Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 060816
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
416 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and dry conditions are anticipated through Tuesday.
High temperatures on Monday will be near seasonal averages for early
April, generally in the low to mid 50s, and then in the mid to upper
50s on Tuesday. A series of frontal systems brings increasing
chances for precipitation Wednesday, and again during the daylight
hours Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...Large area of surface high pressure will
slowly move across the region for the entirety of the near term
forecast. Mostly sunny skies are expected today with northwesterly
winds around 10-15 mph, gusty winds develop this afternoon up to
about 20 mph as lapse rates steepen. Temperatures will reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon, and dewpoints will dip into
the teens as well. This will drop afternoon relative humidities into
the 20 percent range. For Monday night and Tuesday, a few upper
level shortwaves passing through upper level flow will bring some
clouds despite high pressure remaining over the area. Temperatures
will be near seasonal normals overnight, mainly mid 20s to lower
30s. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Tuesday as we get into
some southerly return flow. High temps will reach the lower to mid
50s, a few upper 50s in the wider valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...A progressive west/northwest flow aloft is
anticipated, while a weak boundary is draped acrs our
central/southern cwa during this timeframe. Still some uncertainty
on areal coverage/intensity of precip late Tues into Weds. NAM is
drier and keep most of the precip to our south, while ECMWF/GEM and
GFS have an axis of better forcing/moisture from nw to se acrs our
central/southern cwa. Have blended these solutions for pops with
schc near the international border to low likely acrs southern
Rutland/Windsor Counties on Weds morning. A slight shift north or
south in 5h vort track or position of weak boundary will have
significant impacts on pops/qpf. Expecting clouds will keep temps on
the cooler side with highs generally mid 40s to lower 50s (near
normal) with lows mainly in the 30s for both Tues and Weds nights.
Qpf generally <0.10 and confined mainly along and south of a MSS to
BTV to MPV to White River Junction line.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...Large scale pattern change looks likely by
the end of this work week, as mid/upper lvl trof develops with
unsettled weather and below normal temps. The combination of potent
5h energy, strong sfc convergence, and ribbon of enhanced 850 to
500mb moisture will produce a band of rain showers on Thurs. Have
mention cat pops, given the dynamics and available moisture with pws
in the 0.50 to 0.75 range. Instability seems rather minimal attm, so
have not mention thunder, but cannot completely rule out a rumble or
two, especially Thurs afternoon, given the vigorous short wave and
associated height falls. Strong cold front quickly sweeps acrs our
cwa by 00z Friday, as brisk to gusty west/northwest winds develop on
850mb winds of 45 to 50 knots. Will have to watch mixing potential,
especially northern NY, for some localized sfc gusts up to 40 mph on
Thurs aftn/evening. Potent 5h vort will help in rapid development of
secondary coastal low pres in the Gulf of Maine on Thurs Night into
Friday, with several solutions showing sub 975mb low pres. Latest
trends have placed best forcing and moisture associated with coastal
development east of our cwa, with mainly upslope/trrn focused precip
for Friday into Saturday. Have mention chc to likely pops for the
mtns during this time period, with 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles
indicating the potential for some accumulating snowfall. A diurnal
trend in snow levels will be expected, given early April sun angle,
with greatest potential for snow accumulations in the lower levels
occurring during the night-time hours, mainly above 1000 feet. BL
should stay in the mid 30s acrs the cpv/slv and lower ct river
valleys, preventing snow accumulations. Mid/upper lvl trof with
lingering upslope precip will prevail into next weekend. Some
additional snowfall accumulation is possible in the mountains. The
warmest day will be Weds when progged 925mb temps are in the 3 to 5C
range associated with small warm sector window, with highs mid 40s
to lower 50s. Progged 925mb temps drop into the single digits below
0C for Thurs into the upcoming weekend supporting highs mid/upper
30s mountains to mid 40s valleys. Lows generally hold in the upper
20s to mid/upper 30s during the period, as clouds/winds and precip
will limit drop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with the exception being SLK where IFR fog has formed
along with low ceilings. Gradual clearing will occur overnight
with SKC areawide by 12Z and just a few increasing cirrus
through the day on Monday. Winds will be generally less than
10kts through the period from the WNW.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff/Neiles



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