Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 152122 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 422 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A winter storm will bring widespread moderate to heavy snow to the North Country from tonight through early Friday afternoon. Expected snow totals will range from 5 to 10 inches through mid day on Friday with another round of light snow Friday night and Saturday. Quiet weather returns on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Low pressure forming off the coast of North Carolina will phase with low over southern Indiana overnight then lift along the east coast and be centered near NYC Friday morning. Widespread snow will lift into our region after about 8pm. Front edge of the snow is currently in a line from Rochester to Binghamton to Poughkeepsie. Snow spreads north across our area and will be heaviest between 1 - 7 am. This will make the Friday morning commute very messy. At times we may have 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates as a mesoband lifts across the area. Snow ratios will range from about 9-12:1 initially in the warm air advection burst of snow and then will switch to 13-15:1 once low pulls to the northeast Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Low will continue to lift northeastward towards Nova Scotia by about 00z Saturday. As the low lifts away, synoptic snowfall comes to an end during Friday afternoon. Snowfall totals from the storm will range from 5 to 10 inches, lowest in the Saint Lawrence Valley and Western Rutland Counties. Some areas will see upwards of a foot of snow, especially in the higher elevations and wherever the mesoband sets up. This will likely lead to some isolated power outages and will certainly make travel difficult especially during the Friday morning commute. The highest qpf totals fall from around 6-12z where region wide we`ll be looking at between 0.25-0.5" of liquid equivalent. At this time most models indicating that dry slot and warm nose should remain to our south and east. If the dry slot does make it into our area, could have some lower amounts especially in Southern Vermont. As the low pulls off to our northeast we will have some wrap around snow showers beginning during Friday evening. There won`t be a real clean break between the snow from the low pressure system, then the snow from upper level energy moving across the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EST Thursday...Flow aloft will be westerly Friday night with a shortwave trough moving across southern Quebec and northern New England. This will allow for additional light precipitation but upslope flow will enhance precipitation across northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. Eventually the upslope flow will relax after midnight Friday night and the areal coverage of the precipitation should decrease. Mountains will pick up another couple of inches as a result of the upslope flow. Plenty of cloud cover will persist Friday night for lows only falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Westerly flow continues on Saturday for highs in the 30s to around 40 with a chance for some showers...especially in the mountains. Secondary arctic front will push across the area Saturday evening and with steep low level lapse rates could see some snow squall activity. High pressure builds in Saturday night for drier weather as precipitation comes to an end. Colder air moves in with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 356 PM EST Thursday...Still looking at a relatively unsettled extended period but no major systems expected and below normal temperatures through the entire period. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s with lows in the low teens to around 20...certainly continuing the cold trend of this November. Ridging out west will keep much of the US poised under a broad upper level trough with continued unsettled weather through next week. Surface high pressure builds in on Sunday, but upper level troughing and NW winds will keep passing clouds around, especially across the high terrain of the Adirondacks. Snow showers may be possible across the high peaks, but expect accumulations to be limited and confined to these areas. Moisture increases Monday as two pieces of energy pass by the area. Best chances for precipitation will be showers across the northern tier and southern areas, with central Vermont in the in between zones. Behind this front, cold air from Canada brings another push of well below average temperatures. Conditions look to be similar to what we`ve been experience these past two days with high temperatures in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens. Moderating (but still below normal) temperatures and quiet weather continues to be the early trends for Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will exist through 02z then ceilings will lower into the MVFR and IFR categories between 02z and 06z. IFR/LIFR ceilings will then persist over the area after 06z through the remainder of the period. The lower ceilings are in response to snow moving into the region between 02z and 06z...but visibilities will still be in the MVFR and VFR categories. After 06z steadier snow develops and looking at visibilities lowering into the 1 to 3 mile range for the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for VTZ001>010-012- 016>019. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for VTZ011. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ028>031-034- 035. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ026-027- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Evenson/Neiles LONG TERM...LaRocca AVIATION...Evenson

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