Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS72 KTAE 081314
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for N-25 Brier Creek...Eglin, AFB
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
914 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Dispersion index values will remain low today (below
20). A high pressure center will pass directly across the burn
site this afternoon. Under this high pressure dome, transport
winds will be very light, and this will be the main factor
keeping dispersions low. It will take until about 1600-1700 CDT
for a southerly seabreeze to kick in across the burn site, which
will come too late in the day to aid dispersions. However, a dry
air mass will help RH values drop to near 30 percent early this
afternoon, before the late afternoon seabreeze starts to moisten
the atmosphere.

Sunday will be quite different. Dispersions will become very high,
as southerly transport winds increase to nearly 20 mph. Relative
humidity will trend upward significantly compared with today, as
southerly flow off the Gulf brings in a muggier and more humid
air mass.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   3   4   8   9   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  70  73  75  77  78  79  78
RH..............48  39  34  32  30  30  31  33
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   1   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   6   7   7   8   10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   5   3   2   2   3   3
Dispersion idx..12  17  17  14  11  12  13  16
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........9   9   14  7   6   6   5   4   4   4   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  75  72  68  65  64  62  62  61  60  60  60
RH..............35  40  48  54  65  70  75  78  81  84  84  84
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.10  10  8   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   6   5   5   3   5   5   5   3   3
Dispersion idx..16  12  3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   5

.SUNDAY...
TIME (EDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........6   7   3   3   5   6   7   11  14  16  20  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  59  61  66  72  76  78  80  81  82  82  81
RH..............87  90  87  78  66  56  54  52  53  53  53  56
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   3   6   7   8   9   9   10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   10  11  13  14  14  14  16  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   10  16  22  23  23  23  22  22  21
Dispersion idx..2   2   5   17  45  78  79  81  81  79  76  71
LVORI...........6   6   5   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Haner
Requested by...David Grimm
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111969.0/TAE
.DELDT 05/08/21
.EMAIL david.grimm.5.ctr@us.af.mil


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