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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230914
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong warm front lifting across the North Country today will
produce a period of wintry precipitation, along with gusty south to
southwest winds. The wintry precipitation will change to a cold rain
overnight with pockets of freezing rain, as temperatures warm into
the 30s. On Thursday, occasional rain will prevail in the morning,
before changing to a period of wet accumulating snowfall during the
afternoon hours, as temperatures drop back into the 20s by evening.
Much colder temperatures arrive for the weekend with chances for
additional snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 358 AM EST Wednesday...Winter wx advisory continues for mixed
precipitation thru 06z tonight for entire cwa. 24 hour temp
changes show readings are 30 to 40 degrees warmer this morning
as strong low level waa continues on gusty south to southwest
winds.

Forecast challenge includes ptype/thermal profiles and winds along
with associated impacts thru Thursday. This system is much more
complex and challenging as initial sfc low pres tracks thru the
central Great Lakes placing our cwa well in the warm sector.

Water vapor shows abundant deep sub-tropical moisture with cooling
cloud tops advecting north ahead of full latitude mid/upper level
trof across the central Conus. First wave of enhanced moisture will
be associated with initial sfc low pres and strong low/mid lvl waa
moving from sw to ne across parts of our cwa today. This will
produce an initial band of snow from northern NY into northern VT
this morning, with accumulations mainly a dusting to 2 inches,
except localized 3 inches possible in the SLV. Strong 925mb to 850mb
jet of 45 to 55 knots, will limit qpf/snowfall across the cpv. Have
mainly chc pops with likely/cat pops slv/dacks into northern VT.
Localized travel impacts will be mainly confined to northern NY this
morning. Soundings support localized gusty winds, especially cpv
with gusts btwn 30 and 40 mph likely, along with some areas of
blowing snow. Temps will warm into the 30s most locations, except
upper 20s east of the Greens.

Tonight, additional rounds of mainly a cold rain is anticipated as
deep layer moisture continues to advect across our cwa with pw
values approaching 0.75". However very cold ground temps from recent
arctic airmass will cause areas of rain to freeze on roadways,
sidewalks, and parking lots, creating areas of very slippery travel,
even with sfc temps well into the 30s. Given the lack of caa
signatures in the pres fields and sfc high pres to our east and not
northeast, expect thermal profiles at all levels to warm quickly,
except at the sfc. Very difficult to determine when ground/pavement
temps warm enough, if they ever do to for just plain rain. I would
anticipate slippery travel this evening and again on Thursday
morning. Gusty south/southwest winds continue with localized gusts
near 40 mph likely in the cpv/slv and parts of the dacks. Widespread
rainfall will range from 0.25 to 0.50, with ice accumulation on tree
limbs and power lines generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Thursday, guidance in good agreement with weak wave developing along
boundary which will enhance precipitation across our cwa. Initial
thermal profiles support a cold rain with temps in the mid 30s to
mid 40s, however still anticipate pockets of icy travel due to very
cold ground/pavement temps in the morning. Meanwhile, as sfc low
pres lifts north of cwa, winds will shift to the west/northwest and
llvl caa develops. Following progged 850mb 0c line supports rain
changing to snow across the dacks btwn 12z-15z, northern Greens by
18z and entire cwa by 00z. A period of wet snow accumulation is
likely from west to east on Thursday, with generally snowfall
amounts of dusting to 2 inches valleys and 2 to 4 inches mountains
above 1500 feet. Given the timing of change over and temps falling
below freezing, anticipating another challenging evening commute.
Total qpf will range btwn 0.50 to 1.0 across our cwa by 00z
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...A persistent upper level trough
will push a small surface low through the North Country leading
to snow showers across the region. There`s modest shallow
instability and some strong mixing so there`s some potential for
some stronger snow showers to develop but I`m not currently
feeling that we should see any snow squalls. The deep mixing
will lead to gusty winds over the Saint Lawrence Valley with
gusts of 25-30kts through the morning hours ahead of a surface
front.

Behind the surface front cold air makes a quick return to the
North Country and will usher in the potential for lake effect
snow across northern New York. Right now its tough to tell
timing and location because the flow aloft looks pretty sheared.
Thats showing up in the simulated reflectivity fields as there
doesn`t seem to be an organized band until late and by that time
its south of Saint Lawrence County. The 12z and 18z suite had
clearer definition of a band but this mornings 00z suite backed
off on the band being prolonged in any one location. We`ll have
to continue to monitor the potential for the band to lift north
but for the moment we should be spectators on the highest
intensity portion.

Temps fall quickly overnight on Friday and we`ll see a return
of sub zero lows. Expect teens to single digits below zero with
wind chills as low as -15F to -20F.

Saturday may end up being a bit of a lull in the active weather.
Weak high pressure tries to build in as we sit under partly
cloudy skies with temps only warming into the teens above zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...Active weather continues in the
extended as another low pressure system will track to our west.
We should see scattered snow showers with the potential for some
squalls on Sunday night. The thermal gradient is impressive as
we drop 10-15 degrees C at 850mb. We may see a brief lull on
Monday into Monday evening as the upper level trough finally
pulls east however another Saint Lawrence system looks on deck
bring more widespread precip heading into the middle of the
week.

Temps generally remain near normal with highs in the 20s and
lows in the single digits to teens above zero.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Challenging aviation forecast for the
next 12 to 24 hours with multiple hazardous, including ptype,
vis/cigs, winds and associated shear/turbulence. All sites
crntly vfr with increasing clouds and winds. Expect light snow
to develop at mss by 09z with ifr conditions, which will spread
toward slk by sunrise. In addition, developing low level jet of
40 to 50 knots will produce areas of shear, especially across
northern NY sites this morning. These winds will help to keep
conditions mainly vfr at pbg/rut/btv thru 18z, before a wintry
mix arrives with vis/cigs trending toward mvfr btwn 18z-00z.
Similar conditions are expected at MPV, while occasional light
snow mixed with sleet occurs at mss/slk with ifr prevailing. As
warmer air develops mixed precip will change to a cold rain by
00z with areas of freezing rain likely with runaway icing
possible, given very cold ground temps. These conditions prevail
overnight into Thursday, with strong low level wind shear and
areas of turbulence, especially near trrn. Expect MVFR
conditions to trend toward ifr by 06z at many sites.


Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Taber