Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 040906
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Spot Forecast for Zuni Pine Barrens...DCR
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
506 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Lingering clouds will mix out and yield to a mainly clear/sunny
sky by late morning into this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible by late afternoon into this evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (80200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 increasing to 29 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 41 late in the morning increasing
                    to 58 in the afternoon decreasing to 51.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  9   13  14  14  14  17  18
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20
Temp............77  82  85  87  88  88  90  89
RH..............74  63  57  53  52  52  49  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.13  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  21  21  21  20  17
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............33  41  54  58  61  60  57  51
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30  41  65  73  79  80  78  68
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Slight chance of showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (32700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (12100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................43 decreasing to 17 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 5 early in the evening increasing
                    to 15 overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........34     43     30     43     51     61
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     20     20     20
Temp............88     83     78     75     75     74
RH..............52     63     71     79     76     76
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.12     8      8      8      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   2500   2000   2000   2100   2100
Transport wind..SW 15  SW 10  SW 8   SW 8   SW 10  SW 12
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      4      4
ADI.............43     7      3      5      14     15
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33     23     13     14     19     21
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of showers
                    late in the morning, then chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph increasing to west 23 to
                    28 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (95800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................16 increasing to 31 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 43 late in the morning increasing
                    to 59 late in the morning increasing to 71
                    decreasing to 63 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........60           75           44
Weather cov.....             CHANCE       CHANCE
Weather type....NONE         RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                          CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20           40           40
Temp............72           76           82
RH..............81           71           56
20 FT wind......SW 7G11      SW 11G16     W 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....2400         2900         4300
Transport wind..SW 12        SW 23        W 25
LVORI...........4            3            1
ADI.............16           54           73
Haines index....3            3            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24           59           96
Ventrate Cat....POOR         FAIR         GOOD

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Rebecca Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111489.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/04/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL rebecca.wilson@dcr.virginia.gov


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