Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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993 FXUS61 KBTV 181401 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1001 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend along with a long awaited break in humidity. A few showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday, but dry weather generally prevails into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 959 AM EDT Thursday...Nothing much to report. Mainly tweaked the arrival of clouds associated with wrap around moisture in the upper trough to our north and slightly advanced the timing of embedded sprinkles within across northern New York. Much quieter weather for the next several days remains the theme. Previous discussion...After several days of humid and showery weather with rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain, we`re finally catching a break for the end of the work week. The cold front has exited to our south and east early this morning, bringing showers to an end and allowing at least some partially clearing skies. Patchy fog will dissipate after sunrise, but expect clouds to increase by early afternoon as an upper shortwave swings overhead. Moisture is pretty limited and surface ridging will be taking hold, so don`t anticipate anything beyond a few sprinkles with the trough. Highs will be seasonable, in the mid 70s to mid 80s, but with dew points gradually falling through the day, it`ll definitely be a far more comfortable day than what we`ve experienced lately. The ridge continues to build into the region tonight and Friday, keeping skies mostly clear and the weather fair. We`ll see another round of valley fog tonight, along with perfect sleeping weather. Be sure to crack open those windows as temperatures will drop into the 50s areawide, with some of the usual colder locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom likely seeing 40s overnight. Friday will feature lots of sunshine, fairly light winds, and highs very similar to today, along with continued lower humidity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...Quiet weather is expected Friday night into Saturday morning with high pressure remaining entrenched across the North Country. A cold front will drop south out of Canada Saturday afternoon which should help spark some scattered shower activity across the region. Model soundings show some shallow instability but a capping inversion around 15 kft is expected to prevent any thunderstorms. With the parent low well north of the International Border, shower activity along the frontal boundary will weaken into the evening hours as the cold front shears apart. Although we will see the passage of a "cold front", overnight lows will remain mild Saturday night as cloud cover should prevent radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...Sunday will be the nicest day of the weekend, although the whole weekend is looking much better than those of late. Following the frontal passage on Saturday, high temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs generally into the 70s although southern Vermont could see places hit the mid to possibly even upper 80s. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s so it`s going to feel downright pleasant outside. An isolated afternoon shower cannot be ruled out but it;s nothing to really be concerned about. The aforementioned cold front will begin to lift back northward as a warm front on Tuesday which will help increase rain chances as we head into the middle of the upcoming week. By Wednesday, PWATs are expected to surge back to the 1.5" to 1.7" range which could lead to both some thunderstorm activity and the potential for heavy rain. The good news is there isn`t any synoptic forcing to really get anything organized outside of the frontal boundary lifting northward. Taking a look at some of the ensemble data, some locations could see upwards of an inch of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday but the overall thinking is less than a half of an inch for most locations. We will watch this closely but it doesn`t have the makings of a flooding event at this time. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions should mostly prevail through the TAF period. The exception will be IFR/LIFR in patchy fog, mainly at KSLK/KMPV 08z-12z Friday. Otherwise, FEW- SCT skies expected through the day as fair weather cumulus develops during the afternoon with cloud bases around 4000 ft; these will dissipate after sunset. NW winds pick up to 8-10 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible through the daylight hours, then becoming light and terrain-driven. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Hastings