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000
FXUS61 KBTV 081856
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
256 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure continues across the area tonight with
mainly fair weather expected. A few showers and perhaps a stray
storm or two will be possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday
evening, mainly across central and northern counties with the
passage of a weak upper disturbance. Temperatures will generally
remain warm well into next week with the next chance of
widespread showers and storms occurring later Tuesday into
Tuesday evening ahead of an approaching weak front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Saturday...Mainly fair and quiet conditions
are expected this evening/tonight under weak high pressure and
light winds. An isolated early evening shower or storm will be
possible as lingering slope flows and/or the Lake Champlain lake
breeze foster localized moisture convergence but most areas
will remain dry overnight. Lows seasonable from 55 to 65 with
patchy fog or mist, most prevalent in eastern VT
valleys/hollows.

Some modest changes to the forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as most
guidance has trended more bullish on scattered shower/stray storm
chances with the passage of another trough in mid and upper levels.
PVA and moisture convergence ahead of an embedded vorticity maximum
in the base of the trough should be enough to pull more clouds
across central/northern counties over time with an increasing threat
of scattered showers, mainly north of Route 4 by afternoon and
evening. Instability is meager given poor mid to upper level lapse
rates, so thunder chances will be capped at slight chance or less.
High temperatures will be warmest south (lower to mid 80s) where
higher coverage of sunshine will be realized. Further north I eased
back on values by 2-4 degrees (upper 70s to lower 80s) with more
variable cloud cover expected.

Showers then taper off Sunday night as upper trough pulls east under
clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows mainly from the upper 50s to
upper 60s under light southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Saturday...Aforementioned upper trough exits
east of the region early Monday morning with a weak upper ridge
over the eastern Great Lakes poised to track over the North
Country during the afternoon and evening hours. The result will
be tranquil conditions through the period with clearing skies
through the day/night. Monday will begin a brief warming trend
back above normal with increasing humidity and dewpoints back
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. 925mb temps of +20- 22C support
highs in the mid/upper 80s and increasing south/southwesterly
flow will provide milder overnight temps only falling into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Saturday...Deep southwest flow becomes
established over the forecast area Tuesday ahead a weak
shortwave trough and surface boundary progged to track into the
region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this feature heat
and humidity persists with 925mb temps perhaps a degree or two
higher than Monday supporting highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. With dewpoints the mid 60s to lower 70s, sufficient
instability will be present during peak heating into the evening
hours to support shower and thunderstorms development, mainly
across central and northern zones. With the loss of diurnal
heating though the thunderstorm threat will wane after sunset,
but the surface boundary will stall over the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday night before shifting southeast
Thursday. Not much dynamical support aloft during this period so
precipitation will be more diurnally and instability driven but
can`t rule out showers during the overnight hours either with a
moist boundary layer present. Temps Tuesday night through
Thursday night remain above normal with highs ranging through
the 80s, warmest Weds, and lows in the mid/upper 60s.

Drier conditions look to return Friday into Saturday as high
pressure settles over the Canadian maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period. SCT/SKC
conds expected through 07Z with cumulus bases in the 050-080 AGL
range. An isolated shower/storm possible through 01Z across
elevated terrain, but paucity of coverage warrants no mention in
the terminal forecasts at this time. SCT/BKN mainly mid-level
cigs in the 070-150 AGL then arrive after 07Z Sunday with an
outside shot of a shower at KMSS after 14Z. Some brief MVFR/IFR
br/fg possible at KMPV/KSLK in the 07-12Z time frame but
confidence only moderate. Winds generally variable and less
than 10 kts through the period, governed heavily by terrain
and/or lake breeze flows.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...JMG