Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 081222
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Three Rivers...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
622 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on May 08.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
High fire danger today as an upper trough swings through the region,
helping to induce strong westerly winds. Min RH today will drop to
10 percent with Excellent max vent rates. Wind will slowly decrease
after sunset, becoming light by Sunday morning. Winds will stay just below
critical thresholds on Sunday and Monday though min RH will still be
around 10 percent. Dry conditions will remain in place through the
first half of next week with min RHs below 12 percent. Wind looks
light overall. RH finally jumps into 20 percent by Wednesday.
Vent rates will be Excellent through Tuesday, and drops to
Good to Excellent for the rest of the week.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 23 mph. Gusts up to 39 mph
                    increasing to 46 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 10400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 11 mph increasing to west 34 to
                    35 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43000 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (321000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........3      4      5      8      13
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............51     57     59     61     63
RH..............23     17     14     12     11
20 ft wind......W 16   W 18   W 20   W 21   W 22
20 ft wind gust.26     30     31     35     37
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   4400   7900   9700   10400
Transport wind..SW 14  W 26   W 32   W 33   W 33
Haines index....5      4      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16     82     201    276    292
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 14 to 23 mph with gusts to around 38
                    mph decreasing to around 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......10700 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 33 to 34 mph becoming southwest 8 to 9 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (320400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........18     17     11     5      3      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............62     58     53     51     48     46
RH..............10     12     14     16     20     23
20 ft wind......W 23   W 22   W 17   W 15   W 14   W 15
20 ft wind gust.38     35     29     24     22     24
Mix hgt (ft)....10700  5300   100    100    100    BLW100
Transport wind..W 37   W 30   SW 16  W 13   SW 10  SW 7
Haines index....6      6      6      5      5      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..339    225    2      0      1      1
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL increasing to 11200-11700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (34000 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (240600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........6         4         2         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        49        57        61
RH..............26        25        19        15
20 FT wind......W 10G19   NW 5G10   W 6G10    SW 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....100       1500      8900      11200
Transport wind..SW 5      W 8       W 10      SW 17
Haines index....3         3         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         19        71        176
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 14 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. South
winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...REYNOLDS
Requested by...Josh DuBoise
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2111964.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/08/21
.EMAIL josh.duboise@usfs.gov


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