Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 081222
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Mosquito Creek N RX...USFS BTF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
622 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Much cooler today with isolated afternoon snow showers possible.
No snow accumulation is expected. Winds are generally expected to
be westerly and breezy at times today. Smoke dispersal will become
good by around 1 PM.

On Sunday, winds will be light and terrain driven with slightly
warmer temperatures.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Murrell

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) in the
                    morning. Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)
                    with isolated snow showers possible
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....39-42 at 6800 feet. 30-33 at 8600 feet.
Min humidity........31-35 percent at all elevations.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 3-6 mph by 9 AM,
                    becoming west around 10 mph. Gusts 15
                    to 20 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 10 to 15 mph
increasing to 15 to 20 mph by 10 AM.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.Near zero.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 mph
                    by around noon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor becoming fair at 11 AM, good by 1 PM.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  56  60  61  59  60  62  65  66  66  67  69
Weather cov.....                       ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....                       SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............33  31  31  36  37  40  40  38  39  39  38  36
RH..............51  54  58  59  56  45  36  35  37  38  40  47
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   10  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.17  16  14  14  15  16  16  17  18  20  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.4 1.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 8.2 8.2 8.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  20  20  20  18  18  18  21  21  21
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100021  21  21  65  65  65  101 101 101 148 148 148

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated snow
                    showers early in the evening.
Min temperature.....22-25.
Max humidity........76-79 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph becoming
                    downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.Less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor around 9 PM.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68  67  67  66  61  55  48  43  38  32  31  30
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............39  36  34  32  31  30  29  28  28  26  25  24
RH..............38  43  50  55  59  61  63  65  69  73  77  79
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  9   8   6   5   4   3   3   3   4   3   2
20 FT wind gust.21  18  15  12  9   7   5       5   5       3
Mix hgt (kft)...6.7 6.7 6.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.24  24  24  14  14  14  8   8   8   8   8   8
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/1000142 142 142 21  21  21  7   7   7   5   5   5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) in the morning,
                    then becoming partly cloudy (50-60 percent)
                    with isolated rain and snow showers.
Max temperature.....45 at 6800 feet. 35 at 8600 feet.
Min humidity........25-28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4-7 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor, becoming fair at 1 PM, the good at 3 PM.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  29  30  37  41  45  55  57  60  64  63  62
Weather cov.....                                    ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....                                    RS  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............24  26  30  34  38  41  44  45  46  47  47  47
RH..............77  70  59  49  41  35  31  29  28  28  27  27
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
20 FT wind gust.                    7   7   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10004   4   4   25  25  25  53  53  53  60  60  60

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.

.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely with possible snow showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. Winds generally
less than 10 mph.

.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy with chance of showers. Lows around 30. Highs in
the upper 40s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Murrell
Requested by...JHaddon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111870.1/RIW
.DELDT 05/08/21
.EMAIL Andrew.hall@usda.gov


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