Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
410 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifting through the region this morning will bring an
end to areas of light snow and drizzle with increasing southerly
winds through the day warming temperatures into the mid to upper
30s. A weak cold front moves across the area tonight with a few
mountain snow showers possible, followed by high pressure for Friday
and Saturday. A more potent low pressure system will bring a wintry
mix Saturday night, followed by warming temps and rain for Sunday,
and widespread snow showers Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...As surface low pressure over the Great
Lakes continues to track northeast into southern Quebec this morning
we`ll continue to see a general decrease in areal coverage of
precipitation though areas of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle are
possible through mid-morning. Have cancelled the winter weather
advisory for eastern Vermont based on radar trends, but also after
observing area webcams which have shown less snow has fallen
overnight than previously forecast. Roads will have a light snow
cover and probably be slick for the morning commute, but hey, that`s
winter in the North Country. Moving through the day as the area
moves more firmly into the warm sector south/southwesterly winds
will be increasing with gusts in the 15- 25mph range likely along
with surface temps rising into the mid/upper 30s.

For tonight, a trailing cold front will track through the region and
while low level moisture will remain abundant the overall forcing is
rather weak so think any precip will be confined to the higher
terrain with perhaps a dusting to an inch of snow accumulation
possible. Skies should remain fairly cloudy as a mid-level
subsidence inversion sets up so have gone a few degrees above
guidance with lows mainly in the low/mid 20s. On Friday, incoming
high pressure will provide drying conditions with skies gradually
scouring out and some sunshine likely by the late afternoon. Highs
will be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...A large area of high pressure will exist
over the entire Northeast Friday night into Saturday. This will
allow for dry weather along with some sunshine. Since the high is
building in from the west low temperatures Friday night will
generally be in the teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s
which should make for a rather nice day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...Active weather is expected Saturday night
through Monday. First we will see another mixed precipitation event
late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong low pressure
system remains to our northwest. A warm front with its associated
warm air advection moves from southwest to northeast across our area
after midnight Saturday night with warmest air aloft working its way
up into northern New York during the early morning hours on Sunday.
This area will have the best chance for seeing a wintry mix along
with the potential for some light ice accumulations. Across Vermont
the bulk of the precipitation during the early morning hours on
Sunday will be snow with some sleet and eventually rain mixing in.
Any snow accumulations at this time early Sunday morning look to be
up to an inch of snow. Sunday should see all areas transition over
to rain as highs reach the upper 30s to upper 40s. The main issue on
Sunday...especially late in the day and Sunday night will be deeper
mixing that develops and allows stronger flow aloft to mix down and
create rather gusty conditions. Looking at much of the area
experiencing wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range and could see the
Saint Lawrence Valley and the highest elevations of the northern
Adirondacks and Green Mountains getting even stronger wind gusts.
Definitely a situation to keep an eye on. The gusty winds will
actually continue right into Monday as flow becomes more west to
northwest. This will help decrease the areal coverage of
precipitation and see it transition from rain back over to snow as
it becomes more tied to the higher terrain given the flow pattern.
With the developing west to northwest flow aloft we will return to
drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday along with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...MVFR/IFR in light snow will continue across
the area for the next few hours before precip briefly transitions
to DZ/FZDZ before generally ending by 09-12Z with vsby lifting
to VFR and cigs remaining MVFR for the remainder of the night.
After 12Z, conditions slowly improve to VFR at all sites except
KMSS/KSLK where MVFR cigs will persist. Winds mainly southeast
except northeast at KMSS through the night before a shift to the
south/southwest after 12Z and becoming increasingly gusty
between 18-25kts at most sites through the period.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Definite FZRA, Likely RA, Likely PL.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely RA, Likely SN, Likely SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff


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