Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FNUS74 KAMA 031429
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Potter 9:03...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
929 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 CDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

On the whole, winds should remain consistently out of the north-
northeast at 15 to 20 mph over the next 24 hours. However, there
is a good chance for showers this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible as well, which would lead to erratic wind
speeds and directions if they approach the fire. The most
favorable time frame for showers and thunderstorms will be between
4pm and 10pm. RH values should remain well above 50 percent
through mid-morning tomorrow.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning,
                    then rain showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 17 to 18 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     40     70
LAL.............2      2      3      3
Temp............60     60     60     58
RH..............75     78     75     75
20 ft wind......N 17   N 18   N 18   N 18
20 ft wind gust.23     26     26     26
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4    2.6    2.6    2.8
Transp wind dir.NE     NE     N      N
Transp wind spd.23     22     20     21
Haines index....3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100048     49     45     50

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    0400, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 14 to 18 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late evening and early
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1800-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (29600-47900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70     50     40     40     30     10
LAL.............3      3      2      2      2      1
Temp............58     55     51     50     48     47
RH..............73     76     90     91     91     88
20 ft wind......N 18   N 17   N 15   N 15   N 15   N 16
20 ft wind gust.26     25     22     22     22     23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5    2.3    2.1    1.9    1.9    1.9
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.22     21     21     20     21     20
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/100048     42     37     33     34     33

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-2700 ft AGL increasing to 6300-7500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (10900-45400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............45     45     49     57     61     66
RH..............93     86     66     46     36     28
20 ft wind......N 14   N 12   N 15   N 14   NE 14  NE 10
20 ft wind gust.19     15     22     21     19     14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4    1.7    3.8    5.0    6.3    7.3
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.15     9      12     10     8      7
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/100019     13     38     45     45     44

$$
Forecaster...Ferguson
Requested by...Belinda Jackson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2111371.0/AMA
.DELDT 05/03/21


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