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624
FXUS61 KBTV 070008
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
708 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Steady light snow will rapidly taper off to flurries this
evening as a clipper system shifts east of the North Country. A
few flurries will remain possible into Saturday with snow
showers across higher summits. Mainly dry and colder weather
arrives in the wake of this system Saturday afternoon before
temperatures rebound nicely by this coming Sunday. The milder
trend continues into early next week with increasing chances for
rainfall by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Cold conditions
return for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 622 PM EST Friday...Forcing for ascent, including
850-700mb frontogenesis, is rapidly shifting east of VT early
this evening. This will allow steady light snow to taper off to
flurries by 01-02Z. Please see recently issued Public
Information Statement for today`s snow reports. Cold air will
begin advecting into the region overnight, and we should see
temps fall into the upper single digits to lower teens.

For Saturday, upslope flurries and mountain snow showers
continue, but will continue to decay, especially as flow
becomes unblocked during the afternoon hours and the backside
of an upper trough swings east later Saturday evening. Lower
thickness advection under the trough will keep temps in the
upper teens to mid 20s for the afternoon with cold conditions
overnight. We will start to pick up a bit of southerly winds
from increasing pressure gradients as surface high pressure
quickly shifts east. Expect single digits to near 10 for lows on
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 321 PM EST Friday...1034mb high pres shifts off the southern
New England Coast on Sunday as 925mb to 850mb low level jet of
45 to 50 knots develops and strong llvl waa occurs. Soundings
indicating breezy conditions developing across northern NY into
the CPV, where channeled flow will enhance the gusty winds.
Localized gusts to 35 to 40 mph is possible. Meanwhile, ribbon
of better 850 to 500mb rh will be lifting from southwest to
northeast, along with some weak embedded 5h energy, which will
be supported by waa lift, produce a period of light precip.
Mainly rain showers anticipated in the slv/cpv, but cold bl
temps and ground temps will support mention of some pockets of
freezing rain, especially east of the Greens. Any ice
accumulation will be light, but some slippery travel is expected
on Sunday Night into early Monday. Temps warm into the mid 20s
to mid 30s aft a cold start on Sunday and continue to warm
overnight Sunday into Monday, with southerly winds and
precip/cloud. Lows generally in the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s
with temps warming overnight with highs upper 30s to upper 40s
on Monday. The best forcing associated with weak boundary and
deep moisture will be located over our western cwa on Monday,
while brisk southwest flow of 50 knots at 850mb will limit
qpf/pops across the cpv. Have tried to show enhanced pops/qpf
over the High Peaks/northern VT. Breezy to gusty winds will
continue, especially across the summits and aligned south to
north valleys on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 PM EST Friday...Long wave pattern shows mid/upper level
ridge across the eastern Conus breaking down as potent short
wave trof deepens over the central Great Lakes. Sfc low pres
will track from the Ohio Valley into the northern Great Lakes on
Monday Night into Tuesday, while a sharp cold front crosses our
fa. The combination of strong llvl convergence, good moisture
advection with pws around 0.75" and favorable dynamics with 5h
energy/trof will produce a period of showers associated with
fropa late Monday Night into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts look to
range from 0.25 to 0.75 with localized near 1.0 totals possible
over the high peaks. Once again, downslope southwest winds of up
to 50 knots will produce the cpv shadowing in the qpf fields.

Temps will be following a non diurnal trend, with steady or
rising temps on Monday Night ahead of fropa, while sharp
boundary results in falling temps during the aftn on Tuesday,
especially northern NY/higher trrn. The potential for a flash
freeze will need to be watched during this time period as temps
will fall sharply behind boundary, but amount of leftover
moisture and how quickly pavement cools/drys is very much
uncertain attm. Progged 925mb temps warm 6 to 8c ahead of
boundary by 12z Tues, before dropping back to -4c to -6c by 00z
Weds, supporting potential flash freeze. Thinking lows Monday
Night m/u 30s nek to mid 40s cpv, with highs tues mid 40s to
lower 50s, before dropping back toward freezing during the aftn
hours, except mid 20s dacks. Any linger rain showers will change
back to snow showers behind boundary, but limited moisture and
lift will result in minimal accumulation.

Secondary boundary with additional s/w energy and moisture
arrive acrs our cwa on Weds. This combined with some lake
enhanced moisture, thinking snow showers and potential snow
squalls are possible. Have continued with high chc/low likely
pops with highs mainly in the upper teens to mid/upper 20s.
1040mb high pres builds back into our cwa on Thurs into Friday
with drier but chilly weather anticipated. Highs mainly mid
teens to mid 20s with lows single digits to near 10f, but much
colder if clear skies and light winds can develop during this
time period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Steady light snow will taper off before
ending at MPV and RUT by 02Z while light snow at BTV will
diminish within the next hour. Otherwise, continued low cloud
cover will yield mostly MVFR conditions at these TAF sites as
well as at SLK, while VFR conditions will prevail at MSS and
PBG tonight with more scattered clouds and higher ceilings.
All sites should be VFR tomorrow through the evening, although
MVFR conditions may linger at BTV and SLK (due to ceilings
between 2000 and 3000 feet) through 20Z. A shift from northwest
to westerly and southwesterly winds will occur at SLK and MSS,
respectively, towards daybreak, but elsewhere little change in
winds through the next 24 hours. Wind speeds will remain light
at under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance FZRA, Slight chance RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Likely
FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff