Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 080322
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Southern Crook...USFS MARK TWAIN NF
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1022 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 CDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds and a shallow mixed layer will result in
poor dispersion overnight. Southerly winds will pick up on Saturday
and yield better dispersion within a modest mixed layer. A band of
showers is forecast to lift northeast across the area late tonight
into Saturday morning. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
A break in the activity is expected Saturday afternoon and evening,
followed by an even better chance for showers and thunderstorms with
wetting rain late Saturday night into Sunday.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am.
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........59 at forecast start...Min 52.
RH..................62 percent at forecast start...Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds west at 3 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at forecast start...max
                    5.

TIME (CDT)      11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      10
Temp............59     56     55     53
RH..............62     69     74     86
20 FT wind dir..W      SW     S      SE
20 FT wind spd..3      2      1      2
20 FT wind gust.12     9      7      6
Haines index....5      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 60 percent in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 0 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 12 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............20     50     60     50     10     0
Temp............52     53     57     61     66     71
RH..............89     89     80     72     61     51
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     S
20 FT wind spd..3      5      7      7      9      10
20 FT wind gust.6      12     15     16     20     22
Haines index....4      2      2      2      3      3

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the evening, then showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 60 percent overnight.
Temperature.........Min 61.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      60     60
Temp............72     69     65     63     63     63
RH..............51     59     70     78     81     84
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..10     9      10     9      9      9
20 FT wind gust.20     14     14     15     15     17
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................60 percent increasing to 80 percent.
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............60     80     80     80     80     80
Temp............61     64     71     74     75     74
RH..............90     87     73     66     64     62
20 FT wind dir..SW     SW     SW     SW     SW     W
20 FT wind spd..8      10     12     12     12     10
20 FT wind gust.21     25     28     29     28     24
Haines index....3      2      2      2      3      3

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Scott Bashaw
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2111946.0/PAH
.DELDT 05/07/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL momoc.dispatch@usda.gov


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