Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270521 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and quieter weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure moving over the North Country. A few lake effect snow showers will be possible over the northern Adirondacks on Tuesday but areal coverage is expected to be very limited. The remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta will move across southern New England Thursday night into Friday and will bring a chance for rain and snow to the southern half of Vermont. The coldest air mass of the season thus far will follow Friday night but temperatures are expected to moderate to near normal values by the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1031 PM EDT Monday...Moisture is moving east of the area tonight, and cold air will be filtering in overnight. Will have just a chance for a snow shower as precipitation comes to an end across the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. Have dropped the lake wind advisory as winds have weakened following the frontal passage. Clouds sticking around through the overnight will keep temperatures from dropping too drastically. Previous discussion follows. The thick blanket of cloud cover we have seen overhead today likely won`t begin to lift and dissipate until daybreak on Tuesday which will cap our overnight lows in the 30s. High pressure building across the region should help break up the junky clouds and allow for a little bit of sunlight tomorrow but it`s going to feel like a late fall day as high temps max out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A 7- 12 mph steady northwesterly wind won`t help at all tomorrow where wind chill values will likely hover around the freezing mark throughout the day. By the late afternoon/early evening hours, it looks like our low level flow will back to the west/southwest which could help a few lake effect rain/snow showers to impact the northern Adirondacks but areal coverage should be very minimal given the low fetch across Lake Ontario. Much cooler temperatures will be in store for the region Tuesday night as partly to mostly clear skies couple with light winds allow temps to drop into the low 20s to low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Monday...High pressure slides to our south Wednesday and Wednesday night while we remain under fast zonal flow aloft. A couple of upper shortwaves will scoot through this flow during this period, skirting along or just north of the international border, along with a strengthening jet. This combined with a ribbon of increased moisture will allow for a few light rain/snow showers late Wednesday through Wednesday night, mainly over the higher terrain. The aforementioned jet will also make for breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon, especially in the St Lawrence Valley where southwest winds will be channeled up the valley. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, followed by overnight lows in the lower 30s to around 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Monday...The focus for the long term continues to be a low pressure system which will lift from the Deep South northeastward Thursday and move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will build south from Canada, helping to keep the bulk of the low pressure system shunted to our south. The result will be a tight precipitation gradient on the north side of the precipitation shield, and the latest model guidance has shown a slight southward trend in where this gradient will lie. Hence, southern portions of our forecast area will likely see a quarter inch or more of precipitation, while northern areas will see little to nothing. Precipitation will be rain at the onset Thursday afternoon, but falling temperatures overnight will allow rain to mix with/change over to snow. A couple of inches of accumulation will be possible over portions of south central VT, with the highest accumulations over the higher terrain. Elsewhere, any snow accumulation would be less than an inch. The precipitation winds down Friday afternoon, with cold and blustery conditions to persist through the day and overnight. Friday`s highs will likely only be in the 30s in most spots, and nighttime lows will be in the teens and 20s. Dry weather prevails for the weekend as the high crests over the North Country on Saturday, then moves south on Sunday. South flow will quickly increase Sunday afternoon around the back of the high and ahead of low pressure approaching from the northern Great Lakes, so a warming trend is expected through the weekend as well. Saturday`s highs will be in the lower to mid 40s while Sunday will see temperatures topping out in the mid 40s to around 50. Precipitation chances increase as we head into early next week with the aforementioned low and its attendant front bring showers to the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs continue through 12Z, gradually lifting to a mix of VFR/MVFR through 18Z, then VFR at all terminals by 00Z Wed. Scattered light showers with brief MVFR visibility restrictions possible through 10Z at selected terminals. Additional scattered light shower activity possible at KSLK/KRUT in the 20-02Z time frame. Winds generally light north to northwesterly 4-8 kts through 20Z, trending light and variable thereafter. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...JMG

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