pressure keeps the region fairly quiet weather-wise through Friday. Today will feature seasonable highs in the mid-60s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom and lower 70s for the wider valleys with a slight warming trend tomorrow - highs instead in the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest in the wider valleys. Otherwise sunshine will be abundant both days and winds will be light. Tonight will be chilly with the lack of insulating clouds and lows should drop into the lower/mid-30s in the cold spots of the Adirondacks to mid-40s close to the mild waters of Lake Champlain. It won`t be as chilly as last night, but there could still be some isolated frost or freezing fog developing in the Saranac Lake area of Franklin County, NY. Elsewhere, regular fog will likely be plentiful once more under such clear skies and high pressure, especially in river valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...High clouds should begin to overspread the North Country from south to north on Friday night as closed mid- level low tracks northward from the Carolinas into the mid-atlantic coast. Per NHC, system may acquire some subtropical characteristics during this time frame, which should bring a strong poleward moisture flux and surge of high precipitable water values northward into southern New England by 12Z Saturday. Where the 00Z NWP differences is whether this moisture plume can advect further north into our area later in the day Saturday. The 00Z GFS suggests enough of a blocking ridge to our north to limit the northward movement of lower clouds and shower activity. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF and especially the 00Z Canadian are more aggressive in moving rain into our region Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. For now, have kept the forecast closer to the 00Z GFS and GFS ensemble, which is also closer to continuity from the previous forecast keeping bulk of precipitation to our south during the forecast period. This means just a slight chance of rain showers (20% PoPs) Saturday afternoon/early evening across Rutland/Windsor counties, with dry conditions further north. Should see low temperatures Friday night mainly in the 40s, except lower 50s in the Champlain Valley. On Saturday, the warmest temperatures are likely in the northern Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys where some filtered sunshine is expected. Highs in these valleys will generally reach the lower 70s. Meanwhile, thicker cloud cover should keep highs in the 65-70F range across central and s- central VT, as well as the nrn Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...Per short-term discussion, main question will be northward translation of closed, deep-layer low pressure system and associated moisture along the mid-Atlantic coastline, and its interaction with a blocking high across Ontario and swrn Quebec. NWP suite continues to show a variety of solns, with interaction with a northern stream upper level low also a complicating factor. Blend of deterministic and ensemble mean solutions appears to be best forecast attm, which brings light precipitation into Rutland/Windsor and possibly Orange county in s-central VT, but not much further north as moisture is shunted to the east. Indicated max PoPs of 30-40% attm across s- central VT Saturday night, before decreasing PoPs during the day Sunday with current expectation that bulk of precipitation shifts to our south and east. We`ll continue to monitor these trends. Rainfall amounts attm <0.1" across s-central VT. Drier/quieter weather returns for Monday/Tuesday with a surface ridge over Quebec and a dry northerly flow. High temperatures in the mid-upper 60s are generally expected for Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Fog is beginning to lift this morning, and we`re anticipating fully VFR conditions for all sites by 14Z. Then, light northerly to northwesterly winds expected throughout the day, 4-6 knots. Attention turns next to the potential return of fog tonight, which is overall looking likely given repeat high pressure, clear skies, and light to calm winds. However, we`ll be yet another day removed from rainfall and the region is drying out, so timing of fog might be a bit displaced and fog will likely be less widespread. For this package, have 4SM at most with some hints at IFR cigs and vicinity fog. TAF for this time period will need more shaping throughout the day today as the details become clearer. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCXX radar will be down for radome repairs, with a return to service around September 21st. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Storm NEAR TERM...Storm SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Storm EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.