Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 031158
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Spot Forecast for Hogback fire...Virginia Department of Forestry
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
758 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 EDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Light rain early this morning brought less than a tenth of an inch
to the area. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop early this
afternoon and bring an additional one-quarter to one-half inch of rain
with locally higher amounts under the stronger storms.

Showers and storms will diminish this evening with relative humidity
values recovering to around 90 percent.

Additional thunderstorms return Tuesday, but likely not arriving until
late in the afternoon or evening. Additional rainfall totals
will generally be less than one-quarter of an inch, but heavier
if storms move over the area.



.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......50 percent increasing to 90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 13 to 21 mph increasing to 24 to 32 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 mph-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (72700 mph-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................11 increasing to 64.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  96  98  100 78
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............70  80  90  90  90
Temp............65  67  69  70  70
RH..............82  78  76  78  79
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  16  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..18  21  24  29  32
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............33  42  51  61  67
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1K.36  49  62  74  84

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
                    then chance of showers overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......70 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 25 to 33 mph becoming west around 10
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (64900 mph-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2600 mph-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................63 decreasing to 6.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........78     74     77     84     58     51
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............70     60     50     30     10     10
Temp............70     68     67     66     65     62
RH..............79     82     82     81     83     90
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 8   SW 7   SW 6   W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.17     16     14     13     13     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   2200   2200   1900   1400   800
Mixing wind......SW 33  SW 31  SW 30  W 28   W 23   W 14
LVORI...........3      3      3      3      4      6
ADI.............63     32     32     23     17     6
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      2
VRate mph-ft/1K.75     52     52     40     21     6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 13 to 22 mph increasing to 16 to 25 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 mph-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (89500 mph-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7 increasing to 22 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 62 in the afternoon before
                    decreasing 42 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     28     73     66     50     53
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10     10     20     30     30     40
Temp............61     66     72     76     80     81
RH..............90     85     77     69     58     55
20 ft wind......W 5    SW 6   SW 6   W 7    W 7    SW 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     16     18     18     17
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1100   2500   3600   4300   4400
Mixing wind......W 13   W 18   W 21   W 24   W 25   W 20
LVORI...........6      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.............3      18     34     52     92     70
Haines index....2      3      3      3      4      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.5      14     39     71     103    79

$$
Forecaster...Hysell
Requested by...Brad Carico
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2111305.1/RNK
.DELDT 05/03/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26


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