Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FNUS73 KTOP 061000
FWSTOP

Spot Forecast for 3 Corners...USFWS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
500 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 432-3929, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front is moving through the area early this morning. Winds
will shift to the northwest behind the boundary by 7 AM. North-northwest
winds will then increase to between 10 and 20 mph with gusts as high as
25 mph this morning and midday. Minimum relative humidity values will be
around 30 percent by late afternoon. Winds decrease this evening and turn
to the south by early tomorrow. A chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday
morning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4700-5000 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (10400-58400 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (60600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 OR low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   6   9   12  14  11  7   3   5   7   9   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............46  47  48  50  53  56  59  62  64  65  66  67
RH..............93  93  89  83  71  64  53  46  40  37  33  30
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   8   10  12  12  12  11  11  11  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.8   10  14  18  18  18  17  16  16  14  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.0 4.9
Haines index....5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100010  11  24  33  40  54  58  61  72  76  79  74

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......4000-5000 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1400 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (40200-70000 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor (900 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........8      6      4      2      2      3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............67     61     53     50     48     46
RH..............30     41     54     61     63     65
20 ft wind......N 6    N 6    E 3    S 3    S 3    S 5
20 ft wind gust.                     4
Mix hgt (ft)....5000   1400   600    300    300    300
Haines index....4      4      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100070     7      2      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (2700-19200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........16        49        70        61
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0         30        30        20
Temp............45        54        61        66
RH..............70        64        56        52
20 FT wind......S 5       S 6       S 9G12    S 9G13
Mix hgt (ft)....300       700       1300      1700
Haines index....4         4         3         3
SDspl kt-ft/10003         7         16        18

$$
Forecaster...Teefey
Requested by...Tim Menard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111647.0/TOP
.DELDT 05/05/21
.EMAIL tim_menard@fws.gov


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