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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281424
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the North Country will bring another day of
dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and above normal
temperatures. A noticeable change will take place tonight as
precipitation chances increase overnight as a warm front
approaches the area. A large upper level low pressure system
will then move slowly eastward out of the Great Lakes and into
the northeast United States Sunday and Monday. Thus you can
expect an extended period of wet weather across the entire area.
The majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain,
but areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont could see some
freezing rain and snow Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1024 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast for today remains in
pretty good shape with only some minor adjustments needed to sky
cover and temps. Mid/high clouds are racing in across the
region and based on area webcams the sun is mostly blocked to
the west with some filtered sunshine across eastern areas.
Expect this clouds cover to gradually thicken through the day
which will limit the amount of insolation heating and thus,
have dropped high temps a couple of degrees for this afternoon,
though overall still looking at mostly low 50s. Otherwise, no
precip is expected for today with light winds. Enjoy!

Previous Discussion...
Expect a good start to the weekend with high pressure over the
area today. There will be some increasing high clouds, but we
should still see a good deal of sunshine and no precipitation is
expected. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures today and a very dry
air mass over the area suggests we should be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday. Thus looking at highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.

Flow aloft begins to back to the southwest tonight in advance
of a large upper level low pressure system moving into the Upper
Midwest. This will bring a warm front and deeper moisture into
the region and overnight precipitation should become widespread
over the area. Feel temperatures over much of the area will be
above freezing and thus expecting precipitation mainly in the
form of rain. Forecast soundings show pronounced warm nose
moving over the area, but areas east of the Greens will see
temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. The Northeast
Kingdom of Vermont will be the area most likely to see these
colder surface temperatures and thus the potential for some
freezing rain will exist. Where freezing rain will be most
noticeable will be across the mountaintops. With the warm
temperatures during the day today ground temperatures will warm
as well and this could actually limit impacts from any freezing
rain in the lower elevations. This is definitely not a classic
freezing rain pattern where cold air damming develops near the
surface. Temperatures will be hovering right around the freezing
mark. Will not issue an advisory at this time, however will
issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential for
freezing rain.

As mentioned earlier widespread precipitation will be across the
area on Sunday with most locations picking up a half to three
quarters of an inch of rain. This will lead to rises on area
rivers and streams. Snowpack is confined to the highest
elevations and thus additional runoff from snowmelt may not be
significant enough to cause flooding issues at this time.
However the situation will be monitored. Highs on Sunday will
range from the upper 30s to around 40 east of the Green
Mountains and in the mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday night and Monday will see
the upper level low move right over the area. While there might
be a few breaks in the precipitation sufficient dynamic support
will exist for widespread showers across the entire area during
this time period. Additional rainfall is expected during this
time period with another quarter to half inch possible. This
will lead to additional rises on area waterways. We start to
lose the warm layer of air aloft on Monday and this will help to
bring snowmelt to an end, but will likely change some of the
precipitation over to snow, especially over the higher terrain
and east of the Greens for some minor snow accumulations. Highs
on Monday will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Showery weather is expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning as a cold core upper level low
situates across the North Country. With cold air advection
noticeable in the mid and upper levels, any chances of mixed
precipitation will be non- existent as thermal profiles will be
either below freezing through the entire column or below
freezing through the entire column except at the surface. This
should yield generally elevational dependent snow showers with
rainfall likely at the lower elevations. Precipitation rates
during the time frame will be fairly light but we will hold onto
PWAT values near 0.5 inches. Any snow accumulations Monday
night into Tuesday morning should be less than an inch and and
snow that does fall will change over to rain Tuesday morning as
temperatures warm above freezing.

The weather pattern becomes rather complicated this upcoming week as
we remain under a longwave trough with several reinforcing upper
level lows dropping out of Canada to help amplify the upper level
trough across the northeastern US. While no one particular day looks
to be dry, no one particular day looks to be a washout. With colder
air in the mid and upper levels, diurnally driven "instability"
showers look probable. We have included a lot of 30-40 percent PoPs
through the extended period to account for these diurnal showers.
Nevertheless, temperatures should hover right around seasonal
normals through the upcoming week with highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through this evening. Rainfall will move into the North
country between 07Z and 10Z with MVFR ceilings developing as the
rainfall begins to fall. Visibilities will likely be reduced to
3-4 miles during the rainfall on Sunday with the potential for
some isolated IFR conditions after 12Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: MVFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Clay