Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000
FNUS71 KPBZ 021409
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for Izenbrown...Allegheny National Forest
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1009 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (412) 262-1485, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.Discussion...

Dry weather is expected today under a ridge of high pressure.
Minimum RH levels should drop from 30 to 35 percent for much of
the area, with SW wind gusting to around 25 mph. Rain showers are
expected to overspread the region later tonight and Monday. A few
thunderstorms are also possible Monday afternoon. Unsettled
weather is then expected to continue for much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 28 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 30 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................56 increasing to 81.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........37  24  19  25  40  47  45  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  69  73  76  78  79  79  78
RH..............44  40  37  35  33  34  34  32
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  18  19  21  21  23  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.3 3.2 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  22  23  24  25  28  30  30
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............60  60  74  74  74  91  91  91
Haines index....2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 24 mph decreasing to 6 to 12
                    mph early in the evening.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................33 decreasing to 6 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  56  65  58  55  59  49  64  78  73  88  88
Weather cov.....                                        ISO ISO
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  76  71  67  65  63  61  61  60  59  58  58
RH..............32  34  42  49  59  62  67  70  69  69  72  72
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.17  16  11  11  11  10  10              6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.24  17  12  10  10  10  9   9   8   7   6   6
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............33  33  33  7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers through
                    the day. Isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................13.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........91  92  91  90  92  92  92  92  90  91  93  87
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                ISO ISO ISO ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).30  40  50  60  70  80  80  80  80  90  90  90
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............57  57  58  59  61  62  62  63  63  64  64  65
RH..............75  76  73  78  79  76  77  78  78  77  76  76
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   9   12  13  14  14  14  12  9   7
LVORI...........4   4   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............9   9   9   14  14  14  16  16  16  13  13  13
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3

$$
Forecaster...MPK
Requested by...Burn Boss
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111295.0/PBZ
.DELDT 05/02/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL paul.clement@usda.gov


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