Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061243 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low remains anchored over Newfoundland through early Sunday morning, temperatures remain 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals through the weekend while remaining mainly dry. A significant warm up is expected next week with temperatures warming several degrees each day. Temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday and Thursday before the next frontal system approaches the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 658 AM EST Saturday...Clouds hanging tough over the region this morning with just some breaks in the valleys and across Southern Vermont. Some higher clouds also moving in too. May not see as much sun as we had anticipated this morning, and should have increasing clouds the rest of the day. No big changes for the 630 am update. This weekend will feature quiet and cold weather. Upper level low over Newfoundland will remain parked through early Sunday morning. Will have several waves of moisture drop south across our area, bringing mainly an increase in clouds but also some light mountain snow showers,especially in western facing slopes of Dacks and Greens as flow is largely out of the west. Maximum temperatures today will struggle to get out of the teens and lower 20s, this is about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals. Will see some peaks of sun here and there, but a general increase in cloudiness during the day as waves of moisture and shortwave energy cross the area this afternoon. For tonight and Sunday a large ridge of surface high pressure will begin to slide eastward towards our region shutting down any remaining chances for light mountain snow showers. Temperatures will be cold overnight, especially towards early morning when we may have some breaks in the cloud cover headed towards early Sunday morning. Minimum temperatures will mainly be in the single digits above and below zero. Another cooler than normal day is anticipated for Sunday with highs reaching the upper teens through lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 AM EST Saturday...A cold start to the week as temperatures will be in the single digits above and below zero Monday morning around the area. High pressure will be moving into the area which will lead to a quiet day with minimal cloud cover most of the day. As the ridge axis shifts east during the day, some warmer air will move in allowing most of the region to see daytime temps in the lower 30s. Cloud cover will increase during the afternoon as an upper shortwave approaches from the west. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 324 AM EST Saturday...Overall, the longer term will see a period of warming conditions for the rest of the week. Before that begins a weak shortwave trough moves through the early morning hours on Tuesday and looks to bring maybe a few flakes across the area. Models disagree on if the bulk of the precipitation stays across the international border, but either way this looks to be a rather minor event. The next ridge moves in Wednesday morning as the main push of warmer weather moves in. 850mb temperatures reach above 0C for the first time this year as strong southwest flow brings in the warmest air the region has seen since last Dec. The warming trend will continue into Thursday and early Friday as low pressure moves in from the west. Showers will develop Thursday and continue into Thursday night with the frontal passage. Models still are not in agreement of how quickly the precipitation moves through. Despite this, the concern still remains through Friday for the potential for river ice break up, as thawing degree hours for the Wed-Fri timeframe look to exceed 500 hours across much of the forecast area, leading to significant snowmelt. The question will be rainfall amounts, especially since the GFS has been indicating over the past few runs that there might be two or three rounds of rain. Snowmelt alone would likely not be enough to result in ice movement, but additional rainfall might be, especially the wetter GFS solution. We will continue to monitor model trends as we draw nearer to the time of most concern. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Relatively quiet TAF forecast as most terminals are expected to remain dry with mainly VFR ceilings. Winds trending westerly at 6-12 knots. MPV and SLK currently MVFR ceilings, but should improve to VFR later this afternoon. Have VCSH for a couple hours at SLK this afternoon with some weak shortwave energy which should lead to some mountain snow showers. Winds will be gusty at times out of the west today. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Neiles

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