Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230914 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 414 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong warm front lifting across the North Country today will produce a period of wintry precipitation, along with gusty south to southwest winds. The wintry precipitation will change to a cold rain overnight with pockets of freezing rain, as temperatures warm into the 30s. On Thursday, occasional rain will prevail in the morning, before changing to a period of wet accumulating snowfall during the afternoon hours, as temperatures drop back into the 20s by evening. Much colder temperatures arrive for the weekend with chances for additional snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 358 AM EST Wednesday...Winter wx advisory continues for mixed precipitation thru 06z tonight for entire cwa. 24 hour temp changes show readings are 30 to 40 degrees warmer this morning as strong low level waa continues on gusty south to southwest winds. Forecast challenge includes ptype/thermal profiles and winds along with associated impacts thru Thursday. This system is much more complex and challenging as initial sfc low pres tracks thru the central Great Lakes placing our cwa well in the warm sector. Water vapor shows abundant deep sub-tropical moisture with cooling cloud tops advecting north ahead of full latitude mid/upper level trof across the central Conus. First wave of enhanced moisture will be associated with initial sfc low pres and strong low/mid lvl waa moving from sw to ne across parts of our cwa today. This will produce an initial band of snow from northern NY into northern VT this morning, with accumulations mainly a dusting to 2 inches, except localized 3 inches possible in the SLV. Strong 925mb to 850mb jet of 45 to 55 knots, will limit qpf/snowfall across the cpv. Have mainly chc pops with likely/cat pops slv/dacks into northern VT. Localized travel impacts will be mainly confined to northern NY this morning. Soundings support localized gusty winds, especially cpv with gusts btwn 30 and 40 mph likely, along with some areas of blowing snow. Temps will warm into the 30s most locations, except upper 20s east of the Greens. Tonight, additional rounds of mainly a cold rain is anticipated as deep layer moisture continues to advect across our cwa with pw values approaching 0.75". However very cold ground temps from recent arctic airmass will cause areas of rain to freeze on roadways, sidewalks, and parking lots, creating areas of very slippery travel, even with sfc temps well into the 30s. Given the lack of caa signatures in the pres fields and sfc high pres to our east and not northeast, expect thermal profiles at all levels to warm quickly, except at the sfc. Very difficult to determine when ground/pavement temps warm enough, if they ever do to for just plain rain. I would anticipate slippery travel this evening and again on Thursday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds continue with localized gusts near 40 mph likely in the cpv/slv and parts of the dacks. Widespread rainfall will range from 0.25 to 0.50, with ice accumulation on tree limbs and power lines generally less than a tenth of an inch. Thursday, guidance in good agreement with weak wave developing along boundary which will enhance precipitation across our cwa. Initial thermal profiles support a cold rain with temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s, however still anticipate pockets of icy travel due to very cold ground/pavement temps in the morning. Meanwhile, as sfc low pres lifts north of cwa, winds will shift to the west/northwest and llvl caa develops. Following progged 850mb 0c line supports rain changing to snow across the dacks btwn 12z-15z, northern Greens by 18z and entire cwa by 00z. A period of wet snow accumulation is likely from west to east on Thursday, with generally snowfall amounts of dusting to 2 inches valleys and 2 to 4 inches mountains above 1500 feet. Given the timing of change over and temps falling below freezing, anticipating another challenging evening commute. Total qpf will range btwn 0.50 to 1.0 across our cwa by 00z Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...A persistent upper level trough will push a small surface low through the North Country leading to snow showers across the region. There`s modest shallow instability and some strong mixing so there`s some potential for some stronger snow showers to develop but I`m not currently feeling that we should see any snow squalls. The deep mixing will lead to gusty winds over the Saint Lawrence Valley with gusts of 25-30kts through the morning hours ahead of a surface front. Behind the surface front cold air makes a quick return to the North Country and will usher in the potential for lake effect snow across northern New York. Right now its tough to tell timing and location because the flow aloft looks pretty sheared. Thats showing up in the simulated reflectivity fields as there doesn`t seem to be an organized band until late and by that time its south of Saint Lawrence County. The 12z and 18z suite had clearer definition of a band but this mornings 00z suite backed off on the band being prolonged in any one location. We`ll have to continue to monitor the potential for the band to lift north but for the moment we should be spectators on the highest intensity portion. Temps fall quickly overnight on Friday and we`ll see a return of sub zero lows. Expect teens to single digits below zero with wind chills as low as -15F to -20F. Saturday may end up being a bit of a lull in the active weather. Weak high pressure tries to build in as we sit under partly cloudy skies with temps only warming into the teens above zero. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...Active weather continues in the extended as another low pressure system will track to our west. We should see scattered snow showers with the potential for some squalls on Sunday night. The thermal gradient is impressive as we drop 10-15 degrees C at 850mb. We may see a brief lull on Monday into Monday evening as the upper level trough finally pulls east however another Saint Lawrence system looks on deck bring more widespread precip heading into the middle of the week. Temps generally remain near normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits to teens above zero. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Challenging aviation forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours with multiple hazardous, including ptype, vis/cigs, winds and associated shear/turbulence. All sites crntly vfr with increasing clouds and winds. Expect light snow to develop at mss by 09z with ifr conditions, which will spread toward slk by sunrise. In addition, developing low level jet of 40 to 50 knots will produce areas of shear, especially across northern NY sites this morning. These winds will help to keep conditions mainly vfr at pbg/rut/btv thru 18z, before a wintry mix arrives with vis/cigs trending toward mvfr btwn 18z-00z. Similar conditions are expected at MPV, while occasional light snow mixed with sleet occurs at mss/slk with ifr prevailing. As warmer air develops mixed precip will change to a cold rain by 00z with areas of freezing rain likely with runaway icing possible, given very cold ground temps. These conditions prevail overnight into Thursday, with strong low level wind shear and areas of turbulence, especially near trrn. Expect MVFR conditions to trend toward ifr by 06z at many sites. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Chance SN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ026>031- 034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber

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