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000
FXUS61 KBTV 061243
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low remains anchored over Newfoundland through
early Sunday morning, temperatures remain 10-15 degrees below
seasonal normals through the weekend while remaining mainly dry.
A significant warm up is expected next week with temperatures
warming several degrees each day. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday and Thursday before the
next frontal system approaches the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 658 AM EST Saturday...Clouds hanging tough over the region
this morning with just some breaks in the valleys and across
Southern Vermont. Some higher clouds also moving in too. May not
see as much sun as we had anticipated this morning, and should
have increasing clouds the rest of the day. No big changes for
the 630 am update.

This weekend will feature quiet and cold weather. Upper level
low over Newfoundland will remain parked through early Sunday
morning. Will have several waves of moisture drop south across
our area, bringing mainly an increase in clouds but also some
light mountain snow showers,especially in western facing slopes
of Dacks and Greens as flow is largely out of the west. Maximum
temperatures today will struggle to get out of the teens and
lower 20s, this is about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal
normals. Will see some peaks of sun here and there, but a
general increase in cloudiness during the day as waves of
moisture and shortwave energy cross the area this afternoon. For
tonight and Sunday a large ridge of surface high pressure will
begin to slide eastward towards our region shutting down any
remaining chances for light mountain snow showers. Temperatures
will be cold overnight, especially towards early morning when we
may have some breaks in the cloud cover headed towards early
Sunday morning. Minimum temperatures will mainly be in the
single digits above and below zero. Another cooler than normal
day is anticipated for Sunday with highs reaching the upper
teens through lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM EST Saturday...A cold start to the week as
temperatures will be in the single digits above and below zero
Monday morning around the area. High pressure will be moving
into the area which will lead to a quiet day with minimal cloud
cover most of the day. As the ridge axis shifts east during the
day, some warmer air will move in allowing most of the region to
see daytime temps in the lower 30s. Cloud cover will increase
during the afternoon as an upper shortwave approaches from the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 324 AM EST Saturday...Overall, the longer term will see a
period of warming conditions for the rest of the week. Before
that begins a weak shortwave trough moves through the early
morning hours on Tuesday and looks to bring maybe a few flakes
across the area. Models disagree on if the bulk of the
precipitation stays across the international border, but either
way this looks to be a rather minor event. The next ridge moves
in Wednesday morning as the main push of warmer weather moves
in. 850mb temperatures reach above 0C for the first time this
year as strong southwest flow brings in the warmest air the
region has seen since last Dec. The warming trend will continue
into Thursday and early Friday as low pressure moves in from the
west. Showers will develop Thursday and continue into Thursday
night with the frontal passage. Models still are not in
agreement of how quickly the precipitation moves through.
Despite this, the concern still remains through Friday for the
potential for river ice break up, as thawing degree hours for
the Wed-Fri timeframe look to exceed 500 hours across much of
the forecast area, leading to significant snowmelt. The question
will be rainfall amounts, especially since the GFS has been
indicating over the past few runs that there might be two or
three rounds of rain. Snowmelt alone would likely not be enough
to result in ice movement, but additional rainfall might be,
especially the wetter GFS solution. We will continue to monitor
model trends as we draw nearer to the time of most concern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Relatively quiet TAF forecast as most
terminals are expected to remain dry with mainly VFR ceilings.
Winds trending westerly at 6-12 knots. MPV and SLK currently
MVFR ceilings, but should improve to VFR later this afternoon.
Have VCSH for a couple hours at SLK this afternoon with some
weak shortwave energy which should lead to some mountain snow
showers. Winds will be gusty at times out of the west today.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Neiles