Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS73 KDTX 052002
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Verona Rx burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
402 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Minimum RH values only fall to the mid 50 percent
range Thursday afternoon ahead of showers which last into the
evening. Northerly wind shifting east reflects lake breeze
influence mid to late afternoon. Cooler air moving in from the
lake also contributes to decreased mixing height during this time.
Additional rain activity and similar humidity is forecast Friday
afternoon with light west wind veering northwest into Saturday
with mainly dry and cool conditions.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    by early afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800-6800 ft AGL decreasing to 900-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 13 mph becoming east around 10 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to excellent (0-70000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........54  59  70  72  75  77  81
Weather cov......            CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.....            RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............46  48  49  49  49  48  48
RH...............60  58  56  56  57  58  61
Eye lvl wnd dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  E
Eye lvl wnd spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst..8   8   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)....5.8 6.6 6.8 6.2 4.7 2.6 0.9
Transp wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   NE  E
Transp wind spd..13  13  10  8   7   6   6
Haines index.....3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000.60  70  60  40  30  10  0

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) becoming partly
                    cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....32-37.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......0-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 6 mph becoming southwest 3 to 5
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)..........81     79     69     59     49     46
Weather cov......CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type.....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............47     44     41     39     37     36
RH...............62     69     77     82     85     87
Eye level wind...E 7    SE 6   S 5    SW 5   SW 5   W 5
Eye lvl wnd gst..8      8      6      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft).....300    200    100    100    100    BLW100
Transport wind...E 6    SE 6   S 5    SW 3   SW 3   SW 3
Haines index.....4      4      3      3      4      3
VRate kt-ft/1000.0      0      0      0      0      0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4400 ft AGL in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 9 mph becoming northwest around 10
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-40000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%)..........49        58        60        69
Weather cov......          CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type.....NONE      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............37        42        47        49
RH...............87        79        66        60
Eye level wind...W 5G6     NW 5G6    N 5G6     NE 7G8
Mix hgt (ft).....BLW100    1500      4400      3600
Transport wind...W 3       W 6       W 12      NW 10
Haines index.....3         3         3         3
VRate kt-ft/1000.0         10        40        30

$$

Forecaster...Tilley
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111701.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/05/21
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov


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