Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 162322
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
722 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather conditions prevail with above normal temperatures
through next week. Fog is expected across favored terrain
basins, tonight. Spotty drizzle or very light rain will be
possible over southern Vermont early Friday morning, but should
lift by afternoon. Then, a weak frontal passage on Saturday will
bring chances for showers, and then high pressure will quickly
return for a stretch of dry, warm days to the start the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 719 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Skies remain clear to mostly clear over much
of the region, though they are starting to increase over far
southern VT as maritime air makes its northward push. Expect
valley fog will form once again tonight, and have added it into
the forecast for those areas that remain mostly cloud free
overnight. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other
changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Refreshing weather conditions continue
for the North Country. As high pressure moves to our northeast,
southeasterly flow will advect moist, maritime air into our
southern zones. Drizzle or very light showers will be possible
across our southernmost areas with overcast skies for the
southern half of our area. Lows coolest outside of clouds across
northern New York and Vermont with spot 40s in cool hollows,
but mainly low to mid 50s. The Champlain Valley and southern
Vermont should be in the upper 50s to near 60. As diurnal
destabilization takes place, clouds should lift and any drizzle
should diminish with it. Mid-level capping should keep us mainly
dry, and it will be partly to mostly cloudy. Overall, another
nice with mid 70s to near 80 forecast for high temperatures.
Friday night will remain warm as a frontal boundary approaches
from the northwest with our area remaining well mixed. Some
showers will be possible over northern New York during Friday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM EDT Thursday...A shortwave trough and weak surface cold
front will cross the region on Saturday bringing a chance for light
rain showers to Northern New York and Vermont, especially during the
afternoon. Only very limited surface instability, but still have
mentioned chance for thunder with this frontal passage. High
temperatures on Saturday will range through the 70s before the front
sweeps through, and temps will drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s
Saturday night. Surface high pressure will ridge into the region
behind departing surface front, and skies will become clear towards
early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 312 PM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure will dominate our
weather pattern for most of the long term portion of our forecast.
High pressure will be anchored over the Northeastern CONUS from
Sunday through Tuesday, and the warming trend will be notable
as 850 temperatures will continue to warm through the period
with an upper level ridge also over our region. Towards mid
week, models are indicating another frontal system will cross
the region, but there`s still some uncertainty with the timing
of this frontal passage. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF and
brings the front through Wed into Wed night. The ECMWF is a bit
slower with the front coming through Wed night into Thu. Of
course the timing of the front will directly impact amount of
surface instability that develops. Therefore have just mentioned
chance for showers at this time. Models should come into better
agreement with regards to timing and strength of the system as
we get closer to the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Largely VFR for the next 24 hours with
light and variable winds, which become southerly beyond 14Z
Friday. Anticipate valley fog at SLK and MPV from about 07Z to
13Z, with periods of 1/4SM FG likely. Brief LIFR expected at
KEFK 10z-12z.  Some drizzle will be possible at RUT around 09Z
to 15Z, along with MVFR ceilings as marine air lifts from the
south. After 15Z, expect just fair weather cumulus around 5000
ft.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings/Haynes


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