Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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024 FXUS61 KBTV 221114 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 714 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The combination of exiting high pressure and an approaching low pressure system will provide the North Country with increasing clouds and well above normal temperatures through tonight. An upper trough moving east from the Great Lakes will bring numerous showers Monday and Tuesday, along with the chance for a few rumbles of thunder. For Wednesday onward through the weekend, every other day will feature chances for rain, starting with high pressure and dry conditions Wednesday, and scattered showers Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...It`s the last day of summer, and it will surely feel like it with south/southwesterly flow increasing markedly between exiting high pressure and an approaching upper trough. After morning fog burns off, mid clouds will increase from west to east through the day with a mainly dry but mostly cloudy day expected. I say mainly because the 00Z hi-res model suite remained consistent with the 12Z runs showing the potential for a few convective showers across northern New York during the early afternoon hours. Activity should be fairly isolated so outdoor plans won`t be ruined and Vermont locales should remain dry. Yesterday we saw highs go above guidance in the upper 70s to low 80s, and following that trend today, highs will be even warmer in the low to mid 80s area-wide. While this is a good 15-20 degrees above normal, it`s nothing record setting as most records for the day are closer to 90. Gusty winds are also on tap for today as a modest low level jet of 25-40kts at 925mb works in. Highest winds will be closer to the jet core up the St. Lawrence Valley in the 25-35mph range, with a general 15-25 mph elsewhere. For tonight, dry weather is expected with skies breaking to partly cloudy but modest winds of 10-20 mph will keep temps well above normal in the mid/upper 60s. Dewpoints will hold in the 60s as well, making for a slightly muggy night. On Monday, the well advertised upper trough shifting into the Great Lakes looks to begin to cutoff and occlude with numerous showers developing during the mid-day to afternoon hours along the occlusion. Latest guidance indicates some weak instability in the 250-500 j/kg range will be around supporting a more convective nature to the showers and even the chance of a few rumbles of thunder. QPF should be rather light, especially in the downslope regions with only a general 0.1-0.2" expected. Highs will remain above normal, but tempered from the previous day and only in the mid 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...Monday night into Tuesday will see the upper trough close off to our northwest. Main circulation center will move from southwest Quebec Monday night to western Maine late Tuesday afternoon. Areal coverage of showers associated with the upper low will be isolated to scattered Monday night with dynamic forcing being the main contributing factor to the precipitation. On Tuesday low level lapse rates will steepen and the combination of instability and dynamic forcing should result in increased areal coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s...which will be a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...Looking like a rather progressive pattern in the extended. Showers come to an end Tuesday night as upper low moves far enough east and ridging builds in for Wednesday. Looking at dry weather for Wednesday along with a return to seasonal normals for high temperatures. An upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Thursday and this will bring a chance of showers to much of the area with highs in the 60s to around 70...very similar to readings on Wednesday. That trough moves out of the area Thursday night...which helps to bring an end to the showers...and high pressure builds in for Friday with dry weather expected and highs once again in the 60s to around 70. Another upper trough will move into the region later on Saturday and thus looking at increasing precipitation chances later on Saturday and especially Saturday night. High temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees above normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Outside of lingering VLIFR fog at KMPV and other eastern Vermont airports through 14Z, VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Mid clouds advance west to east across the region this morning becoming BKN-OVC by the afternoon. Could see a few spotty showers across northern New York mid-day to early afternoon, but shouldn`t impact flight conditions. Other concern will be increasing south/southwesterly winds which will become gusty during the mid-morning to late afternoon hours from the Champlain Valley westward. Strongest gusts in the 25-30kt range will be at KMSS, with 15-20kts at KBTV and KSLK. Gusts tail off towards 00Z but winds will remain in the 8-12kt range with ceilings SCT-BKN VFR for the night. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Lahiff

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