Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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157 FXUS61 KBTV 182317 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building over the region continues to bring dry and seasonable weather through the end of the week. A chilly night is anticipated tonight with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures return to above normal values by the end of the week, along with increasing chances for rain showers by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 717 PM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast remains in great shape as we head into the evening hours. Only appreciable change was to reduce the time frame and areal coverage of mist/fog later tonight in favored river valleys/hollows of the Adirondacks and eastern VT. Perusal of data suggests most spots will have trouble reaching crossover T thresholds and with only marginally supportive hydrolapse rates feel that coverage will be fairly minimal. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Large ridge of surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the North Country overnight, and crest over the area on Thursday during the daytime hours. This results in dry and quiet weather for our area through the near term. Tonight we will have clear skies and light winds, and temps will drop quickly following sunset. With sharp low level thermal inversions in the coldest pockets of the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom, the coldest spots will drop into the upper 30s. Most of our area will have low temps bottoming out on the mid 40s to mid 50s, around 60 closer to Lake Champlain. Some spots should still hit cross over despite afternoon dewpoints dropping into the 30s now, especially Saranac Lake area. Think it will generally be some patchy fog in some of the typically fog prone spots. Dry weather will continue on Thursday with almost a repeat day of today. Surface high will crest overhead on Thursday, so winds will be a bit lighter than Wed. Anticipate mostly sunny skies Thursday, generally upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday night will also be dry and clear, with mainly light winds. High pressure begins to slide eastward though, so not as cold as tonight, temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will continue to be the primary influence for Friday`s weather with dry conditions prevailing. Thicknesses will continue to rise and 925mb temps will climb to about 23C. This will translate to high temperatures in the upper 80s across the St. Lawrence/Champlain Valley with 80s elsewhere, excepting the higher mountain areas where highs will be in the 70s. Friday night lows will be warmer than Thursday night as southerly winds slowly increase the dewpoint. Expect lows in 50s across the Adirondacks and in the Northeast Kingdom and upper 50s/lower 60s across the valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 332 PM EDT Wednesday...After another dry day on Saturday, high pressure will begin to yield to a large upper low digging from the Dakotas into the Ohio River Valley. Heights will begin to fall as the upper low approaches, but the upper low begins to meander as it becomes cut-off. Forecast depictions of the dynamical tropopause beautifully show the stratospheric air and the associated PV anomaly induce stronger southerly flow ahead of the upper low and influence the development of a surface feature along the east coast. The upper low weakens into an open wave as it barely moves across the area with our CWA also positioned at the periphery of an anomalously strong Bermuda High. This will lead to an enhanced stream of moisture with disturbances cycling northward ahead of the upper low. The first passes nearby on Sunday with a surface feature and a warm front that gets dragged northward. Some uncertainty regarding this feature remains with the latest GFS, ICON, and FV3 runs sending the disturbance further eastward, which will likely keep the best precipitation chances to our east with the initial surge of moisture. Not much instability is currently forecast with the first system on Sunday with the main forcing mechanism being the developing warm front and isentropic upglide. So no mention of thunder there for now. From there, the unsettled weather pattern will continue through at least Wednesday with the weakening upper trough replaced by a new upper trough, helping to maintain moist, southwesterly flow. There will be some instability, so storms can be expected Monday through Wednesday, with the greater chances during the daylight hours. Temperatures will remain above average, especially overnight low temperatures. Somewhat cooler conditions are expected Sunday as southeasterly flow brings in some cooler maritime air and a warm front is lifted northward. Temperatures will then warm again Monday with Tuesday and Wednesday looking similar to Monday. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Prevailing high pressure will maintain VFR and generally SKC all terminals. Only exception could be brief nocturnal fog at MPV/SLK; carried tempo groups for 1SM BR at those two sites only, from 07-11Z Thursday. Winds will become light and variable after sunset. At BTV, will see winds become 260-280deg around 7kt after 15Z and persisting thru the daylight hrs on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...JMG/Neiles SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Banacos

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