Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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624 FXUS61 KBTV 070008 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 708 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Steady light snow will rapidly taper off to flurries this evening as a clipper system shifts east of the North Country. A few flurries will remain possible into Saturday with snow showers across higher summits. Mainly dry and colder weather arrives in the wake of this system Saturday afternoon before temperatures rebound nicely by this coming Sunday. The milder trend continues into early next week with increasing chances for rainfall by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Cold conditions return for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 622 PM EST Friday...Forcing for ascent, including 850-700mb frontogenesis, is rapidly shifting east of VT early this evening. This will allow steady light snow to taper off to flurries by 01-02Z. Please see recently issued Public Information Statement for today`s snow reports. Cold air will begin advecting into the region overnight, and we should see temps fall into the upper single digits to lower teens. For Saturday, upslope flurries and mountain snow showers continue, but will continue to decay, especially as flow becomes unblocked during the afternoon hours and the backside of an upper trough swings east later Saturday evening. Lower thickness advection under the trough will keep temps in the upper teens to mid 20s for the afternoon with cold conditions overnight. We will start to pick up a bit of southerly winds from increasing pressure gradients as surface high pressure quickly shifts east. Expect single digits to near 10 for lows on Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 321 PM EST Friday...1034mb high pres shifts off the southern New England Coast on Sunday as 925mb to 850mb low level jet of 45 to 50 knots develops and strong llvl waa occurs. Soundings indicating breezy conditions developing across northern NY into the CPV, where channeled flow will enhance the gusty winds. Localized gusts to 35 to 40 mph is possible. Meanwhile, ribbon of better 850 to 500mb rh will be lifting from southwest to northeast, along with some weak embedded 5h energy, which will be supported by waa lift, produce a period of light precip. Mainly rain showers anticipated in the slv/cpv, but cold bl temps and ground temps will support mention of some pockets of freezing rain, especially east of the Greens. Any ice accumulation will be light, but some slippery travel is expected on Sunday Night into early Monday. Temps warm into the mid 20s to mid 30s aft a cold start on Sunday and continue to warm overnight Sunday into Monday, with southerly winds and precip/cloud. Lows generally in the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s with temps warming overnight with highs upper 30s to upper 40s on Monday. The best forcing associated with weak boundary and deep moisture will be located over our western cwa on Monday, while brisk southwest flow of 50 knots at 850mb will limit qpf/pops across the cpv. Have tried to show enhanced pops/qpf over the High Peaks/northern VT. Breezy to gusty winds will continue, especially across the summits and aligned south to north valleys on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 321 PM EST Friday...Long wave pattern shows mid/upper level ridge across the eastern Conus breaking down as potent short wave trof deepens over the central Great Lakes. Sfc low pres will track from the Ohio Valley into the northern Great Lakes on Monday Night into Tuesday, while a sharp cold front crosses our fa. The combination of strong llvl convergence, good moisture advection with pws around 0.75" and favorable dynamics with 5h energy/trof will produce a period of showers associated with fropa late Monday Night into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts look to range from 0.25 to 0.75 with localized near 1.0 totals possible over the high peaks. Once again, downslope southwest winds of up to 50 knots will produce the cpv shadowing in the qpf fields. Temps will be following a non diurnal trend, with steady or rising temps on Monday Night ahead of fropa, while sharp boundary results in falling temps during the aftn on Tuesday, especially northern NY/higher trrn. The potential for a flash freeze will need to be watched during this time period as temps will fall sharply behind boundary, but amount of leftover moisture and how quickly pavement cools/drys is very much uncertain attm. Progged 925mb temps warm 6 to 8c ahead of boundary by 12z Tues, before dropping back to -4c to -6c by 00z Weds, supporting potential flash freeze. Thinking lows Monday Night m/u 30s nek to mid 40s cpv, with highs tues mid 40s to lower 50s, before dropping back toward freezing during the aftn hours, except mid 20s dacks. Any linger rain showers will change back to snow showers behind boundary, but limited moisture and lift will result in minimal accumulation. Secondary boundary with additional s/w energy and moisture arrive acrs our cwa on Weds. This combined with some lake enhanced moisture, thinking snow showers and potential snow squalls are possible. Have continued with high chc/low likely pops with highs mainly in the upper teens to mid/upper 20s. 1040mb high pres builds back into our cwa on Thurs into Friday with drier but chilly weather anticipated. Highs mainly mid teens to mid 20s with lows single digits to near 10f, but much colder if clear skies and light winds can develop during this time period. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Steady light snow will taper off before ending at MPV and RUT by 02Z while light snow at BTV will diminish within the next hour. Otherwise, continued low cloud cover will yield mostly MVFR conditions at these TAF sites as well as at SLK, while VFR conditions will prevail at MSS and PBG tonight with more scattered clouds and higher ceilings. All sites should be VFR tomorrow through the evening, although MVFR conditions may linger at BTV and SLK (due to ceilings between 2000 and 3000 feet) through 20Z. A shift from northwest to westerly and southwesterly winds will occur at SLK and MSS, respectively, towards daybreak, but elsewhere little change in winds through the next 24 hours. Wind speeds will remain light at under 10 knots. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance FZRA, Slight chance RA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Likely FZRA. Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Kutikoff

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