Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010006
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
706 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue across the forecast area this evening
of 30-40 mph. Rain will quickly taper off, briefly changing
over to snow before coming to an end by 10PM. Lake effect snow
downwind of Lake Ontario will drift southward overnight, but not
before producing a dusting to an inch of snow. A weak front will
yield additional snow showers on Thursday, some of which are
expected to produce sharp and sudden reductions in visibility. A
brief return to dry, calm weather is expected for Friday before
the next system arrives on Saturday bringing another round of
very breezy conditions and widespread rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 PM EST Wednesday...The long awaited cold front has
just moved through Burlington, Rutland, Middlebury and Swanton
based on the latest observations noting a wind shift to the
west. This front will continue to quickly push eastward over the
next few hours and rainfall will taper off quickly after the
frontal passage as a well pronounced dry slot moves into the
region. Strong winds up to 48 mph have developed over northern
New York in the wake of the cold front and these gusts should
become more widespread across Vermont in the coming hours.
Given these trends, the wind advisory remains in effect through
10 PM as winds are expected to start declining by then.

Previous Discussion...A cold front is currently entering
eastern New York and will continue to push eastward through the
evening hours. Along the front, a fine line has developed on
radar indicating brief heavy rainfall. In addition, relatively
stronger gusts may mix down along this line producing gusts up
to 50 mph. Ahead of the front, we continue to see gusts in the
25-35 mph range from the south/southeast, while west winds
behind the front are gusting up to 30-40 mph. Said gusts will
continue through the overnight hours and during the day on
Thursday, the strongest of which occurring along east-facing
downslope areas of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.

Rain will quickly taper off and briefly transition to snow from
west to east this evening as an upper-level dry slot moves
overhead and temperatures fall in the wake of the cold front.
Snow is expected to begin between 5-7PM across northern New
York, spreading eastward across Vermont by 10PM. However, the
bulk of precipitation will have departed eastward by this time
with the ongoing snow showers becoming focused downwind of Lake
Ontario. Lake effect snow across northern New York will drift
southward through the overnight hours with the bulk of snow
falling south of our forecast area. A dusting to an inch is
expected overnight across southern St. Lawrence, Franklin, and
Essex counties in New York.

Temperatures will fall throughout the day on Thursday with highs
only in the low to mid 30s. A reblossoming of snow showers is
expected mid-morning as a weak secondary cold front swings down from
Canada, with snow squalls possible. During this time, the upper
trough axis will pass overhead providing an increase in moisture
aloft. Combined with orographic ascent under northwest flow, this
will be sufficient to produce light snow across portions of northern
New York and north/central Vermont. Squall-like conditions are
possible between 8AM and 2PM as the front passes during this time,
though snow showers will be scattered in the absence of a strong
boundary. Winds will still be gusting up to 30-40 mph causing sharp
and sudden reductions in visibility which may lead to difficult
travel conditions. A quick accumulation of 1 inch of snow is
possible. Snow showers/squalls will come to an end by late afternoon
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EST Wednesday...High pressure will briefly move into the
region Thursday night/Friday with a return to dry weather, and winds
will finally die down. Overnight lows will be in the mid teens to
mid 20s with daytime highs in the low to mid 40s. Calm, dry weather
will be short-lived, however, as the next system approaches for
Saturday. Ahead of its arrival, winds will pick up out of the
south/southwest beginning late Friday night. Paired with warm air
advection, relatively mild overnight temperatures are expected
Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 PM EST Wednesday...The active pattern continues this
weekend with the arrival of another round of rainfall and gusty
winds on Saturday. The general setup for the weekend system will be
similar totoday`s system, just less dynamic. A surface low will
develop over the central US and track northeastward into eastern
Canada. Ahead of the low we`ll see another strengthening low-level
jet, with 850 mb winds progged around 50 to 60 knots. This general
setup will again result in a window for some gusty winds early
Saturday before rain showers develop midday. Just how strong winds
will get at the surface will again depend on mixing depth, which is
difficult to pin down in these warm air advection patterns with
precipitation moving in. The most likely scenario will be some
sporadic gusty winds in the 25 to 40+ mph range Saturday accompanied
by another round of rain. Once the cold front moves through later
on the day Saturday, expect post- frontal gusty winds from the west
and some lingering light snow showers Saturday night over higher
terrain.

High pressure will build in Sunday, so looking at a quick dry
break for the second half of the weekend. The next system, much
weaker, will swing through Sunday night into Monday as a
northern stream shortwave that will bring some light snow/rain
showers to the area. Very little moisture associated with this
one, so not looking very impactful at all at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR/MVFR to prevail through the TAF period,
with local IFR in scattered snow showers possible, mainly at
KSLK and KEFK. Steady rain has exited to the east, but expect
scattered snow showers to persist through 04z before coalescing
into a lake effect band off of Lake Ontario overnight. This band
may impact KRUT, but have stayed with VCSH due to uncertainty.
Otherwise, scattered snow showers develop after 13z Thu, mainly
impacting KSLK and KEFK until 22z. Gusty west/southwest winds
will persist through just about the entire TAF period; gusts of
30-35 kt are possible. LLWS will be possible, mainly at KSLK,
overnight as well.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds between 20 to 30 knots are being observed on Lake
Champlain at this time with gusts up to 35-40 knots. Waves of
3-5 feet will diminish to 2-4 feet overnight as winds become
westerly. While sustained winds will weaken a fair bit, 20 to
30 knot gusts are likely to continue well into Thursday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCXX radar will be down for approximately 2 weeks (through
approximately December 12) for a scheduled pedestal replacement
on site. This a critical repair to ensure the operational
longevity of the equipment.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VTZ001>011-
     016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hammond
NEAR TERM...Clay/Hammond
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Duell/Hastings
MARINE...Hammond
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


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