Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FNUS75 KMSO 071804
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Elk Lake RX
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1204 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 MDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A system of low pressure is approaching southwest Montana this
morning. A cold front associated with this system will bring gusty
winds, primarily southwesterly with a chance for westerly, to the
burn site this afternoon. The front will also bring a chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms
that do form will be capable of erratic outflow winds. Expect
continued unsettled weather on Saturday with cloudy skies and a
chance for precipitation, most likely in the form of snow.
Accumulations will be about one half to two inches. Gusty
westerly winds relax slightly from today.

.REST OF TODAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and chance of
  thunderstorms.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...40 percent.
* Max Temperature.....58-63.
* Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest around 12-17 mph with gusts to
  around 25 mph. Thunderstorms could produce erratic gusts to
  about 35 mph.
* Mixing Height.......8000 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 20 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.03 inches.

.TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers, snow showers and slight
  chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then snow showers likely
  after sunset.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...80 percent.
* Min Temperature.....22-27.
* Max Humidity........73-78 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........West 8-15 mph with gusts to around 24 mph
  becoming north 8-11 mph after sunset.
* Mixing Height.......8000 ft agl decreasing to 1500 ft agl after
  midnight.
* Mixing Winds........West 20 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.21 inches.

.SATURDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...10 percent.
* Max Temperature.....35-40.
* Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Northwest 7-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl increasing to 9500 ft agl in the
  afternoon.
* Mixing Winds........Northwest 15 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.03 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Messina/Leach

Requested by...Alex Horton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111454.4/MSO
.DELDT 05/07/21
.EMAIL james.king@usda.gov,mtddc@firenet.gov


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