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024
FXUS61 KBTV 221114
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
714 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The combination of exiting high pressure and an approaching low
pressure system will provide the North Country with increasing
clouds and well above normal temperatures through tonight. An upper
trough moving east from the Great Lakes will bring numerous showers
Monday and Tuesday, along with the chance for a few rumbles of
thunder. For Wednesday onward through the weekend, every other day
will feature chances for rain, starting with high pressure and dry
conditions Wednesday, and scattered showers Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...It`s the last day of summer, and it will
surely feel like it with south/southwesterly flow increasing
markedly between exiting high pressure and an approaching upper
trough. After morning fog burns off, mid clouds will increase from
west to east through the day with a mainly dry but mostly cloudy day
expected. I say mainly because the 00Z hi-res model suite remained
consistent with the 12Z runs showing the potential for a few
convective showers across northern New York during the early
afternoon hours. Activity should be fairly isolated so outdoor plans
won`t be ruined and Vermont locales should remain dry. Yesterday we
saw highs go above guidance in the upper 70s to low 80s, and
following that trend today, highs will be even warmer in the low to
mid 80s area-wide. While this is a good 15-20 degrees above normal,
it`s nothing record setting as most records for the day are closer
to 90. Gusty winds are also on tap for today as a modest low level
jet of 25-40kts at 925mb works in. Highest winds will be closer to
the jet core up the St. Lawrence Valley in the 25-35mph range, with
a general 15-25 mph elsewhere.

For tonight, dry weather is expected with skies breaking to partly
cloudy but modest winds of 10-20 mph will keep temps well above
normal in the mid/upper 60s. Dewpoints will hold in the 60s as well,
making for a slightly muggy night. On Monday, the well advertised
upper trough shifting into the Great Lakes looks to begin to cutoff
and occlude with numerous showers developing during the mid-day to
afternoon hours along the occlusion. Latest guidance indicates some
weak instability in the 250-500 j/kg range will be around supporting
a more convective nature to the showers and even the chance of a few
rumbles of thunder. QPF should be rather light, especially in the
downslope regions with only a general 0.1-0.2" expected. Highs will
remain above normal, but tempered from the previous day and only in
the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...Monday night into Tuesday will see the
upper trough close off to our northwest. Main circulation center
will move from southwest Quebec Monday night to western Maine late
Tuesday afternoon. Areal coverage of showers associated with the
upper low will be isolated to scattered Monday night with dynamic
forcing being the main contributing factor to the precipitation. On
Tuesday low level lapse rates will steepen and the combination of
instability and dynamic forcing should result in increased areal
coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday
will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s...which will be a few degrees
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...Looking like a rather progressive pattern
in the extended. Showers come to an end Tuesday night as upper low
moves far enough east and ridging builds in for Wednesday. Looking
at dry weather for Wednesday along with a return to seasonal normals
for high temperatures. An upper trough will move across eastern
Canada on Thursday and this will bring a chance of showers to much
of the area with highs in the 60s to around 70...very similar to
readings on Wednesday. That trough moves out of the area Thursday
night...which helps to bring an end to the showers...and high
pressure builds in for Friday with dry weather expected and highs
once again in the 60s to around 70. Another upper trough will move
into the region later on Saturday and thus looking at increasing
precipitation chances later on Saturday and especially Saturday
night. High temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees above
normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Outside of lingering VLIFR fog at KMPV and
other eastern Vermont airports through 14Z, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. Mid clouds advance west to
east across the region this morning becoming BKN-OVC by the
afternoon. Could see a few spotty showers across northern New
York mid-day to early afternoon, but shouldn`t impact flight
conditions. Other concern will be increasing south/southwesterly
winds which will become gusty during the mid-morning to late
afternoon hours from the Champlain Valley westward. Strongest
gusts in the 25-30kt range will be at KMSS, with 15-20kts at
KBTV and KSLK. Gusts tail off towards 00Z but winds will remain
in the 8-12kt range with ceilings SCT-BKN VFR for the night.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Scattered SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Scattered
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff