Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 081856 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 256 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure continues across the area tonight with mainly fair weather expected. A few showers and perhaps a stray storm or two will be possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, mainly across central and northern counties with the passage of a weak upper disturbance. Temperatures will generally remain warm well into next week with the next chance of widespread showers and storms occurring later Tuesday into Tuesday evening ahead of an approaching weak front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 256 PM EDT Saturday...Mainly fair and quiet conditions are expected this evening/tonight under weak high pressure and light winds. An isolated early evening shower or storm will be possible as lingering slope flows and/or the Lake Champlain lake breeze foster localized moisture convergence but most areas will remain dry overnight. Lows seasonable from 55 to 65 with patchy fog or mist, most prevalent in eastern VT valleys/hollows. Some modest changes to the forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as most guidance has trended more bullish on scattered shower/stray storm chances with the passage of another trough in mid and upper levels. PVA and moisture convergence ahead of an embedded vorticity maximum in the base of the trough should be enough to pull more clouds across central/northern counties over time with an increasing threat of scattered showers, mainly north of Route 4 by afternoon and evening. Instability is meager given poor mid to upper level lapse rates, so thunder chances will be capped at slight chance or less. High temperatures will be warmest south (lower to mid 80s) where higher coverage of sunshine will be realized. Further north I eased back on values by 2-4 degrees (upper 70s to lower 80s) with more variable cloud cover expected. Showers then taper off Sunday night as upper trough pulls east under clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows mainly from the upper 50s to upper 60s under light southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 256 PM EDT Saturday...Aforementioned upper trough exits east of the region early Monday morning with a weak upper ridge over the eastern Great Lakes poised to track over the North Country during the afternoon and evening hours. The result will be tranquil conditions through the period with clearing skies through the day/night. Monday will begin a brief warming trend back above normal with increasing humidity and dewpoints back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. 925mb temps of +20- 22C support highs in the mid/upper 80s and increasing south/southwesterly flow will provide milder overnight temps only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 256 PM EDT Saturday...Deep southwest flow becomes established over the forecast area Tuesday ahead a weak shortwave trough and surface boundary progged to track into the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this feature heat and humidity persists with 925mb temps perhaps a degree or two higher than Monday supporting highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints the mid 60s to lower 70s, sufficient instability will be present during peak heating into the evening hours to support shower and thunderstorms development, mainly across central and northern zones. With the loss of diurnal heating though the thunderstorm threat will wane after sunset, but the surface boundary will stall over the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night before shifting southeast Thursday. Not much dynamical support aloft during this period so precipitation will be more diurnally and instability driven but can`t rule out showers during the overnight hours either with a moist boundary layer present. Temps Tuesday night through Thursday night remain above normal with highs ranging through the 80s, warmest Weds, and lows in the mid/upper 60s. Drier conditions look to return Friday into Saturday as high pressure settles over the Canadian maritimes. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period. SCT/SKC conds expected through 07Z with cumulus bases in the 050-080 AGL range. An isolated shower/storm possible through 01Z across elevated terrain, but paucity of coverage warrants no mention in the terminal forecasts at this time. SCT/BKN mainly mid-level cigs in the 070-150 AGL then arrive after 07Z Sunday with an outside shot of a shower at KMSS after 14Z. Some brief MVFR/IFR br/fg possible at KMPV/KSLK in the 07-12Z time frame but confidence only moderate. Winds generally variable and less than 10 kts through the period, governed heavily by terrain and/or lake breeze flows. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Duell LONG TERM...Duell AVIATION...JMG

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