Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FNUS72 KFFC 080933
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Spot Forecast for Hilliard WMA F14 SNorth Subunit...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
533 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A dry and mostly sunny day is expected at the burn site today. 20 ft
winds will be W throughout the day today, starting the morning at 3
mph or less and increasing to 5-6 mph during the afternoon hours.
Transport winds will similarly be light and variable this morning
before shifting to SW at 3-5 mph by noon and W at 5-8 mph after 2 PM
this afternoon. Relative humidity values just under 50 percent at
ignition time will decrease through the morning, and steadily
decrease through the morning. RH is forecast to drop below 25
percent just after 1 PM and remain at a minimum of 24 percent
through 5-6 PM. Taking low relative humidity values and dry fuels
into consideration, high fire danger conditions are anticipated this
afternoon in central Georgia, including at the burn site.

Winds will diminish overnight and shift to S by early Sunday
morning. 20 ft winds will remain S tomorrow, increasing to 10-13 mph
in the afternoon with occasional gusts. Transport winds tomorrow
will also be S through the morning and early afternoon before
shifting to SW around 2 PM, and will increase above 25 mph.
Persistent southerly flow on Sunday will also lead to an increase in
RH tomorrow, with minimum RH values currently forecast to decrease
to 31 percent in the afternoon. Deep mixing heights between 5.5-6.5
kft are forecast Saturday and Sunday afternoon over the burn site.
Please feel free to contact us if you have any further questions or
concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Dewpoint............38.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 0 mph shifting to the south 1 to 2
                    mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    west 3 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 increasing to 44.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13  12  12  12  11  11  12  15  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  65  70  73  75  77  78  79  79
Dewpoint........40  39  39  38  37  37  38  39  40
RH..............49  39  32  28  25  24  24  24  25
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   3   3   5   5   6   5
20 FT wind gust.2   4   4   4   6   6   6   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Transp wind dir.E   SE  S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.0   1   1   2   3   5   7   8   8
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.............1   3   5   11  20  29  39  44  48
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   3   4   8   18  22  26  34  38
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Dewpoint............44.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 7 mph shifting to the south 2 to
                    3 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................32 decreasing to 2.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  30  34  30  20  16  13  6   3   4   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  77  73  69  67  65  63  62  61  60  60  58
Dewpoint........42  43  45  46  46  46  46  45  46  45  45  45
RH..............27  31  36  43  47  51  53  54  56  57  59  62
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   3   2   2   2   3   2   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6           4   5   4   5   6   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   5   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
ADI.............32  2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   1
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..29  10  0   0   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Dewpoint............48 increasing to 53 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 13 mph with
                    gusts to around 18 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 10 mph increasing to 18 to 26 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (96100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (109200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................6 increasing to 105.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   4   5   5   5   5   5   6   7   11  19  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............58  58  60  66  72  76  80  83  85  86  87  87
Dewpoint........46  46  48  49  49  50  50  50  51  52  53  55
RH..............63  65  65  54  45  40  35  32  31  31  32  34
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   6   8   9   10  12  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   8   11  13  14  16  17  18  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.5 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   1   3   10  18  25  26  25  24  25  25  24
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............1   1   3   10  45  73  89  102 102 100 109 108
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   15  43  57  70  96  109 114 125 130
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

$$
Forecaster...King
Requested by...Mike Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111908.0/FFC
.DELDT 05/08/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL michael.thompson@tnc.org


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