Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FNUS73 KMPX 081220
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lynch Lake...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
720 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Cloud will be on the increase this morning as rain approaches from
the Dakotas. Burn site looks to be near the northern edge of the rain
shield today, so it could stay dry, with rain line staying just
south of the burn location. At any rate, the clouds will help keep
humidities from dropping as low as they have the past few days, with
a fairly steady southeast wind expected today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain likely after 1400.
                    Chance of rain 60 percent.
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 53.
RH..................44 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 6 to 11
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2700-4500
                    ft AGL increasing to 3700-5100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 21 mph.
Mixing winds........East 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /45300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /80600 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........3 very low at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............48  50  51  52  52  51  50  50  49
RH..............44  39  36  35  35  41  42  42  46
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  11  11  11  11  10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  16  16  16  14  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.3 3.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  17  17  17  16  15  12
Mixing wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
Mixing wind spd.20  21  21  17  17  17  16  15  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100045  69  81  76  72  67  66  56  37

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of rain early in the evening.
                    Chance of rain 40 percent.
Temperature.........Min 35.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    north 5 to 6 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......700-2600 ft AGL decreasing to 400-700 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 10 mph shifting to the west 5 to
                    9 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the north 10 to 15 mph early in the morning.
Mixing winds........Southeast 6 to 10 mph shifting to the west 5 to
                    9 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the north 10 to 15 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1700-23400 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............48     45     42     40     39     38
RH..............47     58     67     76     79     76
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 6   NW 5   N 5    N 5    N 6
20 ft wind gust.13     10     8      8      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   1300   800    400    700    600
Transport wind..E 10   SW 6   W 6    W 5    W 9    N 15
Mixing wind.....E 10   SW 6   W 6    W 5    W 9    N 15
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100023     6      4      2      5      8

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
Temperature.........Max 57.
RH..................Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 6800-7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 14 mph shifting to the south around
                    15 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the east early in the afternoon shifting to the
                    north 13 to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........North 7 to 14 mph shifting to the south around
                    15 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the east early in the afternoon shifting to the
                    north 13 to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5300-38200 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (60300 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 low.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............38     43     48     53     54     55
RH..............76     60     47     36     32     30
20 ft wind......N 6    N 8    N 8    N 9    N 10   N 10
20 ft wind gust.10     11     11     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1300   4200   6800   7200   7200
Transport wind..N 12   N 10   N 10   N 14   E 15   N 13
Mixing wind.....N 12   N 10   N 10   N 14   E 15   N 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10005      12     38     82     92     82

$$
Forecaster...Griesinger
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111960.0/MPX
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.