Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS73 KAPX 081227
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Peterson Rx Fire SLBE...National Park Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
827 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...Well below normal temperatures to continue...

.DISCUSSION...Seasonably chilly airmass will remain across
northern Michigan the next several days, resulting in well below
normal temperatures across the burn location. Rain-free conditions
expected at the burn site for the next several days as well. Low
level moisture will steadily mix out this afternoon and Sunday
afternoon, but relative humidity values are expected to remain
above critical levels. Good humidity recovery expected tonight as
temperatures drop into the lower 30s. Light northwest winds will
gradually veer more westerly this afternoon. May see some
gustiness later this morning and afternoon, but current trends
support speeds remaining below critical levels. Very light winds
expected tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....42-47.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then becoming light
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 14 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to good (0-300).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   4   4   5   5   6   6   7   8   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............36  38  40  41  42  44  44  45  47  47
RH..............82  79  73  70  65  55  53  51  45  45
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   4   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.    6   7   10  10  10  8   8   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  12  10  9   8   6   5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3
VRate/100.......1   2   2   3   3   2   2   1   1   0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....34-39.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the east 0
                    to 3 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor (0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........15  22  28  36  44  52  53  54  56  58  60  63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  46  44  41  40  37  38  37  37  35  35  34
RH..............45  47  51  59  64  72  70  70  67  69  66  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   S   SE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   1   0   0   1   1   2   3   3   4
20 FT wind gust.6   5       2   1   1       2   4   5   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW  SW  SW  S   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   2   2   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 6 to 12 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1800 ft AGL increasing to 1700-2100 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to good (0-300).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........59     52     66     65     49     39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............34     37     44     46     46     46
RH..............72     72     62     58     58     55
20 ft wind......E 4    E 4    NE 2   NE 6   N 12   N 11
20 ft wind gust.6      5      5      8      13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....100    300    800    1500   2100   2000
Transport wind..E 6    E 9    E 8    NE 9   N 14   N 15
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4
VRate/100.......0      0      1      1      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Mike Boguth
Requested by...scott weyenberg
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111965.0/APX
.DELDT 05/08/21


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.