Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 060935
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 86 woods...PGC
National Weather Service State College PA
535 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 06.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build into the region today, bringing cool and
dry conditions with relatively light winds. An area of low
pressure will work across Pennsylvania on Friday, accompanied by
rain showers and significantly higher humidity.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 59.
Min Humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................26 increasing to 49 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  47  49  51  53  55  57  55  53  51
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  43  48  52  54  53  55  56  58  57
RH................  73  58  48  41  41  37  34  30  30
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  3   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   7   8   10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.5 2.7 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 4.9
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  5   6   7   7   8   12  12  7   6
LVORI.............  3   2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2
ADI...............  26  26  26  49  49  49  49  49  49
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 39.
Max Humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the east 3 to
                    7 mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    increasing to 10 to 15 mph overnight shifting
                    to the northeast 5 to 9 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  52  53  55  58  62  65  72  78  85  87  89  91
Weather Cov.......                                      SCH SCH CHC
Weather Type......                                      RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  56  54  51  47  45  44  43  43  42  42  41  41
RH................  32  36  41  47  51  53  55  53  57  62  70  73
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  N   N   N   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   5   4   3   2   1   1   2   3   3   2   2
20 FT Wind Gust...  7   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   5   4   4   5
Mix Hgt (kft).....  4.5 3.8 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE
Transp Wind Spd...  5   3   3   3   3   3   7   7   10  15  9   5
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   3   2   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  3   3   3   2   2   2   5   5   5   7   7   7
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 52.
Min Humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the west 5
                    to 10 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then shifting to the northwest 13 to
                    14 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 increasing to 30 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  93  96  98  99  99  100 98  96  95  88  82  75
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH
Weather Type......  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  41  41  42  44  45  47  47  48  49  51  51  50
RH................  76  79  82  82  86  79  76  74  71  63  61  61
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   SE  E   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  2   1   1   2   2   3   4   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   7   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  12  13
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  S   SE  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  6   6   6   6   5   5   8   10  14  14  13  13
LVORI.............  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2
ADI...............  5   5   5   10  10  10  29  29  29  30  30  30
Haines Index......  4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Josh
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111621.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/06/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL Joshmitche@pa.gov


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